Our main focus today is on the balance of this month and into next from an economics and charts perspective.  Because there is a split – quite obvious when you read financial headlines.

One faction is expecting “recession avoidance” because of the big, powerful, American economy.  The other still sees dead banks walking as the commercial real estate debacle is likely to take years to be fully revealed and acknowledged.

Of course a few headlines and such.  But for this particular weekend?  Making money always helps and we’re pleased with prospects for the period just ahead.

You may not be able to remain “married to optimism” though, and still get the most out of it.

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It all begins with rent.  From there, we see a computer software design pattern kick it.  From a single act of systemic compliance, a whole shitshow of logical consequences follows.  One on the previous, day after night.

There is a problem – existential in nature – that lurks with this “commerce model.”  Specifically, the issue is “How high can a deck of cards be stacked?”

Soon, all those Marxist backed “social movements” become as predictable as the DIM ARRAY command.

Our concern is now more elevated.  Because just as power used to be a two-dimensional world, we are now living in a multidimensional world.

No worries, it will all make sense when we build up the data model and kick it around a bit.

After the morning ChartPack, of course , and a few headlines.  While our charts focus on the odds of a bloodbath in markets ahead. Like this month…

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Which we hinted at in the UrbanSurvival. column Friday.  Today, we look into the rabbit hole and see how our “lookahead” is looking, if that makes sense.

Quiet and busy spring day and the scent of coronation silliness hangs heavy in the air.

So let’s focus on the useful part: Making a little money in markets and buying a solid defense against a chilling future.

We start by ordaining 3Chuck (Marketed as Chucky Kingness) and tell you about a Deep Fake video of the Fed boss, first…

No point getting too serious – it would wreck the weekend.

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This week, our research focuses on calendars behind human cycle recognition.  Ever since the (failed) 2012 “End of the World” predictions of others, we have been fascinated with the question “What did they get wrong?”

Turns out, there is plenty of opportunity to have screwed up a lot.

Worse is that the Mayan Long Count isn’t the only thing off.  Understand if some of this is right – even here and there – even things like Nostradamus might be off several years – which is why 1999 dating might be wrong to us, but have been right back then.

To make sure a fine time is had by all, however, we will begin this morning with $53 million in cash, crypto, and more Europol agents than you can count.  Seems the long-expected government crack-down on crypto as a crime tool has begun in earnest.

Then we have Fed Day – and we’ll see this afternoon how crazy things will get – next.

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A “mini focus” in our ChartPack considers “Country Rotation” of Super Powers – something which has been in place for more than 700-years.  Not often described, it’s more of a driver behind modern events than most realize.

Fed week is about to begin and with it, odd of at least a quarter point rate hike seems unavoidable.  But, behind this is another, less publicly debated issue.

Which we will discuss “behind closed doors” this morning.

After “the usual” hod heaped with headlines, we’ll inspect the rate issue a little deeper in our ChartPack section.

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Past global wars have never to such an extend, relied on the continued construction and operation of foreign assets.  As tensions continue to increase worldwide, but most noticeably in Ukraine and Taiwan, we can appreciate the changing role of “foreign assets.”

Today, we use our thought frameworks to look ahead to the coming few months for clues as to how life will evolved.

Like the classic “good news/bad news” jokes, we do have some “good news” (spoiler: No nuclear war) but some bad news; massive shortages of certain goods and a possible “line stop” on advances in technology.

Toss in our economic press releases of the day coupled with our ChartPack, and it’s another glorious spring day.

Or not.

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We call today’s discourse “Thousand Paper Cuts Trading” with good reason.

We begin this fine spring weekend by asking what do Sophia Loren, Stephen Boyd, Alec Guinness, James Mason, Christopher Plummer, Mel Ferrer, and Omar Sharif have in common?  If you guessed “That 1964 blockbuster “The Fall of the Roman Empire” you’d be right.

Which is really our main point this morning: Since to some of us old “geezerly” types, current events are popping right out of the Western Empire playbook.

With paper instead of a genuine coin of the realm.

With Bitcoin at $27,262 at press time, we think the global picture is on the verge of dimming, considerably.

Some navigation into Future discussion ahead in this morning’s extended ChartPack presentation is in order.

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“How do we sunset?  Let me count the ways…” Despite all the hype, Climate Change doesn’t even move our meter in today’s cold, hard viewing of Reality.

The smell of Depression is in the air.  For example, Public pessimism on the economy hits a new high, CNBC survey shows.  And about the leaders of the pack?  Depositors pull nearly $60bn from three US banks as Apple raises pressure are but two examples.  Mood swings, anyone?.

“Distraction issues” are failing the smell test.  For, if climate change was really going to happen, do you think insurance companies would still offer waterfront property coverage? Would China still be bringing new coal plants online?

A highly skilled entrepreneur I worked for (not too long ago) told me recently his 6th floor A-1A condo in South Florida (with a two story great room viewing the Intercoastal and the Atlantic) hasn’t had so much as a blip in getting heavyweight property and casualty insurance.

The way thinking people look at things, if the threat was real, waterfront homeowners would be dumping because their mortgages require insurance. Interesting to hear about Dan Pena’s views in this context.

My buddy’s condo is post-and-tension concrete. He sure as hell wouldn’t want to live in that kind of building in, oh, California, for fears of it “going 880” on he and his wife and their assistant.  But for hurricanes? About perfect with the extra heavy glass.

Post and tension is not our favorite, though.  With reason.  Check out 1 person killed, five injured in NYC parking garage collapse (nypost.com).

Still, having laid to rest immediate concerns on one front, the statistical reality of the Cosmic Russian Roulette game deserves a serious review along with other life-ending strategic threats.

In fact, according to the Fed itself, there hasn’t been a convertible domestic U.S. Dollar for over half a century.

“The $1 notes were authorized in 1963 as a replacement for $1 silver certificates that were being discontinued because of the need for silver coinage; $2 notes were authorized at the same time but were not printed and issued until 1976.”

So far, the paperhangers are winning, but we’ll see over time.

More immediate concerns threaten us now, so after a few headlines and the ChartPack we’ll be transitioning from “dismal science” to “dismal endings.”

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Some time back – perhaps a month or two – we mentioned a slight chance of a major rally based on use of “trading boxes.”  In our unconventional way of looking at markets, drawing of rectangles on charts offers some occasionally useful insights.

This weekend, a drill down a bit into the “trading boxes” which offer the idea that at least in the short term, there is a possibility of higher markets to nearly month-end.

Not that we do any more than “lunch money trading” but trading boxes have kept us from playing in the dangerous middle of the financial freeway this week.

Before that, a few headlines and a rather positive client note from my consigliere., Except that it moves up WW III.

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Consumer prices are just out and we’ll hit that first. But then some perspective on the future impacts of Inflation and how it will change our world. Mighty useful when making strategic life decisions. Because you can increase your odds of “making good financial calls” by picking the right assets to be heavy in, well in advance. Same with big-ticket spending. Helps to have an outline of the future, too.

As always, our subscriber reports are not for “me-too” people.  Because those folks generally fall into with a) victimhood groups or b) “captain’s off the bridge” thinking.

In other words, people who find it too much of a bother to plan to make it starts with making a plan.  Or, they are weak-willed and can’t be held to account for their results from negotiating “their own best future.”

Take it from someone with a few years on you: The best times you spend in life are with someone you love (and who responds in turn) and time you spend with calculators and history books. Money’s just how we keep score.

When you own the NOW, the FUTURE depends mainly on “remaining present to win.“

Spending on the future after CPI details, a few headlines, and the ChartPack, of course.

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China has been building relationships while the U.S. relies on “positional power.”  Which, in an age of changing resources, amounts to resting on our laurels while a challenger moves ahead.

At once, we have three (or more) potential war fronts along with a fall from grace for the U.S. dollar.

In our effort to handicap the global leadership race, we ponder a bit of “follow the money.”  Where it leads is not pretty.

Then we move into the weekend ChartPack where the same holds.  Charts are whispering the odds of a huge global economic shift are slowly taking root.

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Another adventure in our (partially) fictional Directorate 153 series of “fictionalized governmental speculations.”  We began to use this metaphorical framework when it became apparent to many “sources” that it could be personally hazardous to come right out publicly and explain what’s really going on in background.  Things most people are not aware of.

Subscribers are referred to the following articles which date from 2001 when we (how to say this?) “began to suspect things were not all as they appeared.”  With that, a fictionalize framework began.

12/02/2001    A Directorate 153?

09/05/2004    A man who knew Osama bin Laden – and a return visit to our fictitious Directorate 153 to see what’s next.

06/21/2009:  An Update from Directorate 153:  “We’re in control here” and where go the economic hit men and what it means to your world.

01/31/2010  The ‘Art’ of Social Engineering:  We revisit the mathematical roots of our hypothetical Directorate 153 to take a stab and when to expect terrorism’s next appearance…

November 7, 2010:  Using our fictitious Directorate 153, we look at some of the daily news headlines and look to the Tipping Point

November 12, 2014:  Time to look at Directorate 153 again as we search for how the Little Guys will be bent over next.

We won’t go through the whole list, but relative to today’s report, do pay particular attention to the more recent Directorate work on FTL (faster-than-light) communications.  Especially this report from 2020:

March 18, 2020:  Directorate 153: Entangled Communicators Welcome to another Lock-limit and crash risk day.

Which then led to visualization of data frontiers, courtesy of the same “well read source.” Which we didn’t specifically label D-153 in the Index but it’s found as August 1, 2020:  Faster Than Light Adventures.

Today, we head out to that low complex off to the side of a long runway out in the Shenandoah Valley and look in and the most recent progress.  Which sure looks akin to an ill-advised “stepping on the Dragon’s tail.”

After the ChartPack, plus ADP jobs data and a few headlines, of course.

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Was Friday’s run up into the close the end of a blow-off top?  Or, only the beginning of a mass hyperinflation?  Because signs are pointing in both directions.

If it happens, we will have to blame the Powell Expedient Fed.  Because an odd thing happens in America:  Squeakiest wheels get the most “grease.”  And we see the bankster/leach class as totally ignorant of holistic economics.

Granted, these observations are only apparent when you take off the government-colored glasses.  Which we will do this morning, forthwith.

A few headlines and then some analysis of a long-shot wave count now coming into view for markets over summer.

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