Fed Policy Compression Problems

A rather startling chart in this morning’s ChartPack series.  As we explore a line-up with the prototypical 1929 extreme blow-off and present day market behaviors.  We’ll outline what could be a financially devastating remainder of 2025.

TMB versus MMB. Yeah: Trump Means Business versus Money Means Business.  As long as it’s the War Party’s wars and pandemic plans.  Just freaking dandy.

Still, we pause long enough in our “twice weekly Devolution checks” to offer another chapter in our latest book.  On the art of Downsizing,

But even before that joy and partying breaks out (12 to go!) there’s still this matter of financial collapse and the crater in the JOLTS report ahead of the just out ADP Jobs report.

Oh, and a dilly of a ChartPack, if I do say so…The coming year as the potential to rival the slide into the Great Depression and we have a couple of charts that illustrate that risk.

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Hidden in Plain Sight

We could title this morning’s remarks something generic. Oh, like “How the World really works.” We might do that because how many people would either read (or absorb) a report titled…

“Transactionally-linked, Dynamical Business Model Behavior Using Anomalous Technologies Under Semi-Hierarchical Social Constraints.”

Yeah, it’s a mouthful and a mind full.

Yet, strangely – and this does get strange, 2025 appears to be the year that enough subsections of Ground Truth are being released that a cohesive patchwork of “interlocking conspiracies” might reveal themselves to be operating.

Other than meaning “All the Decks are Stacked” for small “investors” there are lots of other considerations, as well.

A few headlines will warm us up, but these are necessary because they are the telemetry of the (hidden) Dynamical Business Models.

We present this as a “slow but short read.”  Don’t be in a hurry to read through this morning’s report.  Take your time and play with the concepts as we run through them.

Still too obtuse?

Well, how about something shorter?  How’s this for a title, then:  “Understanding Linked Conspiracies.”

Better?

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2025’s Action Plan

This being a holiday, we will be focused mainly on the ChartPack. But we do have a few goodies…  This is the day of remembering what we’re doing and what Life is all about.

While it may sound a bit like Chairman Mao’s criticism-self-criticism, the modern student of management science will find many templates in the corporate world as well.

Our favored approach is pretty simple:  Review the data, compare these with last year, and – having identified gaps – work out a plan to close them in the coming year.

It’s not hard…until, that is, you get around to actually doing it.

Plus, we will share from recent videos we have been taking in that may improve other parts of your life.

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A Long Wave Look Ahead

The long – and larger – cycles in economics is our focus today.  Sure, a few stories off the wires with our (occasionally) acerbic remark.

But with the buzz of the presents wearing off, and perhaps still smarting a bit from our discussion of the economy’s “elevator to nowhere” problem (mythical growth versus inflation adjusted quality of life metrics, this is a good time to pause and reflect on “What next?”

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