Dimensioning Collapse

Yes, the anti-fragile crowd could be wrong. Complexity might actually speed up – not retard – financial collapse.

 It is entirely possible that while Nasim Taleb followers have been spouting off about how complexity will “save us” the exact opposite is likely true for reasons we will explore today.

This is not to diss Taleb’s book on fragility (Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto Book 3)  because it makes some interesting points.

Our counter to them is even more interesting because rather than approach from the blinders worn by mathematicians in general and risk managers in particular.  Left field events consume us as we adhere to a more generalist philosophy which doesn’t reduce to simply numerical estimation.

Humans in the loop matter greatly.  So does the gut.

Numbers like those potentially arising from an MCHVE – a massively correlated hyper-volatility event.  Like the one possibly just ahead.  That markets are already dancing around.

More on this after a few headlines and the (Scary!) ChartPack which will lead into this afternoon’s Fed rate decision and soft-shoe routine.

The world is in high-level musical chairs.  And the music is skipping beats – like it did Monday.  For today?  And early denial rally!

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Anticipating the Implosion

With our Aggregate index long-term top holding (for now) we can project how bad things are likely to become over the rest of the year. Into next, as well. Despite other flaws, the advice about “buying Christmas presents early” from VP Harris does begin to make sense when we go off dot-connecting.

Instead of a review of headlines and the ChartPack this morning, we’re  putting it all into one general theme from which the logical questions (and branching of inquiry) will be clear and logical.

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Social Security Contingencies (Part 2)

Although I’m not a financial advisor, we do serve up an interesting mix of ideas for dealing with Social Security benefit reductions should they come along.  Say, there’s a pretty safe bet, huh?

 Naturally, the fear porn industry is already offering projections.  But they are wildly premature.

On the other hand, some of the basic lifestyle choices that we’ve made over the last 20-years have really started to pay off big in terms of low cost of living and minimal operating costs.

So today we have that kind of Ben Franklin (ledger) discussion and kick around a lot of ways you can improve your cash position and lighten up on future expenses while the world hangs together.

After the ChartPack and some of the juicier headlines, of course.

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