A national holiday Monday was part of the reason we entered a short position ahead of the weekend.  In Wednesday’s report, we fretted about the odds of a large upside bolt as G20 nations are desperate to avoid the appearance of vulnerability of the global economic system to normal economic fluctuations.

Not that such things are bad.  It’s just that they can  get out of hand when conditions are just so.  Falling confidence – suspicious economic reports totally overblowing economic strength, and prospects for a better life.

We are, as some readers have expressed it, already in a “stealth Depression” which – with all the major homeless camps and illegals pouring in – sure have that Hooverville replay vibe to this.

This being the weekend, our focus is mainly on our ChartPack.  Based on the long-held idea here that a meta index – comprised of multiple indicators – can give a far more accurate view of market shenanigans than single indices.

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We continue to evolve a “soft science” of waveform similarities. But getting this part of the present market decline has been enjoyable so far.

One of my great joys in Life is being able to pay lots of income tax.  Not because Elaine can’t spend better than Congress. But because it means we are making enough that it’s all good.

Our topic selection this morning deals with “where next” and in this regard, the answer is “down, silly!”  The issue is not which train station, but which set of tracks to get there.

See, in our work on Futuring, one of the joys of a deep realization of the Many Worlds Interpretation MWI of quantum mechanics is that yes, the Future is constantly dividing and branching.  But, what most don’t realize is that there is a similar (if not equal) rejoining of branches.

Thus, one of the mechanisms of successful long-term predictors (like G.A. Stewart‘s work on Nostradamus quatrains) is that both the divergences/splits are comprehended, but so are the rejoins.

It’s in seeing this (at a deep, emotional level) that gives us an appreciation for the cyclicity behind history.  That is, Everything Under the Sun has been attempted (more or less).  Just not launched from present moment.

This means when you next experience a Mandela Effect moment, stop and ask yourself “Is this a break to a new timeline, or is it a rejoin of a previous line – one where Nelson Mandela did NOT die in jail. And where Jiffy peanut butter was not Jif.”

Sticky problems, these.  And that’s even before we get to the ChartPack!

So bean up, pahdnah and let’s ride. The ADP numbers have just crossed!

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Our September only gains closed the month +9.8 percent. Yes, this pencils out to about 300 percent per year.   Remarkably, we have readers who are doing even better than us.

We don’t approach stocks as “investing” anymore.  We treat the market like a wager. When you do that, things like dollar-cost-averaging get tossed out the window.  You’d never go to the track and place half your bet before the bell and half on the stretch, would you?

In fact, it’s so simple – and so much like wagering – that I considered writing a book (and website) about the technique. I was going to call it “InvestorsAnonymous.org” – even lined up the name.

But my consigliere said “Why share? The more people that use it, the lower your returns will be.” And he’s right.   (Pssst! Buddy! Wanna buy a domain name – cheap?)

Still, since you’ve been so good to us (by subscribing) the least we can do is share some of this month’s stats and a few “gambling inspirations” to get you pointed in the right direction.

After we get through a few headlines and the ChartPack.

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Our outlooks provide for a drop of more than 1,000 Dow points before month-end. Today is Bounce. Though we have to admit a certain fascination with learning whether the Replay/Rhyme on 1929 can possibly be that deterministic.

In other words, one path forward through a chaos theory window is to conduct high-intensity study of starting points.  Since theory holds that the more is known about initiation states, the more range-bound solution sets (to chaos) become.  Hence, improved insight into Future.

In case you already know this (and our love of differential stochastics), we offer a short discussion of how to become a “Vicious Consumer” as mentioned on UrbanSurvival.com this week.

Looking ahead, while a projected thousand-point crash (in a day) may seem like a very Big Deal, it’s really not. Since percentagewise it’s relatively common for this portion of the major Wave 3 Decline of the economic long wave. We could have 10 such drops (circuit breakers notwithstanding) through the end of this year. In fact, before Turkey!

Because if the rhyme doesn’t change, we could be in for a decline of more than six-thousand points in a two-day period before Thanksgiving. Try first week of November.

Yes, things are getting serious and about to go totally off the rails. But remember who was telling you in August to get the Fall garden in?

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Calling market tops is dicey at best. But, we have been calling the July 31st top as “it” for over a month now.  But that’s only a small part of the forecaster’s dilemma. The attending problem is “Where to from here?”

Today, a deep-dive into waveforms, history, momentum dynamics, and even some high-leverage gambling notes.

A few headlines first – which is the kind of thing that adds meaning and context to not sleeping in on a Saturday morning…

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Weren’t we offering this same kind of advice back in the fall of 2008?  Yes, sad to say. But if we toss in Turkey as a coming front (with Greece) there are 9-fronts open today (or is it 10?) and goods are topped up, you have plans for survival gardening as season permit and you have a “bridge” of stored food to get you to the next planting and growing season.  Hopefully, nothing will go wrong.

We are, however, unlike 2008, not on the verge of a well-contained economic debacle (did anyone ever go to jail? No?  World War 3 is more about 8-billion hungry humans trying to work out who will end up with enough long-term resources to persist into the second half of this century.

With wars active in Palestine, Syria, more recently in Armenia and Ukraine, plus with war in the wings for Taiwan (potentially as early as this weekend) and with North Korea setting itself up in an arms-for-food relationship with Russia, one could argue that a World War is what’s brewing up. ..

Now toss in the cartel alignment with Russia via Mexico, the leaky narco-state next door and toss in a Pollyanna administration which is fighting the wrong war (climate and pronouns, not food and energy) and certainly nothing could go wrong. Right!  At least that’s the watery pabulum served by corporate media which dares not upset the financial apple cart.

Which we will roll through today along with our most worrisome ChartPack,; which has a Puetz window opening Friday and a potential decline to a crash window next week, since the all-time of this Wave 2 rally that we’ve been in seems to be in and the Big Drop just ahead.

Like the Log Jammer at Magic Mountain, a few decades back, except this ride will feature different screams and the splashing of fake money, not water of the sluice.

You in line for that?

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We are entering a critical 10-day window now.  Yes, it is the economy, stupid.  And despite the hype, there’s a real lack of solid growth and anything that could be sold to the marginally aware as opportunity.

A few headlines, of course.  But our main focus on weekends is mainly on the charts.  And for me personally? How to put the next 2 percent a week on the book and doing it more often.

Oh,  for the math challenged: 2 percent a week compounds t0 280 percent per year.  And crazy as it seems, we have readers to do even better than this.

Two worlds out there: Living to work while the evil twin features working to live.

Now, let’s review the opening of the Puetz Window.

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Forgive our focus on odds of war this month over Taiwan.  But… A dark of the moon is at hand. Weather has started to move out of the potential battle theater.  And we see a high probability that China will make its move before additional U.S. arms land in the R.O.C.

This is an incredibly complex situation – far beyond the understanding of people who have not deeply studied the countries, people, and politics of what’s involved.

We’ve reduced some of it to a flow chart today, but more important is how China is on the verge of replaying the economic role of the U.S. during our Great Depression.

The situation becomes even higher stakes when we look at recent reports on how the semi-retired leadership of China has apparently increased pressure on president Xi in recent weeks.

The question – Will China Go for it –  is far from moot.

But then we have Consumer Prices just out today, too.  Which – along with anything that might happen between now and next Wednesday – will also feed into the pending Fed rate decision one week out.

A good time will be had by all, we’re assured.  But in case you’re not big on platitudes and false reassurances from a demonstrably crooked government, keep reading…

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Football weather is our opening topic today because it’s a mood indicator.  When people are stressed, normalcy looks pretty good.  Last refuge of denial.

Yet, as we “line ’em up” today, we can see that markets still can’t be counted “down and out” yet.  Although, depending on how next week goes – plus events in UKR and Taiwan – the way forward is being cast even now.

If you haven’t read it, a very good (allegorical?) description of how the future arrives is contained in Michael Crichton’s book Timeline.  The street-level version is it’s like watching the tiny bubbles on the bottom of a glass of ginger ale. As they ascend to the surface, the grow in size. Potentialities increase.

The day-to-day news flow is a lot like that.  We are stuck, most of us, looking at only a thin horizontal view slice through the glass.  Yet, with practice, we first open to the bubbles are future getting ready to “pop” and then the real fun begins.

Spotting the tiniest of bubbles before our today slice.  The ones that will grow largest – and hold the most sway over our lives – in days, weeks, and months to come.

We’ll skip the ginger ale, though.  Coffee or tea is best at this hour.  Though bubbly is nice. Just not so early in the day.

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Today we explore how basic human exploration drives modern behaviors. Not only in Finance, but in all sorts of human activities.  There are some things humans “just do” is the overview.

We range, rest, war, forage…and around these activities human thought has filled-in things for us.

Which means a lot in the investment universe.  Some time spent learning ranging seems worth effort if we’re to remain ahead of the crowd.

First, a sampling of news items and then the ChartPack which put in a surprisingly weak Tuesday.   Where we literally made a “side of fries” for the day’s trading.

Pass the catsup and warm the coffee?

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But which one? The ones overseas or the one on American soil?  We have data to review.

Plus in our ChartPack section, we’ll explain why we elected to carry a cash position into the weekend.

With odds of a peaceful weekend in trouble, we’ll keep tightly focused on the Big Things that really matter most.

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Our focus piece today is the “action plan” which became necessary when we looked at the most valuable thing to own in the future.  That research kept coming back to food and water above all else.  I will be making a grocery pickup this afternoon and for just two of us living a simple life, it’s a thousand a month to eat plus have a daily libation. Government inflation and experienced inflation are gapping.

The gardening skills are only part of the equation.  The rest?  Ah! That’s a time management problem.  Since I’m a huge fan of both “Deep Work” and “the pomodoro technique”  as focus tools, the logical marriage follows even out here in our 70s and 80s.

Before we get to the face-stuffing, though, a look at important headlines along with the odds of a sudden month-end selloff now that we have “Kissed the Trend Lines.”  But will we reverse down? Ask in a week.

Stick around – there’s a lot to cover…starting with the ADP Jobs numbers just out.

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Why did I sit out going short this weekend?  Therein lies a useful tale about charts, caution, time value, risk and every other financial term you can conjure up.

Oh, don’t get me wrong!  I’m not going bullish, or anything outright stupid like that.  It’s just a gut feeling about “pre-holiday rallies” which (gotten wrong) can be expensive.

On the other hand, at least one subscriber (with a better track record that me!) was considering a weekend short, so it’s a close-enough call it’s absolutely worth talking about.

Sure, sure, a few headlines first, but the whole point of Peoplenomics is to live the best lives we can, and putting our money to work for us, is one aspect, for sure.

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