Covid-19: Social Problem-Solver?

One of our readers requested we turn a carefully tuned eye toward some of the longer-term outcomes of CV-19.  Among the question is “What is it doing to the divorce rate?”

We can already see a wide swath of “social destruction” because of the virus.  Yet, in the longer term, is it possible that “What doesn’t kill us might make us stronger?

Indeed a perplexing – and hardly Christmas-like – topic.  But in order to develop a clear-headed model of what’s ahead for next year, we need to begin on some of the really “big picture” items and see where they lead us.

It’s a big shopping cart, too.  So we’ll hop to it as soon as a few of the morning’s big data points (ADP report is just out, for example) and then we will look at the charts to divine what’s ahead.

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No Collapse for 30-Days?

That’s an interesting bet given the VIX was under 20 Friday.  Means no one is afraid.  Saw those levels in February, didn’t we?

We’re guessing there will be more presidential election concerns and possibly conflict.  The Middle East beckons.  Since war is the historical outcome of economic declines, we should expect something, somewhere to light up and head south.

Not out West, necessarily.

China talks as though Biden’s already seated. And on Wall Street, the good times are on a roll – one that has cost nearly $4-trillion worth of paper so far.

What few assets America has need to be carefully managed.  Because if we do see anything approaching an election reversal (or even widespread lack of faith in the outcome) in coming weeks, people are “wearing their politics on their sleaves.”  That’s the makings of domestic conflict.

We have crossed into an odd national head-space:  Me-me-me has become a strain of Us-us-us…but few have figured out yet that the very “coalitions” which begged for personal sign-ons will now (in good-old Bolshevik style) turn first on those who supported “them” most.

As a result, we expect that when (with a small asterisk by *if*) the dems get seated, they will be steered away from further devaluation.

The reason for this would be China.  Which holds a lot of U.S. assets.  By clever manipulations, they will continue to be able to use our drug money (via cartels, mixed by their financial alchemists and banks).  Which would allow the continued shopping spree to buy North America out from under the working class…

Mainly head lines and charts today.  Ure’s in down time.

This is the day we’re doing our turkey, since I worked Wednesday night. Champagne and “gimme the bird” had to wait.  Today, revenge is mine.

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High Data Density Day

Some interesting calculations about how the present-day “record Dow” is doing little more than a repeat of (gulp!) 1929. Want that target date for a possible “final high?”

Beyond that, however, there is a pre-turkey rasher of data to sort through since the Fed gov will be closed tomorrow (birds of a what?).  Friday will be a half-day for the market.

Also Friday, our annual Turkey Leftovers report…always a hit.

With all this – and a reminder don’t forget to defrost the bird – we launch into coffee and wondering how long this ol’ rock will hang together…

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