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We are entering a critical 10-day window now.  Yes, it is the economy, stupid.  And despite the hype, there’s a real lack of solid growth and anything that could be sold to the marginally aware as opportunity.

A few headlines, of course.  But our main focus on weekends is mainly on the charts.  And for me personally? How to put the next 2 percent a week on the book and doing it more often.

Oh,  for the math challenged: 2 percent a week compounds t0 280 percent per year.  And crazy as it seems, we have readers to do even better than this.

Two worlds out there: Living to work while the evil twin features working to live.

Now, let’s review the opening of the Puetz Window.

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Forgive our focus on odds of war this month over Taiwan.  But… A dark of the moon is at hand. Weather has started to move out of the potential battle theater.  And we see a high probability that China will make its move before additional U.S. arms land in the R.O.C.

This is an incredibly complex situation – far beyond the understanding of people who have not deeply studied the countries, people, and politics of what’s involved.

We’ve reduced some of it to a flow chart today, but more important is how China is on the verge of replaying the economic role of the U.S. during our Great Depression.

The situation becomes even higher stakes when we look at recent reports on how the semi-retired leadership of China has apparently increased pressure on president Xi in recent weeks.

The question – Will China Go for it –  is far from moot.

But then we have Consumer Prices just out today, too.  Which – along with anything that might happen between now and next Wednesday – will also feed into the pending Fed rate decision one week out.

A good time will be had by all, we’re assured.  But in case you’re not big on platitudes and false reassurances from a demonstrably crooked government, keep reading…

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Football weather is our opening topic today because it’s a mood indicator.  When people are stressed, normalcy looks pretty good.  Last refuge of denial.

Yet, as we “line ’em up” today, we can see that markets still can’t be counted “down and out” yet.  Although, depending on how next week goes – plus events in UKR and Taiwan – the way forward is being cast even now.

If you haven’t read it, a very good (allegorical?) description of how the future arrives is contained in Michael Crichton’s book Timeline.  The street-level version is it’s like watching the tiny bubbles on the bottom of a glass of ginger ale. As they ascend to the surface, the grow in size. Potentialities increase.

The day-to-day news flow is a lot like that.  We are stuck, most of us, looking at only a thin horizontal view slice through the glass.  Yet, with practice, we first open to the bubbles are future getting ready to “pop” and then the real fun begins.

Spotting the tiniest of bubbles before our today slice.  The ones that will grow largest – and hold the most sway over our lives – in days, weeks, and months to come.

We’ll skip the ginger ale, though.  Coffee or tea is best at this hour.  Though bubbly is nice. Just not so early in the day.

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Today we explore how basic human exploration drives modern behaviors. Not only in Finance, but in all sorts of human activities.  There are some things humans “just do” is the overview.

We range, rest, war, forage…and around these activities human thought has filled-in things for us.

Which means a lot in the investment universe.  Some time spent learning ranging seems worth effort if we’re to remain ahead of the crowd.

First, a sampling of news items and then the ChartPack which put in a surprisingly weak Tuesday.   Where we literally made a “side of fries” for the day’s trading.

Pass the catsup and warm the coffee?

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But which one? The ones overseas or the one on American soil?  We have data to review.

Plus in our ChartPack section, we’ll explain why we elected to carry a cash position into the weekend.

With odds of a peaceful weekend in trouble, we’ll keep tightly focused on the Big Things that really matter most.

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Our focus piece today is the “action plan” which became necessary when we looked at the most valuable thing to own in the future.  That research kept coming back to food and water above all else.  I will be making a grocery pickup this afternoon and for just two of us living a simple life, it’s a thousand a month to eat plus have a daily libation. Government inflation and experienced inflation are gapping.

The gardening skills are only part of the equation.  The rest?  Ah! That’s a time management problem.  Since I’m a huge fan of both “Deep Work” and “the pomodoro technique”  as focus tools, the logical marriage follows even out here in our 70s and 80s.

Before we get to the face-stuffing, though, a look at important headlines along with the odds of a sudden month-end selloff now that we have “Kissed the Trend Lines.”  But will we reverse down? Ask in a week.

Stick around – there’s a lot to cover…starting with the ADP Jobs numbers just out.

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Why did I sit out going short this weekend?  Therein lies a useful tale about charts, caution, time value, risk and every other financial term you can conjure up.

Oh, don’t get me wrong!  I’m not going bullish, or anything outright stupid like that.  It’s just a gut feeling about “pre-holiday rallies” which (gotten wrong) can be expensive.

On the other hand, at least one subscriber (with a better track record that me!) was considering a weekend short, so it’s a close-enough call it’s absolutely worth talking about.

Sure, sure, a few headlines first, but the whole point of Peoplenomics is to live the best lives we can, and putting our money to work for us, is one aspect, for sure.

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Today, we consider that as investors, we can pretty much own anything.  Which gets us smack-dab to “What’s worth owning?”  Not just for today, but for a definable period.  Say the next 10-years. What do you buy?

It’s a long discussion but interesting. Because while we all like to be lazy about investing, there may be best returns in the future by getting up off the couch.  We’ll explain.

Our caution about being short the market this week has paid off with the futures pointing higher.  So in the ChartPack we will look at the next “kiss of Death” contact with trend channels.

Plus a few headlines as the world exits from Peak Prosperity into whatever follows that.

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We will spend a few minutes on the “Cycletron” spreadsheet after the ChartPack today. Looking at some ideas about the future that may be useful in plotting your own course to, and through, what seems to be coming.

As you’ll remember, I built a spreadsheet that lets you consider a range of starting points from the American Revolutionary period, and then plug-in various socioeconomic cycle-lengths as candidates and see where certain harmonics of historical events might be timed.

Along with this, we have the usual highlights of the week ahead, plus the overnight wires to tear down and consider for impacts.

In short, a nice, relaxing summer weekend morning.

Except of course for…

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We don’t know where the idea of directed energy weapons being used on American targets came from, but it does make for a curious line of inquiry.  Which we will take up this morning after a couple of other items.

Perhaps the largest of which is the ChartPack, which as we have been telling you has been pointing to the imminent start of a Wave 3 down that is likely to last into early next year and could see markets halved from present levels.

Of course, there’s the general news flow, as well.  Including fresh droppings of Housing Starts not to mention the Fed Industrial Utilization numbers just after the open.

Ready for a really, really excellent time?  Well, this may not be it…

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We needed a tool for test-fitting economic cycle lengths from the American Revolutionary War period. So, here it is. Not to be confused with the Cyclotron in physics.

What? You don’t wake up with software/cycle questions in your head on Saturday morning?  What are you, normal or something?

Before we speak with Abby Normal, a few headlines and the ChartPack will line up how things are. Here on what’s looking suspiciously like a mash-up of WW1, the Crash of ’29, with a side order of WW3.

Which threatens to go even more off the rails over the coming three weeks.

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While we await data, some reflection on where the notion of “five steps to a market move” may be rooted.  One of the most interesting notions in a while (lassoed from my office chair) is the one that says just as people handle Death Grieving with five stations, so too a deep psychological drama is at play in markets, perhaps.

I love this kind of open-ended “test fitting” of ideas to see what works, and what doesn’t.  A kind of nuts and bolts of concept extensions.  Greatly occupying for the ADHD in us all.

Of course, there’s also the matter of Consumer Prices tomorrow which we’ll lead with.  I mean, rather predictable, isn’t it?  That’s the “omics” most people are interested in…

Time to read some tea leaves and coffee grounds…

And run some biorhythms, too, because we may each be the tea leaves and coffee grounds.

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The market decline this week may have marked the end of Wave II.  Which would be, in Elliott Wave counts and trend channels be the rally lasting about 192 days from 2022 lows.  Which was preceded by Wave 1 down from November 8, 2021.

Today, we consider our ChartPack and wonder how far down we could fall.

Not to be a spoiler but market levels half of two week ago levels seems increasingly likely.

What the present waveform suggest is not only purely economic in scope, but will lead into global war.  That is, if history continues with this kind of Rhyming pattern.

This morning, a short summary of how we got here, where trends are pointing.  And how the Fitch downgrade of American treasuries – glum as that was – is likely a “You ain’t seen nothing, yet.”

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