george@ure.net

“How do we sunset?  Let me count the ways…” Despite all the hype, Climate Change doesn’t even move our meter in today’s cold, hard viewing of Reality.

The smell of Depression is in the air.  For example, Public pessimism on the economy hits a new high, CNBC survey shows.  And about the leaders of the pack?  Depositors pull nearly $60bn from three US banks as Apple raises pressure are but two examples.  Mood swings, anyone?.

“Distraction issues” are failing the smell test.  For, if climate change was really going to happen, do you think insurance companies would still offer waterfront property coverage? Would China still be bringing new coal plants online?

A highly skilled entrepreneur I worked for (not too long ago) told me recently his 6th floor A-1A condo in South Florida (with a two story great room viewing the Intercoastal and the Atlantic) hasn’t had so much as a blip in getting heavyweight property and casualty insurance.

The way thinking people look at things, if the threat was real, waterfront homeowners would be dumping because their mortgages require insurance. Interesting to hear about Dan Pena’s views in this context.

My buddy’s condo is post-and-tension concrete. He sure as hell wouldn’t want to live in that kind of building in, oh, California, for fears of it “going 880” on he and his wife and their assistant.  But for hurricanes? About perfect with the extra heavy glass.

Post and tension is not our favorite, though.  With reason.  Check out 1 person killed, five injured in NYC parking garage collapse (nypost.com).

Still, having laid to rest immediate concerns on one front, the statistical reality of the Cosmic Russian Roulette game deserves a serious review along with other life-ending strategic threats.

In fact, according to the Fed itself, there hasn’t been a convertible domestic U.S. Dollar for over half a century.

“The $1 notes were authorized in 1963 as a replacement for $1 silver certificates that were being discontinued because of the need for silver coinage; $2 notes were authorized at the same time but were not printed and issued until 1976.”

So far, the paperhangers are winning, but we’ll see over time.

More immediate concerns threaten us now, so after a few headlines and the ChartPack we’ll be transitioning from “dismal science” to “dismal endings.”

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Some time back – perhaps a month or two – we mentioned a slight chance of a major rally based on use of “trading boxes.”  In our unconventional way of looking at markets, drawing of rectangles on charts offers some occasionally useful insights.

This weekend, a drill down a bit into the “trading boxes” which offer the idea that at least in the short term, there is a possibility of higher markets to nearly month-end.

Not that we do any more than “lunch money trading” but trading boxes have kept us from playing in the dangerous middle of the financial freeway this week.

Before that, a few headlines and a rather positive client note from my consigliere., Except that it moves up WW III.

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Consumer prices are just out and we’ll hit that first. But then some perspective on the future impacts of Inflation and how it will change our world. Mighty useful when making strategic life decisions. Because you can increase your odds of “making good financial calls” by picking the right assets to be heavy in, well in advance. Same with big-ticket spending. Helps to have an outline of the future, too.

As always, our subscriber reports are not for “me-too” people.  Because those folks generally fall into with a) victimhood groups or b) “captain’s off the bridge” thinking.

In other words, people who find it too much of a bother to plan to make it starts with making a plan.  Or, they are weak-willed and can’t be held to account for their results from negotiating “their own best future.”

Take it from someone with a few years on you: The best times you spend in life are with someone you love (and who responds in turn) and time you spend with calculators and history books. Money’s just how we keep score.

When you own the NOW, the FUTURE depends mainly on “remaining present to win.“

Spending on the future after CPI details, a few headlines, and the ChartPack, of course.

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China has been building relationships while the U.S. relies on “positional power.”  Which, in an age of changing resources, amounts to resting on our laurels while a challenger moves ahead.

At once, we have three (or more) potential war fronts along with a fall from grace for the U.S. dollar.

In our effort to handicap the global leadership race, we ponder a bit of “follow the money.”  Where it leads is not pretty.

Then we move into the weekend ChartPack where the same holds.  Charts are whispering the odds of a huge global economic shift are slowly taking root.

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Another adventure in our (partially) fictional Directorate 153 series of “fictionalized governmental speculations.”  We began to use this metaphorical framework when it became apparent to many “sources” that it could be personally hazardous to come right out publicly and explain what’s really going on in background.  Things most people are not aware of.

Subscribers are referred to the following articles which date from 2001 when we (how to say this?) “began to suspect things were not all as they appeared.”  With that, a fictionalize framework began.

12/02/2001    A Directorate 153?

09/05/2004    A man who knew Osama bin Laden – and a return visit to our fictitious Directorate 153 to see what’s next.

06/21/2009:  An Update from Directorate 153:  “We’re in control here” and where go the economic hit men and what it means to your world.

01/31/2010  The ‘Art’ of Social Engineering:  We revisit the mathematical roots of our hypothetical Directorate 153 to take a stab and when to expect terrorism’s next appearance…

November 7, 2010:  Using our fictitious Directorate 153, we look at some of the daily news headlines and look to the Tipping Point

November 12, 2014:  Time to look at Directorate 153 again as we search for how the Little Guys will be bent over next.

We won’t go through the whole list, but relative to today’s report, do pay particular attention to the more recent Directorate work on FTL (faster-than-light) communications.  Especially this report from 2020:

March 18, 2020:  Directorate 153: Entangled Communicators Welcome to another Lock-limit and crash risk day.

Which then led to visualization of data frontiers, courtesy of the same “well read source.” Which we didn’t specifically label D-153 in the Index but it’s found as August 1, 2020:  Faster Than Light Adventures.

Today, we head out to that low complex off to the side of a long runway out in the Shenandoah Valley and look in and the most recent progress.  Which sure looks akin to an ill-advised “stepping on the Dragon’s tail.”

After the ChartPack, plus ADP jobs data and a few headlines, of course.

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Was Friday’s run up into the close the end of a blow-off top?  Or, only the beginning of a mass hyperinflation?  Because signs are pointing in both directions.

If it happens, we will have to blame the Powell Expedient Fed.  Because an odd thing happens in America:  Squeakiest wheels get the most “grease.”  And we see the bankster/leach class as totally ignorant of holistic economics.

Granted, these observations are only apparent when you take off the government-colored glasses.  Which we will do this morning, forthwith.

A few headlines and then some analysis of a long-shot wave count now coming into view for markets over summer.

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Old Man Labs here is planning another project. This one gets into the realms of the really weird.  But trust me, it will sound like fun (interesting?) when I walk you through it.

For those who haven’t been around as long as this site – which will be 25-years in September (basis UrbanSurvival.com web domain) or December (basis the first Achive.org retrievable page), a waltz down memory lane is in order.

We have partnered with some impressive people in our pursuits.  Such was the work on the 93-year economic cycle which is now due.  And there was tinkering around the edges of word frequency (on the net) associated with a changing future.

All those projects can be “sewed up in a rag” and labeled “Beat the Future.”

When it became clear that wasn’t the real problem beating future – living long enough to see it was – we turned our attention to the Light Crown idea (2016) and then the Speed Crown (2017-18) because there looked to be much promise to the use of coherent light for age reduction when used in combination with other (less sketchy) pharmaceutical notions.

Wife Elaine will pass 80 in just over 3-weeks.  And my next odometer rollover will be to 75. But even out here, Excellence of Thought matters. And although we both carry the Alzheimer APOE ε4  allele, we’re trying to put the brains to as much use as possible and keep them in well-tuned condition.

Interestingly, as much as 15-25 percent of U.S. adults may have this condition and it’s interesting because it literally makes aging more painful.  Since APOE ε4 allele elevates the expressions of inflammatory factors and promotes Alzheimer’s disease progression: A comparative study based on Han and She populations in the Wenzhou area – PubMed (nih.gov).

Bottom line of the lead-in to this morning’s report?

Lot of important shit to do if we’re going to avoid some pain as aging seniors who are bent on “living life to the max.”

Which we get into after the ChartPack and a close inspection of why a particular trade made this week worked out well. We made a little lunch money, so a use case in the Charts.

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No question, Price is the big factor in day trading.  But when comes to Futuring, prepping, and staying the hell out of harm’s way, time signals in the market are where it’s at.

Paradoxically, higher price prediction confidence rises, the lower time confidence drops.  This incestuous relationship buggers up everything from military intelligence assessments to simple lunch money trading.  Precision is one domain decrements precision in another.

So, today after a few headlines in passing, we’ll ponder deeper in this part of the pond in our weekend ChartPack.

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Life Extension has a hard limit defined by personal income over time. Wife Elaine nailed it at breakfast Monday when she said “You can’t have one without the Other.” Life extension mainly costs money and investments usually cost time.

Today, we’ll look at this balancing problem.  And begin to draw an odd kind of outlook in a   Financial demography sense.

While the mental/spiritual aspects of extended lives is touted everywhere from Biblical passages to modern religious groups, the underlying fiscal support gets lesser play.  Comes down to “How long can you afford to Live?” With the secondary question “How much time can you buy?”

Some frame working of both on tap today, after a look at markets for the week (so far) and our latest dart toss at the FOMC whose announcement is (as of press time) about five-hours distant.

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Between Banking (and “special treatment for the rich”) along with one war hot, one brewing, a former president facing a possible perp-walk, and rampant inflation in hard assets, it’s a hard weekend not to have the jitters.

Sorry to say:  We can’t alleviate too many.  But, our steely-eyed view of things will remind you that it all “works out in the end.”  Only question is “Whose end?”

Of special interest today is the ChartPack – which promises an even-more interesting week just ahead.

The Biggest of Big Deals, then, will be the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting which begins Tuesday and will release a rate decision Wednesday afternoon during an otherwise very quiet week ahead.  Unless you’re Zelensky, Xi, Trump, Biden, or maybe even you.

Our first item on the agenda today, however, is not the world’s most delicately balanced forecast of what’s ahead.  Because we have zero control over that.

Instead, we focus on personal time management because, when the news gets turned off, We the People are the ones “For whom the clock ticks.”

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I was wrong when I thought my book Packing to Die: Suitcase between your ears” was done.  It turns out that upon reflection, there is still a chapter missing. Maybe even a missing “next book.”

Which we will rectify today with an additional chapter that will be added to the book (on Kindle) in the coming week, or two.

So in addition to threats to the banking system, Ukraine being on a short (and soon glowing?) fuse, political wonkyspeak of politicians without clue but beyond number, we do keep our focus on things that really matter in today’s report.

A next chapter of Packing to Die.  Which hopefully won’t be too relevant or too soon.

Along with market and other sorts of fallout, too. Can the lid stay on until Easter?

We apologize in advance for a 28-page report of >5,700 words.  But there’s trouble afoot and much to cover.

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Silicon Valley Bank is likely not to be the only bank in this period to go down. Because in our work in long wave economics, for more than 20-years, the severity of economic recessions (and “depressions”) the number of failing banks in a period is a good (early) indicator as to severity.

For example, in the Dot Com Bust, less than three dozen banks failed.  The Housing Bust saw more than 500 folded.

And now we see the “Leading Edge of Tainter” – the urge to walk out and away from a failing economy – with the takeover this week of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

In addition, the break becomes even more stark when we roll out this weeks update (in our ChartPack) to the long-running Replaying 1929 charts.  The next few weeks could be a 24-karat bitch.

But no point in getting upset about it.  Economic agnostics (like us) are usually well positioned to make money in fair weather, or foul.  Certainly, the case again this week.

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We won’t even pretend to explain this to non-subscribers in a paragraph. But we will hint that when mushrooms appear, anything less than a ELE will be a final prepping opportunity.  And we are getting ready for the Final Clicks to fulfill that.

A lot of this has been covered elsewhere, such as in our Building Your Own Home Intelligence Platform, and such.  Plus, if you have the power, modernity is only a passing fad between famines.

So, a couple of happy-pills and you should be ready for some serious “thinking the unthinkable” today as we venture into a dandy question raised by WTHS and WmoRR this week in Monday comments.

Will “The End” be worth attending? It will likely depend on how your preps are now, what you’ve got ready for Final Clicks, and matters like those 2nd A. support tools…

But we need to begin with the bursting of the Global Confidence Bubble.  We pick up, in a sense, from where we left it with the Leading Edge of Tainter – that we covered last week.

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