george@ure.net

Busy but cold as we roll into the ChartPack this morning.  After that, another chapter of Building Your Personal Ark.

Our column review of headlines will be somewhat abbreviated due to the weather. But we will have Retail Sales and the Trade data.

Weather here is supposed to warm up into the 40’s later on.  But we likely lost the tomato plants in the greenhouse even with the diesel heat on.  They just don’t like cold temps.  Still, been gathering lots of useful vegtel along the way. Never a plant lost without teaching us some of the errors of our gardening plans.

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With all the Global Warming shills missing, we ponder another angle to cold weather: Trading risks for the small investor.  Because out here, those are very real considerations.

We won’t just look at “How do you trade with the power down.”  Goes a lot deeper than power, my friend.

Which we will get into as we look at the weather maps for what’s coming and George layers-up for a run into town for “pre-emptive supplies” that include things like PVC and CPVC pipe caps.  You just can’t be too prepared on winter weekends like this one looming.

Is it a little silly to frame “offshore storm tactics” with onshore day trading in markets?  Well, no, not this week. Not around here, anyway.  The template is pretty similar when you start thinking about it.

At any rate, purely a chart based discussion this morning because we are in an inflection zone where any of three possible future tracks will be decided in the coming week or two.  We’ll explain.

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You study the UrbanSurvival site, you read G.A. Stewart’s take and finally come to it: Time to “Get out of Dodge.”  Well, except for one thing: You don’t know how, exactly. Because getting out, even if you have time (when time comes, so to speak) is not likely to work unless you have laid in plans well ahead of time.

As part of my latest serialized book for Peoplenomics subscribers, Building Your Personal Ark, we take off this morning on the “getting out part”.  We look at cars, RV’s and even the “going Mountain Man option.

First though, we have to take a swipe at how the world is really working while we wait for the smelly stuff and the fan to collide.

After which, I will go back to wondering who put lines of HTML source a report that says  simply <musk>. Yeah, things are getting ever stranger as we roll…

By the way, Great Comments from G.A. Stewart in the UrbanSurvival comments overnight.  Go read his latest here.

Two cups worth, today. Maybe even three.  Not counting charts we’re over that 7,000 word range again..

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The next couple of weeks will likely be critical for the markets as well as the Future in general. The reasons are numerous and that’s our high level view of life on earth as we focus on the overarching issue.  Which is?  “When’s the right time to Take the Money and Run?”

Which ties into the next chapter of “Building a Personal Ark” which I cranked out another 33-pages on Friday, so plan on a longish report next Wednesday.

How about we begin with this?

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Technology and sociology are the weather forecasts of our Future. To have a great Future, check the forecasts!

Which is to say, if you’re planning a robust future, our chapter of Building a Person Ark today will be useful. It’s all about getting the Future right.  Do that and everything else is almost cake. Not in the next day or two maybe, but the bigger currents in society that work in slow-motion year long timescales will be on your side.

 We therefore consider the perspective of society-level changes. Which happens gradually, not usually overnight.  How are technology changes adopted and dispersed for example.  Work of four luminaries will be covered, as the rate of social progression is explored.

We can do this because the market is weak and on hold for the JOLTS report at 10 AM and the Fed Minutes at 2 PM today, we will consider the pickle traders have gotten themselves into, in our ChartPack.  Look up the word ursine.

Plus, as an extra bonus, the dream world logic behind our speculation that during World War II important experiments in psychology (and transcendence) may have gone missing from the historical record.  Yes, a woo-woo question brought over from the dream Realms.

At more than 8,000 words, today will be something of a deeper than usual dive.  Which happens when holidays allow too much computer time… Who needs 10,000 monkeys and the works of Shakespeare when there’s one George and the Internet, eh?

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“Yes Natasha, Fearless Leader has been struck by a flare-up of Acronym Disease!“

Except that it happens to mean something useful: Offset Moving Averages. And it goes hand-in-glove with what we were talking about earlier this week on the (free) UrbanSurvival site.  About STM (Short-term Memory) and how the differences between STM and LTM may offer hints as to the evolving (and ever-changing) future of stock prices.

Which, in Ure’s real-life living of the movie Pi/. Wherein: “Unemployed number theorist Max Cohen, who lives in a drab apartment in Chinatown, Manhattan, believes everything in nature can be understood through numbers…” Thus explaining what drove Ure out of bed at 3 AM on what was ostensibly to be a “holiday weekend.”  All to audit spreadsheets and propose novel conclusions.

Some of which have to do with the nonlinear nature of the immediate future.   Perturbations in linearity of expectations at the pre-conscious level – even beyond that cloud of dread when nukes are at hand and wars are raging in headlines.

Which Future will, in finance, will arrive next Tuesday when the market hangovers are done for another little while. Like til next Friday.

You with me, bubba?

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We hold the major Purpose of Life is the successive achievement of “perfect days.”  With 2023 wrapping up, we depart from the usual economic fare to contemplate what makes for a “Perfect Day” and engage in the task of stringing a lot of them together in 2024.

It hasn’t escaped our notion that as our interest in more Perfect Days has increased, so have the obstacles to their achievement.  Aging and pending collapse of the world into war and social entropy have done a dandy job in 2023 out-distancing aging.

Naturally, holiday week or not, we also serve up the usual.  Our snarly view of depressing news and the confounding market charts.  Which, while not back up to the (so far) all-time highs of 2021 on an Aggregate basis, seem to be making a hell of a run at it.

We shall see….

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Of course, with this being a holiday weekend, we will still have our ChartPack.  Where you’ll see why I went short near the close Friday.

But there are a number of other items to cover, which we’ve lumped into “Useful Senior Tips” and I hope you find the discussion points useful.

Plus, it may be a good weekend to catch up on our Building a Personal Ark book, which is already somewhere north of 23-thousand words…

Warm up the coffee and let’s go, then…

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In our new book, The Personal Ark, we tackle what kind of personal data resources you may need if (or when) we experience GHD (grid, hard down). There are lots of considerations. some of which are non-apparent.

This assumes, of course, that you’re a second-level prepper.  A first-level person focuses on basic food, water, and shelter issues for some period of time.  But the second-level prepper then goes on to figure a transition to a permanent state of being without commercial resources.

The dividing line is whether you have seeds, gardening tools and viable plans and knowledge.  If you do, you’re a second level prepper.

As you can tell, there’s a huge gap between eating what’s on hand and growing, hunting, fishing, and trapping to get the rest.

So, toward this end, a discussion of how to structure information support for that kind of world.

First though, looks like the Colorado Don Ban will go to the US-SupCo and will California try it, too?

Plus, there’s that rousing rally which we’re watching from the sidelines.  Stick around, going to be an interesting Holiday ahead.

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Where we size up how the year has been and look ahead to next year’s challenges.  We like to have these lookaheads because they go hand-in-glove with other annual exercises, such as the personal financial statement discussion.

We have been – for literally decades – fans of the concept preached in management schools “What gets measured gets done.”

This is a “tough-on-self” way to personal accountability.  But the alternative is a slacker’s life with no (or minimal) change toward the better.

Thus, we begin with a world review (our Seven Systems of Life) and use this as the playing field to plot out where the Future might be directed. With surprisingly little effort, too.

One thing people don’t seem to live to is the notion that if you are living in “harmony with Universe” Life’s a very easy “row to hoe.”  If you attempt to swim counter to Shakespeare’s “Tide in the Affairs of Men” you likely won’t get very far and you can be thrown for losses.

Not a long column this morning – mainly the charts and a few headlines to underscore our outlooks. But, then again, we had that super-long Tuesday report on Personal Ark Building (Part 3) which many subscribers haven’t been able to work into their schedules, yet.

Pour, relax, read.

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“Some men see things as they are and say why? I dream things that never were and say why not.” Famous quote from the late Robert F. Kennedy. Very much on point as we answer the question “What is a rational person to do for a survival strategy in a world gone mad?”

The answer has, for more than 20-years for Elaine and me, to attempt building our own “Personal Ark.”  We don’t expect the Biblical rains, but the risk of other raining down on the world?  A review of headlines says that is a non-zero risk.  The Middle East is locked in battle over future energy and in Ukraine, the West/NATO is making “remote viewer” predictions of a NATO breakup in early 2024 sound not so far-fetched.

We’re not just serving a long chapter today – looking at home-based business ideas.  We also have this little matter of a Fed  rate decision after lunch plus the usual “world in breakup mode” to follow as well.

Pour a second cup and put notifications on hold.  There’s a lot to cover and like Booker T and the M.G.s used to play, Time is Tight.

(OK, maybe a 9,600-word reportis  a little over-the-top.  But this is part of a book, you know, Besides, if you don’t have time to read it all today, there’s the holidays just ahead…)

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Today we consider investment lessons from the field of software design.  And, in particular a parallel between stock market decision matrices and software decision-making related to voice response devices such as Alexa and Siri.

I know, sounds a little bit “out there” but (trust me, it is) it’s actually how modern engineering works.

Clever generalization of solutions. You take a simple problem in one field and then translate it to a solution in another through (an application of TRIZ) and come up via our Substitution method of innovation, with a new way of considering a problem.

Which circles us back to financial engineering.  And the “What the hell was that all about Friday with Job lies out the ying-yang?”

After a few headlines, of course. Since we need to keep our wits about us despite rancor in the wings.

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Money is what “floats your boat” in today’s second installment of our Ark building book. Because while “prepping” may be popular, what’s really satisfying is the larger context in life: Building a Personal Ark to sail into the unknowable future.

We aren’t building a Noah-like flood building, though.  Rather we are looking at owning a platform and siting it where a voyage into Future might be possible.

The sequence we’re into now involves some lessons designed to help open your Opportunity Eyes, Ark’s cost money.

In doing so, we’ll lay the financial foundation of your independence Ark (survival platform). Something that can survive (hopefully!) the worst the world can throw at it.

Next week, following this groove, we’ll be exploring 50+ years of personal Renaissance and street faire recon to give you concrete examples of how “seeing” with Opportunity Eyes works for people on this personal platform path.

Two major points to cover first, however, before we get go Future Building, though.  The ADP Job Report is just out.  And there’s a decision coming from Markets as Charts are looking ready to bolt – one way, or the other.

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