Yes.  A Simple Way to get a better bead on the future.  In some ways, it’s similar to the Delphi technique.  Which is typically used to address singular questions.

In the case of temporal nomography, the objective is much wider.  Like getting a “sense of where America is” in a broad sense in order to better-anticipate market moves.

Which we will sketch out after a few headlines and the day’s ChartPack.  (If you can forgive all my bowing for betting this move dead-to-nuts on…We really don’t do short-term tactical trading most of the time.

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Some hardcore economic reality leaked this week from one of the regional Fed chiefs.  But it’s not making headlines.  Maybe because it’s not a furtherance of monetizing Americans.  A refreshingly candid view of things ahead.

Moral hazard abounds in America these days.  Particularly in economics.

Would you walk into a crooked Casino if they had a sign outside that said: “We cheat so You can win!“?  That’s the position investors are increasingly finding themselves in.

And the decision-making comes down to runaway nonlinear situations in healthcare, finance, pensions, monetary systems, and spills out onto the streets as the “shamed and blame” of Cancel Culture and other such pap.

What’s an investor to do?

Some thoughts on this after a few headlines in our ChartPack.

Do market cycles foretell events to come next week, or is the market merely reactive.  Causative?  Not?

My head hurts already…

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Yes, the anti-fragile crowd could be wrong. Complexity might actually speed up – not retard – financial collapse.

 It is entirely possible that while Nasim Taleb followers have been spouting off about how complexity will “save us” the exact opposite is likely true for reasons we will explore today.

This is not to diss Taleb’s book on fragility (Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder (Incerto Book 3)  because it makes some interesting points.

Our counter to them is even more interesting because rather than approach from the blinders worn by mathematicians in general and risk managers in particular.  Left field events consume us as we adhere to a more generalist philosophy which doesn’t reduce to simply numerical estimation.

Humans in the loop matter greatly.  So does the gut.

Numbers like those potentially arising from an MCHVE – a massively correlated hyper-volatility event.  Like the one possibly just ahead.  That markets are already dancing around.

More on this after a few headlines and the (Scary!) ChartPack which will lead into this afternoon’s Fed rate decision and soft-shoe routine.

The world is in high-level musical chairs.  And the music is skipping beats – like it did Monday.  For today?  And early denial rally!

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With our Aggregate index long-term top holding (for now) we can project how bad things are likely to become over the rest of the year. Into next, as well. Despite other flaws, the advice about “buying Christmas presents early” from VP Harris does begin to make sense when we go off dot-connecting.

Instead of a review of headlines and the ChartPack this morning, we’re  putting it all into one general theme from which the logical questions (and branching of inquiry) will be clear and logical.

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Although I’m not a financial advisor, we do serve up an interesting mix of ideas for dealing with Social Security benefit reductions should they come along.  Say, there’s a pretty safe bet, huh?

 Naturally, the fear porn industry is already offering projections.  But they are wildly premature.

On the other hand, some of the basic lifestyle choices that we’ve made over the last 20-years have really started to pay off big in terms of low cost of living and minimal operating costs.

So today we have that kind of Ben Franklin (ledger) discussion and kick around a lot of ways you can improve your cash position and lighten up on future expenses while the world hangs together.

After the ChartPack and some of the juicier headlines, of course.

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Much somber discussion and recall this weekend. But around here, something more.  The realization that despite billions, if not trillions spent on the National Security State, America is just loaded with weak underbellies waiting for someone to attack.

Perhaps related to the calendar, we’ll cover our new “Exceptional Fear Indicator” based on market action in the Aggregate Index.

A series of remarks from my Consigliere who has been thinking long and hard about this.  As you’ll see, the opportunity for terrorism can never be truly eliminated.  For where there’s evil, there’s a way.

Not much more chipper, today’s ChartPack updates out likely Crash date pick for this fall.  We need to have that “preserving “widow and orphan money” discussion again.  The kind we had in the late summer of 2008 when you could already feel the financial underpinnings beginning to shake.

More coffee?  A few headlines?  Then we’re look at and see what’s to be learned from looking back.

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Although 2034 seems a long ways off, not too early to be rethinking Social Security plans.  It’s due to run out of assets during our lifetime.  2034 is when the Trust Fund part runs out.  Assuming we get lucky for 13-more years!

Actually, we doubt it will be that long.  Because Covid 19 and the dollar’s falling status as the global reserve currency all comes into play.  So does a Fed describing property we labeled “temporal diodes” from years ago.

Because a lot of readers are just now “getting their groove on again” after the holiday, we’re keeping this morning’s report very concise.

Also a lot of interest in our ChartPack section this morning, as well.  Because the market sell-off yesterday sets up an interesting “technical situation” we’ll explore a bit.

So bean up, buckle up, and clean the specs…we’re off to learn Socialist Calculus with a side of financial reality.

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Bet you didn’t know there are over a million drones now registered in the U.S., did you?  Are there any prepping angles to them?  The answer, says your newly-minted Part-107 Remote Pilot is “Hell yeah!”  It’s a long weekend and care to guess who has play on his mind?

Of course, there’s the money-stuff, too:

With a new all-time high in our Aggregate Index comes a new target date for the fall collapse. Though we have to admit the continued rally would be more mysterious if it were not largely powered by the Fed making up money.  And most people having no alternative investment ideas.

Which is odd when you think about it (which we will a bit today):  With Covid and variants being made lickety-split (*say “Mooo!“) very few people are considering the compound outcome of population reduction PLUS excessive money creation.

Think back to the previous century in terms of a Flu-mar Republic  hyper-inflation!

A few headlines and then off the high board into data…

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I don’t like to be overly focused on “automatic money.” But it’s important to look at our returns on personal investments of time… Especially when some people spend hours every day looking at stock prices.  Is there a good ROI in that?

Automatic Money is a simple concept and it can usefully guide your “side hustle” efforts.

We also begin this morning – with the long weekend ahead – with a novel way of looking at (gulp!) climate change that occurred to me as I was pawing through Texas data.

Toss in this morning’s ADP jobs report number to kick things off, and our Aggregate markets view of stocks and an interesting morning, indeed.

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Bond market isn’t growing as fast as the stock market. In relative terms, it’s shrinking. Which, we think offers a novel opportunity to offload the Federal Debt onto individual shareholders.

The process takes a wee bit of explaining, but our point is that while the Federal Debt screams toward the $30-trillion level, there is a way to “IPO it away.”

The time to offload would be when, ideally?  How about in the midst of a massive stock bubble…like right now?

Which we will table after we first roll a few headlines and review our unorthodox view of the stock market this week.

Which was even more irrational than usual – Losing Afghanistan, but let’s run up stocks.  Why, it’s almost a harbinger of Buy the Rumor – and God forbid what the Sell the News events in the wings might be…

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Nature abhors a vacuum – and the Biden mess in Afghanistan is creating a huge one.  With the Chinese having said – almost forever – that reunification with Taiwan will happen – the pending debacle still in the early stages of unfolding in the Middle East may offer China an unprecedented window of opportunity.

Will they take their time and await next year?  Or, will this fall (and we’ll give you a date to circle) be simply too much for them to pass up?

A chance for a two-fer?  Get  for China and hobble the U.S. for years to come?  We shall see what we shall Xi, we figure.

Meantime, the market seems to prepare for a fall rollover as new data still holds the line, but looking at new Fed numbers, trouble lurks.

A few headlines to warm up the brain cells and then into the thick of it.

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Between events in the shop this week, and Biden pulling troops before others, we see a vision of the future that looks horrific.  This will come out on Urban in pieces, but this morning for subscribers a high level overview of what’s likely to come from America’s simmering calamities.

Along with the ChartPack which is turning into a nail biter on its own.

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My book Packing to Die: Suitcase Between Your Ears is now available on Amazon for Kindle.  Feel free to buy several thousand copies.

In a few days, the paperback version should be ready, as well.  Amazon’s had a “hitch in their print-along” this week. Not my error! I hear a number of other authors have material cued up, waiting for the glitch fixers to complete repairs…

The focus on getting this book printed got me to looking back at another Peoplenomics book I wrote some time back but never put out for the gen pop.  You can find the pertinent chapters of The-100-Year Toaster on the Master Index pages.

However, this morning, I decided to rewrite the first chapter of that because of more recent observations about the nature of not only product but also corporate obsolescence.   (Do I know how to party, or what?)

So after we clean up from the overnights and from the train wrecks, and a view of how bad this fall could really get in the ChartPack, we’ll focus on getting ahead by looking behind.  While there’s still time.

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