Trying to “crack the safe” in the investment world, are you?  Years ago, an outfit that made saw-sharpening and locksmithing gear, Foley-Belsaw – had a dandy locksmithing course. Turned out, it was a lot more feel and less touch than cartoons had made it seem to a young feller.

Point is, in really unlocking investments, there is a lot more time than brains involved, at some long-term market inflection points.

Odds seem pretty good we’re in such a period right now.  Which we will dig into with the ChartPack this morning as we diagnose the harsh Jerome Powell remarks – and resulting nosebleed (which becomes an epistaxis after med school) on Wall Street Friday.

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Odds appear to be increasing that we are entering the larger Wave 3 down in markets.  Not that we won’t rally first; of course we will.

But consider where our Aggregate Index work was on November 8, 2021:  41,953.86 .  Based on the close Tuesday, it had rallied from a low of 30,870.04 June 16th of this year.  In financial market wave theory, this was a drop of  26 percent.

The good news is that since the mid-June low, we had rallied (to last Wednesday) 18.87% which was a fine run.

Today – for entertainment purposes only – we continue looking for clues as to what is likely next.  If you’re thinking “Well, a wave 1 down, a wave 2 up, means we wave 3 down is pending?”  Give yourself a gold star.

Even if we make another rally  into early September (9th) the word “pending” quickly evaporates.

But more as we take a deep dive into financial history to figure out what presentry may have in store for us.

After Durable Goods and a check of the sideshows, of course.

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Every time a Bubble arises, supporters of the “new paradigm” argue that somehow “This time it’s different.“    The data says it hasn’t been different yet.

One of these days that may be true.  However, we have come up with a method by which similarities may become clear between non-equivalent markets with wide temporal separation.

Which may sound like gibberish until events this fall roll out that are seemingly now cast in stone.

After a few headlines and a second cup of tea, natch!

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Short for “Operations Tempo” it’s the kind of thing military commanders coordinate.  One flank moves at a certain speed while another moves at something else.  Between, an enemy is “herded” into a disadvantageous position.

In markets, there is an OPTEMPO, as well. Sometimes sector moves are fast, or at other times, painfully slow.

This morning in addition to retail sales numbers just out, and another 35-more pages of my Collapse-Capable Electronics Operator book, we will look at recent structural moves that may drive back fall events.  But make thing worse long-term since it will all seemingly “hit the fan” about the same time.

Details and the ChartPack are both scary and interesting.

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Two stories headline our Saturday morning thinking:  Our previously “unthinkably bad Elliott Count has been validated.  And some comments from a retired senior Air Force contributor shine an embarrassing Light of Truth on crooked political assassination efforts.

Either one is bad.  Combined, they can be taken as a sure sign of more troubles and stress are just ahead.

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Let’s start with Collapse-Capable Electronics Operator training and why it’s a different cut of cloth than a ham radio operator.  Nothing against hams – finest people in the world. And I’m an Extra Class (AC7X) who’s been “Banging brass” for 60-some years, now.

Everyone can benefit from a ham license – no Morse code required – that went away years ago.

But collapse?  ARES and other ham radio groups do phenomenal work when disasters strike.  But our focus this morning isn’t about those month-long drives of heroic public service.

It goes to how we reconstitute a low baud rate world when the Internet is taken down or attacked.  When EMP happens and all those ugly possibilities.

That, I’m thinking, is a different kettle of fish.  So this morning the  outline and  a few chapters of yet-another Peoplenomics prepping guide.

After the charts and that just breaking (good news) inflation report.

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There is a chance now, that within a year, stock prices will have fallen to half of present levels – and maybe lower.  The pieces are just now sliding into place.  But, when you consider some of the data – and the flow of world events – it has become an undeniable possibility.

This isn’t to suggest you run out and dump stocks. For me, though, it was one of those realizations that matters.  A kind of “eyes wide shut” as we look at growing odds of TEOTWAWKI within a couple of years – or less.

A starting point is a note from a well-informed source.  Another reason for hair to stand on end.

Along with the ChartPack – which is where the really bad news of the week has sprung from.

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“Oh my God- Another Book” begins the morning with the first chapters of yet-another book I’m thinking about writing.  Well, maybe more than thinking about.

This one is all about the coming Digital Dark Age.   The one that follows deteriorating relations with China, Iran, Russia and whoever else holds a grudge.  As they all gang up on the U.S. and take down our backbone of modern Life the digital world.  Imagine what is implied.

Food?  Nope.  Water?  None – Ma Nature’s got that one on the string.  Money?  Naw…we’re already making up more than we can excuse.

The web? Toast.  Ever get serious about penciling out just how truly awful it could be?

I don’t think people realize.  This is a believe it, or not, book.  One remembering a time before microwaves, before color TVs, before rigged elections, open borders, and communist leaning teachers who seem to program our kids to talk out of the left side of their mouths, too. Technical in some ways, like how hacking works out.

Which we will get to, after we check the Nancy Puddle (Pacific) for any big splashes and crashes.  Oh, and a stop in the Chart Office, too.

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We are coming into a period when the term “high risk” could mean more than any other in our lifetimes.  We are literally living in a “powder keg” world which could “go Archduke Ferdinand” at any second.

Plus with our ChartPack – and a market that has soared (as of mid-session Friday) more than nine percent in a single month.

These are unprecedented times.  And to our way of thinking, time to prepare for any of what may be coming is quickly running out.

Although – for now – it has not deterred our study of global geopolitics or our ChartPack.

The real question this weekend is “Could the Charts be right?  Or are we in a pre-War Bear Market Rally such has never been seen before?

Yes, it’s a “war jitters special” for breakfast.

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The paradox of growth versus environmental balance (finally) wraps up today.  We out the final chapter of our next Peoplenomics ebook.  These are included with your Peoplenomics.com subscription.  However, some of the ebooks such as Power in the Second Depression are available on Amazon ($5.99).

This final chapter has taken more than a year to sort out.  Because the “way forward” for nearly 8-billion competitive people (all of whom like to eat three-squares a day) is a nearly insolvable problem.  What we come to is the policies problem.  Because corporations and governments have merged along a jagged frontier of competing and cooperative interests.

Of course, no Peoplenomics report is complete without our twice-weekly ChartPack.  And with the market futures early on the upside, we’re sensing the Fed announcement of a rate hike this afternoon could turn into a classic “Buy the Rumor – Sell the News” kind of event.

After a few other news items which are weighing not only on markets but the rational people who keep the world spinning forward.

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Yes.  It’s true.  I play both long (going up) positions and short (going down) plays. Remarkably, I make money either way things run.

It’s kinda like being a banker:  If things go well, they make money on interest.  If things go badly, they repossess assets and sell them off – oftentimes billing for any shortfalls, so they always make money.

The way we play the markets around here is similarly “direction independent.”  Which is why our news analysis is often spot-on:  We don’t have any interest in making a “logical case” one way, or the other.

Life is what it is.

Besides a relaxing summer weekend of considering this “heads you lose, tails I win” kind of approach, we’ll sort through the usual few headlines.  But the ChartPack, will be an eye-opener for many.  We play volatility and not direction.  Partisanship has been on the skids for a long time.

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How would you like a brand-new home at less than half price? Not only is this possible, but there are people who do this all the time.  So this morning, we push around some numbers and show you how you can build your own and make a sweet pile of equity in the process.

There is, however, one underlying educational requirement:  You will need some basic woodworking skills.  You can pick these up by volunteering to help others who are building property, there are night classes, and even books like David Snell’s book “Building Your Own Home (18th edition)”  which makes the point that about a third of all new single-family detached homes are “self-built.”

In today’s world this means a $350,000 home can be self-built for about half that amount – and how would YOU like to step into a new home with $175,000 of equity and a house payment half as large (and about half as long) as others in your ‘hood?

First, though, some fresh data to sniff and then a tackle of the ChartPack as we try to wrap around the insane rally Tuesday.

Caffeine and calculator ready?

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Wherein we replace the programmatic news decided by the Powers and minion Editors.  And instead, we use a “What keywords really matter in my Life?” approach.

We’ll give you the idea and you can dial it in to whatever your circumstances are.

It’s a reaction to wife Elaine’s sometimes habitual listening to the “all news” station out of San Antonio – a practice which loads her mind and weighs her down, oftentimes.

Cast off the control of media is then followed by our discussion of Christmas in July with the commercial’s big payday as the shorts were run to the ground at the options close Friday by a short-squeeze rally.

Pour and then pore to avoid poor.

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