Over what we hope will be a quiet long weekend, it’s useful to ponder and “big picture” America’s Prospects. Truly a mixed bag this year.
Which we will muse on, right after a few headlines and the ChartPack which is definitely in a “caution zone.”
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Latest installment of my book this morning deals with a process called Destructuring. Up to page 71 today. Where it fits in the process of “filling the suitcase between your ears” is worth a few minutes of your time.
First though, a ton of data to wade through including (besides headlines) the new ADP Jobs report. Then we roll through our ChartPack.
Asking the question: Is the top in or really, really close?
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The heat is on in the West this weekend and into next week. So a few words about the people who are (and will be) heroes of the heat to begin with this morning.
Then a few headlines and our ChartPack.
This weekend is ham radio’s Field Day so I will be spending 2 PM to 4 PM Central time sniping CW (Morse code) contacts from 14.010 up to 14.060 MHz. Callsign AC7X. Operating from solar at home.
Even if you’re not a ham, if you’re “out and about” and see a bunch of people with wires thrown up in trees and such, drop by for a look at the communications providers who are literally America’s last stand on communications should the web ever go dark…
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Connecting to Energy. Amped without trying is on the table this morning. Life as a Film School, too.
Along with F-Stops and Tapestries unfolding through Life. As our preview of my book “Packing to Die: Suitcase Between your Ears” continues.
Of course, before we begin, we’ll size up the week’s bounce (which looks to be pausing in the pre-open) and see if the ChartPack can give us some solace along the way.
A few headlines for a warm-up, too. Since the noise floor can be distracting at times.
As with most summer weeks, with lots of people on their first real “vacation times” for a couple of years (lockdowns and all) we can’t get too jacked up over markets, or much of anything else.
After all, this is BBQ weather…at least some places. Which leads into our first series of headlines:
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Besides a stock market with a “case of the wobblies” much else in moving now. Although only notes, it will give you ideas on how – in a sense – the world might be seen as “almost ready to wrap up…”
Before this, some headlines, too. All of which makes for a brainful of speculation. Not only on “What future might bring.” More usefully, the question might be evolving into “How long a future do we have?”
And the ChartPack, of course.
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The Suitcase Between Your Ears. This is not a “warm and fuzzy” book. BUT it will force you to come to terms. Not only with Death – we all go there, eventually. We’ll focus on the opportunities that surround us in Life.
As the “method” school of acting wonders, then “What’s my motivation?” Dandy question and we will take a stab at it.
In the book, I hope you’ll discover for yourself something that changed my Life forever. I came to terms with Death.
Sure, I’m going to die; bummer. That being the case, though, how about we look at it strategically. The book more than just a business geek’s way of looking at the “D-word.” Although Death is a huge industry with many moving parts from collection plates to level 3 chest protectors.
At a high level, these business models inform us. OMG, there are so many hands out and so many charlatans, it will make your head spin.
While we have been “through the wringer” with complex website issues for the past five days, it’s also reminded me to share something I’ve been working on for several months in background: A practical book on dying and some useful ways to plan for The End.
Which we will dig into after a few morsels of Headline action ahead of this afternoon’s Fed meeting. And our ChartPack which tells as much about the world as it does short-term trading, at times.
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Data Days don’t come much larger than this. I mean holy smokes. Gives the Fed enough cover to hide behind any rate decision tomorrow.
Let’s roll through them one at a time:
[Also will be posted on Peoplenomics in case your DNS hasn’t caught up, yet…]
First the visual:
Then the gory details:
Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $620.2 billion, a decrease of 1.3% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 28.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2020.
Total sales for the March 2021 through May 2021 period were up 36.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2021 to April 2021 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).
Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (± 0.5 percent) from April 2021, but up 24.4 percent (± 0.7 percent) above last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 200.3 percent (±2.8 percent) from May 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 70.6 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year.
This one is all about prices in the pipeline. Higher ahead:
The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 6.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.
Nearly 60 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.5- percent rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent.
Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.7 percent in May, the same as in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 5.3 percent, the largest increase since 12-month data were first
calculated in August 2014.
A few minutes after these, Dow futures were only up 25 points, or so. To us, it looks like the market isn’t pricing the downsides to this, but there’s one more number to come:
This is one of our favorites because it edges over toward being an actual units-based measurement, not a dollarized mess: This page will be updated as soon as the report is released at 9:15
Eastern. (I will be face-down in cornflakes by then…)
Be ready on your clicker tomorrow. Fed decision is due out at 2 PM. Statement will be posted on the Fed’s website here.
I have bringing the charts back on the docket for tomorrow. But, in the meantime (and we’ll see how that works out…) here are some data points as of 7:15 Eastern that you will enjoy:
That loud-mouth sonofaMitch: McConnell sparks new Supreme Court fight | TheHill. You know, he’s going to open his mouth long enough and loud enough that the radical left WILL expand the Supreme Court and if that happens, sayonara ‘Merica.
Who are you, anyway? Identity Authentication Access Market set to hit $28.5bn in 2021. At the grocery store or in tech? Chips Ahoy!
The Revenuer’s II: Despite the hype that “legalized weed” could be a cash cow for state governments, care to guess at actuals? Billions in black-market weed still selling in Illinois 18 months after marijuana legalized – Chicago Sun-Times is a good start.
(Yes, we know there’s a big chemical fire in Illinois this morning, but that’s what fire departments – and some national guard – are for.)
The Vaxports are coming! Why, the hype is everywhere: The ‘New Normal’ for Employees; Going to Work Will Feel Like Going Through Airport Security Screening in This Post-Pandemic World. We wouldn’t be surprised to see this slammed through congress despite many states (including here in Texas “just saying no.” We know this because it’s a talking point where? What Are The Roadblocks to a Covid Vaccine Passport? – The New York Times.
Speaking of our fave bioweapon: Stunning video reveals Daszak and WHO lied when claiming no bats in the Wuhan Lab says the American Thinker. Surprising? Hardly….
Calling all vegan rats! Plant-based diet protects from hypertension, preeclampsia — ScienceDaily.
And as Political Correctness Disease drives the remnants of America onto the rocks: the Cleveland Indians name change ‘more complex’ than previously thought, team official says Fox News. Don’t tell anyone, we watched the 2013 version of The Lone Ranger for a few minutes last night.
We still have no idea why our site went down in the first place – taking 18-years of articles with it. But, the good side of this is it has given me a chance to find out again “what I’m made of…”
You see, when you get to be of a certain age, your taste for work begins to decline. Most things in Life become rote as you age because you done it all before.
Rebuilding would not have been possible without the support of my wife, Elaine, who is just tomorrow 4-weeks from a total hip replacement. Her recovery was been nothing short of breath-taking. Bouncing around and over-doing things just-enough to force her body to spring back in shape.
Me? Four hours of sleep in 48 is probably not the best thing in the world. But I’ve lost, count ’em, 4-pounds from this. Partly due to high coffee intake, partly from not eating for 14-hour stretches, but mostly from running back and forth from the office (in the shop & guest room building) over to the house.
Reason for that was Elaine’s computer was the only one that was keeping the refreshed DNS numbers. The one’s in the office have been cranky until this morning. Don’t even get me started on that…
The new hosting outfit is standing by to see if the old hosting provider – where the owner tragically died last month – can get us back-up files we need to continue the restoration work.
As long as I’m putting the time in, now is when you can have significant input into how UrbanSurvival looks into the future.
Already, there are some changes that should be apparent. Let me run through some of them for you:
I’m committed to keeping UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics going until “check-out time.” Because you, dear reader, make it all worth doing. While my health (and memory) are still really good, I’m trying to make the most of things.
One way you can help? When you see an article that’s good (there’s bound to be one eventually, lol), please send an email with a link to our sites and introduce people to old-fashioned commonsense American values.
A special treat on Peoplenomics tomorrow: The first part of my next book: “Packing to Die: The Suitcase Between Your Ears.” It will be on Amazon by-and-by. But Peoplenomics readers deserve my best. And since I keep a huge archive of everything over there, there’s often something worth reading and thinking about.
I’ve thought about a “Best of Ure” book – because I have thought so long, hard, and deep about many things. Mostly in the economics and market sphere. But a good bit in the adventure zones, too.
All of the change around here “lit up” the day after I spent time with the first of the space-time hacking experiments which have been written up on Peoplenomics.
For those not familiar, that a look at my books on Amazon and you’ll see one titled Dimensions Next Door. That book documents and engineering approach to the rediscovery of what modern’s would call “magic”.
Thus, all three of my books deal with the Larger Life few people speak about. Because, frankly, most don’t spend the critical needed to think things through.
But what I’ve personally come to is that people exist on three levels (hence my three “serious non-financial) books:
I don’t know if I’d ever laid out this “big picture of what’s in Ure’s wallet.” But now that you have it, take what’s useful and fits in your drama/film of life.
Remember that today when you’re finished with this read, you’ll be “rolling film” on another episode that will be played when your Life flashes before your eyes on the way out to whatever’s Next.
So, as always, Write when you get rich – and don’t be shy about tossing comments in the pot. A lot of the people around here are older and smarter than me and may offer some great advice. This being an inter-generational, non-gender-specific, non-supremacists of any color, sharing festival. Such as it is…
Send everyone in your email contacts a note and tell ’em Urban is back!
Write when you…yada, yada…
George@Ure.net
CLEAR YOUR BROWSER CACHE. This will speed up the recovery of UrbanSurvival on your computer.
I’ll save the discussion of the website issues (oddly: 10 hours after my space-time bending effort, and as Hank noted, also its Retrograde time, anyway. And I tend to run three weeks ahead of retrograde, but more on the back end. Markets are still opening, so with too much coffee and being up most of the night, let’s roll into it.
This is Slow Joe’s first overseas trip. Then the Fed FOMC gavels in tomorrow. “What are we to make of it?” wonder the markets.
Apparently not much. With 2-1/2 hours to the open, the Dow is up only 10 points…which seems constructive. Until you put that in context of a 200 day annual trading ball park. That would be a 2,000 point rally in a year. Not squat for a return on printing $120-billion (plus) per month.
The two 900-pound gorillas in the background? China (China denounces G7 statement, urges group to stop slandering country | Reuters). And then there’s the changeover in Israel: (Israel’s new government gets to work after Netanyahu ouster (apnews.com).
If you want to hunt for something smaller than gorillas? Well, bigger than a possum (for sure) is what’s going on with Bitcoin: $39,396 earlier.
Our pals in the lumber industry are seeing a continuing slide down to $1,059 early. Which doesn’t sound like much, until you consider the all-time high a short while back was up in the $1,700 plus range. I figure the $1-thousand handle shortly.
That kick-ass drop in the lumber prices will be in the market eventually. But the horror stories from neighbors who’s been to the Big Box stores will singe your hair. Amazing.
Bloomberg had a good post over the weekend “Lumber Prices Post Biggest–Ever Weekly Drop With Buyers Balking.” The point LOOB made in the comments last week (about how much per hour a couple had to make just to buy the over-priced roof) was exactly on point. While housing may go up at an astronomical rate due to money-printing madness, there comes a point where people simply walk away.
Oh – when they do? Society Collapses. Joseph Tainter’s classic “Collapse of Complex Societies” will teach oodles to would be liberal economists who think Modern Monetary Theory is unlimited. The Anasazi and other cultures demonstrate mass walk-outs are real. Who saw those coming?
All leads up to the hyperinflation “Transitory Scam” written up over on ZeroHedge today.
If you’ve got to have a server collapse, might as well be in the summertime.
You know our assessment of the Doldrums Arriving is spot-on when the International Biz Times rolls out 15 Best Shows To Binge-Watch On Netflix.
It’s so quiet out here in the woods, you could hear a price drop.
BS Walks. Or, more properly jets home. G7 summit: Leaders pledge climate action but disappoint activists. Probably because some are figuring that climate is a hard sell (sort of like vaccine hype is diminishing). And because people are not (*yet) dumb enough to agree to a Global Tax.
Wind Up Joe: stick a quarter in him or leave a mic open and oh, gee… “President Biden Says U.S. Credibility Restored on World Stage After G-7.” Think he’s gonna call out his buddies? Hah! Good one!
Who’s for lunch, dahling? Queen to meet Joe Biden at Windsor Castle. Bet me who gets stuck for the tab.
Crooked Nancy, speaking of BS, is defending the Marxists in her House. Pelosi calls Omar ‘valued member’ of Democratic caucus, looks to move past controversial remarks. Amazing how people fall for stuff.
Clinton Murder chain, continuing? Bound to cross the minds of people who understand clear-thinking and can do basic probability math. This as the reporter who broke the Bill Clinton- Loretta Lynch planes meeting in Phoenix story is dead. Think I’m skeptical of the reported “suicide?” (*Who, me?)
Things are Bigger in Texas: In the weekend race to pop the most rounds as One suspect arrested and another remains at large after Texas mass shooting that injured 14 people. Ohio’s gunplay didn’t even come close “Cincinnati shooting injures 4 people — including 2 children.”
Everything was fine and dandy on Sunday morning. Good ShopTalk Sunday column and an hour of heavy yard work before the yellow blaster in the sky warmed up.
Then came the emails: UrbanSurvival was down.
I will save the details for later, but if you got to Peoplenomics – good for you!
We’d put in site forwarding (designed to point all calls to the (still) broken site to a new one. Problem is we are not propagating very fast.
When it dawned on me (about 9 PM last night) that we’d be having to propagate web pointers around the world twice, the decision was made (Zeus the Cat consulting) to go ahead and get up at 2 AM and start the process of moving to a new hosting provider.
Sadly, my long-time friend, who ran the hosting operation where Urban lived before – 15-years of great service and friendly advice – died in mid May. I made the classic assumption that they would have a solid follow-up plan but, no actually, not. At least by the look of it from here.
Looks like a large part of the summer will be enjoyed right here in my office chair. Except for food and beverage runs and Elaine’s PT.
You may not have read my 2012 book “Broken Web” but the research for that lit my hair on fire. It’s why I have not one, but two websites. The thinking was that one would be a fail-over to the other.
The problem with failovers (simply pointing UrbanSurvival at the Peoplenomics site) all takes time. 24-48 hours. Rather than be “down” for two more days (for sure and for certain) I took the gamble at 2 AM and fired up a new hosting provider.
That has been stable enough (though it comes and goes) to let me at least get started on the recovery. My thanks to my buddy Gaye Levy over at https://strategiclivingblog.com for sorting through hosting providers and such.
The rollover to the new site could take a week – and maybe longer. Rest assured, though, that I’m doing my dead-level best to keep everything rolling (not to mention the daily prose and Peoplenomics report to come Wednesday, too).
It’s been a shock, but somehow not. The web is becoming a notorious digital rework of the wild days of the American West. Except instead of some 16-year old immigrant Irish kid with a six-shooter in Dodge City, the modern replay has a 16-year old code-slinger somewhere in Eastern Europe.
Interesting times we live in.
I will get the comments features turned back up as soon as possible because that “assembly of like-minded people” has been incredibly valuable.
Actual cause? Unknown. Do know the hard drive is full on the old server and I can’t recover some things I’d like. Because the drive keeps filling up again.
It’s on a “virtual private server” and I figure the network admin getting hacked (and taking down a lot of sites) may be going on. But we’ll see. Maybe an SSD failure? But the timing. Right after the space-time experiments Saturday.
Maybe I said something that pissed off someone really, really big?
The latest technical chit-chat with Marcell (kind of IT support guys) is:
“I’ve checked the DNS history using SecurityTrails’s DNS history tool and I’ve found the previous IP 45.33.29.40 where your domain was pointing to.
After setting my host’s file on my computer to point the domain to the old previous host 45.33.29.40, I could indeed replicate the same issue.
This simply confirms that the error on your end is still coming from the old provider. This is just DNS propagation as you have said earlier.
Please give it some hours while the DNS propagation is completed over the web and you should not experience any further issues.”
All takes time…sorry to say. But better to go through it once than twice.
Write when you get rich and I’ll answer as time permits.
George@Ure.net
I spent a non-stop 10 hours to get things this far back together.
When ShopTalk Sunday was posted, all was well. That was 6:40 AM yesterday.
By 4 PM, workaround path had been taken and my daily scribbles will be on the Peoplenomics site for a couple of days until we get the balance of the recovery of Urban done.
Thanks for your patience…going as hard as I can on solving this…
Usual Monday Morning column if possible…
George
As I mentioned earlier, the UrbanSurvival.com website is down. Looks like something on the server side because I can log into the content management system and there’s a “disk full” error when I try to go in through the CPanel doorway…
Which means I will be trying to sort this out as the day wears on, but in the meantime, we will still be keeping things alive with the Peoplenomics site. It’s why we have two discrete sites in the first place.
Not sure what will happen with our long-term hosting provider. Turns out, the owner (and the sparkplug) of the company passed away in May. As a result, things on the business end of that provider are in disarray.
We may be going through a bit of “web hell” because even though we have backups or things, anytime you’re moving servers and content around, it’s something of a crap shoot.
So, not a very happy day here. When the backup of the Peoplenomics site (I’m going two deep on that one!) we will post a note on the UrbanSurvival site if we can. However, since the reason its down is “out of disk space” no telling how long that will take to clear.
Sheesh, huh?
Well, back to noodling and spewing…
I’ll keep you posted.
George@Ure.net
The free side of this authors pages – UrbanSurvival.com – is experiencing tech issues and will be restored as soon as practical. Thanks for your patience!
This weekend, I’ll be doing some initial testing of (subscribers know what). But, in the meantime, the ChartPack is especially interesting ahead of next week’s Fed meeting.
A few headlines to warm up (like we need that with almost summer here in Texas!). Then we’re off to the lab.
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My 2017 book “Dimensions Next Door” now seems likely to be a very useful starting point for UFO and UAP research. A major government report is pending. That’s because in the book (DND) there was a very productive “survey of the data” approach taken. Something missing in most UFO/UAP “reports.”
The problem is a quirk in how humans perceive non-ordinary events. While some call it “normalcy bias” there’s a similar phenom in electronics called “bias.” That’s the tendency of a vacuum tube or solid state device to “stop conducting” when biased a certain way.
Thomas Gilovitch’s book, “How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Human Reason in Everyday Life” touches on this.
A thought experiment if I may?
Pretend you go outside and are run over by a truck. The normal “human bias” response is to look at the truck which nailed out. And then deepen your understanding on the “impact phenomenon.” Maybe it was a Kenworth, perhaps a Freightliner. Red? Sleep cab? Towing something?
There is another approach to science. Suppositional and investigatory. It zooms-out from the singular impact-moment and instead looks around. Have their been other impacts? Is there anything in common between them?
You can see where this leads:
One interpretation of “science” focuses on the truck, impact, medical results, and so forth.
The Scientific Generalist finds other examples of truck-human impacts. As the commonalities of all impact cases are reviewed, much broader truths beyond a singular probe of a Kenworth or Freightliner and one victim come into focus.
Impacts don’t happen at random. Discovery follows. Impacts cluster in a pattern. Looked at with “new eyes” we make out these things called (variously) roads, streets, turnpikes, and freeways.
Which leads to our discussion this morning of simple/obvious mechanisms of trans dimensional physics I believe have been overlooked. Can’t say if this will be an opening to Dimensions Next Door II, but there’s a clustering to the impact data coming clearly into view for the data focused Scientific Generalist.
After a few headlines (which are starting to read like my 2012 book, Broken Web) and, of course, the ChartPack.
The two most important words in this morning’s report, though? GID and hyper. You need to be prepared for both…
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