Data Dump: Retail, PPI, Industrial Production, More…

Data Days don’t come much larger than this.  I mean holy smokes. Gives the Fed enough cover to hide behind any rate decision tomorrow.

Let’s roll through them one at a time:

[Also will be posted on Peoplenomics in case your DNS hasn’t caught up, yet…]

Retail Sales

First the visual:

Then the gory details:

Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $620.2 billion, a decrease of 1.3% (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, but 28.1 percent (±0.7 percent) above May 2020.

Total sales for the March 2021 through May 2021 period were up 36.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The March 2021 to April 2021 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5 percent)* to up 0.9 percent (±0.2 percent).

Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (± 0.5 percent) from April 2021, but up 24.4 percent (± 0.7 percent) above last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 200.3 percent (±2.8 percent) from May 2020, while food services and drinking places were up 70.6 percent (±3.0 percent) from last year.

Producer Price Index

This one is all about prices in the pipeline.  Higher ahead:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.8 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Final demand prices rose 0.6 percent in April and 1.0 percent in March. (See table A.) On an unadjusted basis, the final demand index advanced 6.6 percent for the 12 months ended in May, the largest increase since 12-month data were first calculated in November 2010.

Nearly 60 percent of the May increase in the index for final demand can be traced to a 1.5- percent rise in prices for final demand goods. The index for final demand services moved up 0.6 percent.

Prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services increased 0.7 percent in May, the same as in April. For the 12 months ended in May, the index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services climbed 5.3 percent, the largest increase since 12-month data were first
calculated in August 2014.

A few minutes after these, Dow futures were only up 25 points, or so.  To us, it looks like the market isn’t pricing the downsides to this, but there’s one more number to come:

Fed Industrial Production

This is one of our favorites because it edges over toward being an actual units-based measurement, not a dollarized mess:  This page will be updated as soon as the report is released at 9:15
Eastern.  (I will be face-down in cornflakes by then…)

Fed Meeting Begins

Be ready on your clicker tomorrow.  Fed decision is due out at 2 PM.  Statement will be posted on the Fed’s website here.

Data We’re Eyeing (suspiciously!)

I have bringing the charts back on the docket for tomorrow.  But, in the meantime (and we’ll see how that works out…) here are some data points as of 7:15 Eastern that you will enjoy:

  • Bitcoin: $40,002.  We still don’t have a wallet and don’t want to check any boxes on the 1040.
  • Lumber:  $996. As I told you to expect/plan for, the $1,000 handle WAS BROKEN this morning.    Waiting to build the deck until fall makes sense.  Besides, working in a Nomex suit in the Texas sun is not this old man’s idea of joyriding.
  • Gold: $1,865.  This one worries us a bit.  Because it’s what I’d offer as a “non-conforming indicator.  IF inflation were really going to come screaming back, Gold ought to have blasted through $2,000 by now.
  • Silver: $27.74.  Again, not exactly screaming that rates will go higher, either.  Which gets us back to the old conundrum around here:  With the Fed “making up” $1.5 trillion a year to “float” the economy over the economic chasm, could the bridge they are cobbling up still break?
  • 10 Year Bond:  1.5%.  OK, seriously:  Fed’s going to talk inflation today but despite the bubbles that have gone around the system, the Fed creation of easy money hasn’t driven us over the edge of Zimbabwe or Weimar inflation.  YET.
  • Feeder Cattle:  $154.58 looks to us to be in a solid upward trend channel and holding.  Timing for buying that next half of locker beef could be interesting.  In part because…
  • Corn:  $656.75.  Stalks coming up and corn prices going down is what looks like a reversal of earlier fears about prices going through the roof.
  • Copper:  $4.36.  Two take-outs from copper for us:  First is it seems to be in a major decline phase which means worldwide, the chance of war is quickly passing.  It will be back next year, so hold Ure horses.  The other thing copper is reflecting is the slowing of home construction – which uses a bunch of copper, right?  It’s like if lumber goes high enough, there go home building jobs.  And copper going through the roof (if accompanied by gold and silver) would hint at general inflation while copper by itself might be a harbinger of war due to shell casing demand…

Meanwhile, in Other News

That loud-mouth sonofaMitch:  McConnell sparks new Supreme Court fight | TheHill.  You know, he’s going to open his mouth long enough and loud enough that the radical left WILL expand the Supreme Court and if that happens, sayonara ‘Merica.

Who are you, anyway? Identity Authentication Access Market set to hit $28.5bn in 2021.  At the grocery store or in tech?  Chips Ahoy!

The Revenuer’s II:  Despite the hype that “legalized weed” could be a cash cow for state governments, care to guess at actualsBillions in black-market weed still selling in Illinois 18 months after marijuana legalized – Chicago Sun-Times is a good start.

(Yes, we know there’s a big chemical fire in Illinois this morning, but that’s what fire departments – and some national guard – are for.)

The Vaxports are coming!  Why, the hype is everywhere:  The ‘New Normal’ for Employees; Going to Work Will Feel Like Going Through Airport Security Screening in This Post-Pandemic World.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see this slammed through congress despite many states (including here in Texas “just saying no.”  We know this because it’s a talking point where? What Are The Roadblocks to a Covid Vaccine Passport? – The New York Times.

Speaking of our fave bioweapon:  Stunning video reveals Daszak and WHO lied when claiming no bats in the Wuhan Lab says the American Thinker.  Surprising?  Hardly….

Calling all vegan rats!  Plant-based diet protects from hypertension, preeclampsia — ScienceDaily.

And as Political Correctness Disease drives the remnants of America onto the rocks:  the Cleveland Indians name change ‘more complex’ than previously thought, team official says Fox News.  Don’t tell anyone, we watched the 2013 version of The Lone Ranger for a few minutes last night.

UrbanSurvival Rebuilds

We still have no idea why our site went down in the first place – taking 18-years of articles with it.  But, the good side of this is it has given me a chance to find out again “what I’m made of…”

You see, when you get to be of a certain age, your taste for work begins to decline.  Most things in Life become rote as you age because you done it all before.

Rebuilding would not have been possible without the support of my wife, Elaine, who is just tomorrow 4-weeks from a total hip replacement. Her recovery was been nothing short of breath-taking.  Bouncing around and over-doing things just-enough to force her body to spring back in shape.

Me?  Four hours of sleep in 48 is probably not the best thing in the world.  But I’ve lost, count ’em, 4-pounds from this.  Partly due to high coffee intake, partly from not eating for 14-hour stretches, but mostly from running back and forth from the office (in the shop & guest room building) over to the house.

Reason for that was Elaine’s computer was the only one that was keeping the refreshed DNS numbers.  The one’s in the office have been cranky until this morning.  Don’t even get me started on that…

The new hosting outfit is standing by to see if the old hosting provider – where the owner tragically died last month – can get us back-up files we need to continue the restoration work.

Site Improvements

As long as I’m putting the time in, now is when you can have significant input into how UrbanSurvival looks into the future.

Already, there are some changes that should be apparent.  Let me run through some of them for you:

  • You’ll notice that Google ads are back on.  Sorry for the distraction but it’s why Urban exists.  People on Social Security don’t need to be buying web services in the rocking chair.  My deal is simple:  If something makes business sense – and I like it – then balls to the wall.
  • On Desktop displays, you’ll see comment notes are top of the column now.  This is because – since I turned on the Comments section – people have really enjoyed being able to toss their 2-cents in on whatever the wind has blown in that day.  May be useful and save you some scrolling time.
  • For now, the home page will show the entire recent post.  That’s because until we get 10-20 pages (a month, maybe?) into it, there won’t be much to summarize.  We can revisit that in the middle of the summer heatwave.  Because, by then, sitting in front of the A/C with a computer will be like a vacation from hell.  Another reason I am not doing the “two clicks to get to the meaty content?”  Turns out that the Web Archive doesn’t “go deep” in terms of saving pages.  So a lot of the past 24-years of content never got archived.  Very depressing to realize, as an author.  It’s like realizing you’ve lost a child.  (Weird, but there’s 24 years of poured-out soul missing.  And at 48-hours, emotions and a tear well-up from thinking it.  Kinda like “Trees have been falling in the woods, but no one to hear…”  Waste of good trees.
  • I moved-up the “Links” page on the menu.  I haven’t mentioned this off Peoplenomics (because those people actually support BOTH websites when comes down to it) there is a small ” r  “.  Click that and you’ll come to a Research Page where I have collected some interesting links.
  • We’re going to make a Consensus Home Page out of the “links page” if you’d like.   You’re welcome to contribute sources to add.  The idea is to build an alternative to the borg-like mind-control that has swept America ever since Social Media – as part of the Digital Uprising – decided to censor Donald Trump.  Donald Trump was so far from perfect and egotistical I can’t stand it.  BUT – here’s the weird part – there were hardly any of his policies that I disagreed with.  Genius is like that – quirky personality.  Elon Musk’s personality might not be #1 on my “People to drink beer with” list, either.  But as a pinnacle of engineering, no doubt he’s cream of the crop.

Looking Ahead

I’m committed to keeping UrbanSurvival and  Peoplenomics going until “check-out time.”  Because you, dear reader, make it all worth doing.  While my health (and memory) are still really good, I’m trying to make the most of things.

One way you can help?  When you see an article that’s good (there’s bound to be one eventually, lol), please send an email with a link to our sites and introduce people to old-fashioned commonsense American values.

A special treat on Peoplenomics tomorrow:  The first part of my next book:  “Packing to Die:  The Suitcase Between Your Ears.”  It will be on Amazon by-and-by.  But Peoplenomics readers deserve my best.  And since I keep a huge archive of everything over there, there’s often something worth reading and thinking about.

I’ve thought about a “Best of Ure” book – because I have thought so long, hard, and deep about many things.  Mostly in the economics and market sphere.  But a good bit in the adventure zones, too.

A Small Bit of Woo-Woo?

All of the change around here “lit up” the day after I spent time with the first of the space-time hacking experiments which have been written up on Peoplenomics.

For those not familiar, that a look at my books on Amazon and you’ll see one titled Dimensions Next Door.  That book documents and engineering approach to the rediscovery of what modern’s would call “magic”.

Thus, all three of my books deal with the Larger Life few people speak about.  Because, frankly, most don’t spend the critical needed to think things through.

But what I’ve personally come to is that people exist on three levels (hence my three “serious non-financial) books:

  • Dimensions Next Door is about the view from here in the “waking-state” – where we see things (discontinuities, let’s call them: Philadelphia Experiment stories and lore of other events (Montauk, etc.).  The engineering approach takes off from blowing trumpets and collapsing the Walls of Jericho – how intense sound fields may hack space-time.
  • Psychocartography: Mapping the Human Mind is a book about the second aspect of Life.  That place we go hide out for 8-hours a night.  And where we all live some kind of dream lives.  Since the bard hisself (Willy Shakespeare) figures bodily death is like dreaming with no alarm set, by working on dream control while alive we may prep for whatever’s next.
  • Packing to Die: The Suitcase Between Your Ears – which I have to beg Chris Tyreman to do  cover art for so I can get it on Amazon – is a summary of various views of the AfterLife.  Sitting around forever singing hosanna’s  may be your idea of a good time, but…  In that book, I get into the possibilities that Life may be a kind of Simulation.  And the point of Life is to have a great end-of-life Review experience.  And take enough knowledge with you for the next incarnation where we may become co-Creators with the almighty.  No contradiction with any existing religions, to speak of.  Though my “collection plate operations” are considerably smaller.

I don’t know if I’d ever laid out this “big picture of what’s in Ure’s wallet.”  But now that you have it, take what’s useful and fits in your drama/film of life.

Remember that today when you’re finished with this read, you’ll be “rolling film” on another episode that will be played when your Life flashes before your eyes on the way out to whatever’s Next.

So, as always, Write when you get rich – and don’t be shy about tossing comments in the pot.  A lot of the people around here are older and smarter than me and may offer some great advice.  This being an inter-generational, non-gender-specific, non-supremacists of any color,  sharing festival.  Such as it is…

Send everyone in your email contacts a note and tell ’em Urban is back!

Write when you…yada, yada…