Although I can fairly be accused of being something of a whiner about how the US
economy is managed, I’m usually right more than 50% of the time in the end.
And president Obama’s likely nomination of Larry Summers, if it happens, likely
would improve my batting average even further.
Nevertheless, I’ve come up with an idea this week which would – at a stroke –
make congress, the White House, and the American people seem 50 IQ points
smarter when it comes to money and economics overnight. While you let that
one roll around in the noggin, we’ll stop to smell the headlines and the
coffee…Say, did I mention growth sucks?
CJ’s Boolean & Investing in the Ganzfeld
This weekend, reader CJ in Connecticut (who sadly missed out meet-up back there in June) has a very well thought-out question about how economics works…so we will dig into that. Then we’ll ponder how comparative risk between assets classes may be starting to come loose from its moorings…and the ice cream Saturday…er…sundae will be considering how to invest in the Ganzfeld. Before going there, however, a twinge of Gestalt from our usual quick survey of this morning’s headlines. You’ll want to pay close attention this morning because we’re going to use the news to do some ad hoc “Event scoring” as a way to intuit the future and make better investment decisions…as we arrive at another system of handicapping the future on our way to the $2-dollar options window…
A GroupThink Project: Sectorial Dependencies
[Long report warning: >7,000 words]
When someone says the word “GroupThink” I’m sure that there are some negative connotations. But in this morning’s context the term “groupthink” is not a bad thing since we’ll to be using it to help (as a group project for our mutual benefit) to come up with a different way of looking at financial data. Specifically what we’re after is to define interlocking dependencies which can then hone our investing returns not just in the market but also in day-to-day decision-making about life in general. Before starting this new look into mechanistic causality in complex systems though, there’s nothing to starting the day with some headlines as we wait for the idiotic mainstream press to deliver word of the first royal diaper being filled. Oh, wait! That’s already been done...so back to our battle between complexity theory and good old-fashioned economic reductionism.
A Course in Surveillance Algorithms
An algorithm is simply a set of instructions for a computer system to follow in a particular order. In the case of Big Data, the steps are capture, organize, integrate, analyze, and act. Using this approach, we can build a fine example of the many trip-wires an innocent civilian could stumble over in the modern surveillance society. Plus we have our monthly check of west coast port data with is oftentimes a decent truth detector about the economy and an update on many headlines and our trading model. You may need a third cup for this morning’s report…
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A Digital Tulip Progress Check
It is reliably reported that during the peak of Tulip Mania,
offers were made to buy as much as 12-acres of land with a single tulip bulb. Surely, something was amiss, a reasonable person might have argued at the time, but the market price was what it was….and until the mania broke (and fortunes were spilt right and left) it seems for a while like tulips had become a kind of
money. In a previous report, I pointed out some of the fallacy of
Bitcoins, not the least of which is their total reliance on electricity (which
makes them useless in a post-collapse economy) but I also projected a major
decline from then peaks. This morning, we shall update our thinking and
look ahead. After, that is, a nibble of this and a sup of that…this
being breakfast and the sups of Mrs. Olson’s half-caf to brace us for the
descent into digital madness.
The “Grim Oiler”
With our detailed synthesis of the future from Capt. Midnight wrapped up this week, is it time to reconsider the lost spectre of Peak Oil? More important: Can we make (or save) a buck by timing our actions in response>
Capt. Midnight’s Parts 3-5
Since “going off the farm” for a bit, a number of realizations wandered into my personal headspace, a good thing overall, but they are serious tasks which will keep me busy for many months to come. I’m refocusing on self-sufficiency and with good reason. You’ll see why as we serve up the remainder of Capt. Midnight’s five-parter (which will be parsed out in three more “shorties” on the free site, plus we will go into some details about one topic in particular, namely peak oil (thanks to Oilman 2). But first, before rolling up our sleeves, we have a few things to talk about including one topic which I’ve been wrestling with for several weeks for a book I’ve been asked to write…
Futuring With Capt. Midnight
Our friend & colleague who goes by the moniker “Capt. Midnight” offers some savory thoughts about the future which contain many nuggets worth mining. And, if you are thinking about putting off Social Security to pile up more benefits, we offer some alternative thinking…
On Democracies and State Secrets
With a lot of America’s “secrets” coming out, a quick look at some history and some discussion of how state secrets work. Plus, an update on our trading model, of course.
What Cost Power
(Hartford, CT) Based on reports which hit the net this week that hint the government may have sniper teams to kill protesters, we ask the intriguing question “What Cost Power?” and come to an interesting conclusion…
A Technical Trading Note
(Columbus, OH) As we have a demanding travel schedule today, we are posting this morning’s report ahead of time. Our particular focus today is on technical trading… a nice way of saying we’re going to try to keep the bastards in the bankster-class from eating every last dollar of our retirement dreams by keeping one step ahead of things…
The “Missing Link” and some Travel Notes
(Nashville, TN) Our story on de-rusting tools lacked a critical link Saturday, so here it is this morning. Also some flying sights which flying across America’s mid-section…
The Prepper’s Dream Shop
While this week’s report was to have focused on the effect Alfven Waves have on human, hence market, behaviors, we found it downright curious that the very week when we might have been able to draw some solid conclusions about how electricity impacts markets, the HAARP data pages at the University of Alaska disappeared. My, my, well ain’t that curious? While we wait for their crackerjack IT dept. to get them back on line, we will instead focus on the Prepper’s Dream Shop…how to set up for whatever this way comes. After, of course, Mrs. Olson stumbles through with another dose of half-caf.