What is the Data Telling Us?

A reader asked me what I thought of some fellow running around the ‘net telling people he had inside information that the US population was going to be reduced 88% by 2025.  Said reader asked “What is Ure take on it?”

Simple:  Doom porn. 

Hey, it’s an industry and – one could argue since I have worked so much on future/futuring, one that I bear some responsibility for helping to create.

That said, I have renounced the doom porn crowd and it has cost thousands upon thousands of insecure, nail-biters, anxious to be believe the end is near.

The truth?  Ain’t no 88% pop-redux (or global coastal events so far) despite whatever the “End is Near and we’ll sell it to yah” types are peddling.

So instead this morning you’ll have to deal with a likely market decline which – while it won’t end the future of humans – WILL be something you might want to avoid.  Or, if you’re a horrible old capitalist, you might want to scalp a few bucks on.  But first….

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Can the Recovery Recover?

While the “happy-talk crowd” continues to crow about how well the economy is doing, the reality as shown by multiple indicators paints a different picture.

We’ll brush off a little of the optimism this morning, but not without being mindful that a herd of lemmings is a difficult thing to turn, even if their thinking is quite wrong-headed.

We’ll saddle up and ride into some hard data after headlines and coffee.  One needs a bit of reinforcing before taking on a full herd of lemmings.

Reader Note: We will be filing a formal complaint today about site caching by a certain California group which insists on serving up outdated UrbanSurvival content.  Problem is not on our end – it’s in how caching is being operated by those who apparently don’t appreciate our candid views on things.

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The Canals of Earth and Mars

imageWith the drought kicking up its heels again in California, we head out on a limb this morning and sketch up what could be the upcoming environmental fight of a lifetime.  As usual, we’re going to be way ahead of the crowd on this, and it may not happen for another 100-years. 

The timing will be set by the oscillations of El Nino and La Nina, which seem to be at extremes presently, which is causing the drought to be quite horrific in the Southland.  However, as we all know, it’s not the first time – and the great California drought from the 1840’s through the Civil War period – a period of similar terrible farming conditions – can hardly be blamed on global warming.  That doesn’t stop modern tax and spenders, though. 

This morning we inspect a plan to solve California’s water crisis, and all it will take is trashing millions of acres of Canada and First People lands to do it.  Oh, and a hell of a tax hit, too.

But before we lay out the coming environmental nightmare, we’ll do headlines and bow down again to our Trading Model which unerringly got us through the recent choppiness in the market with some of the best guidance out there.  Who would have thought?

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The Case for Europe’s Coming Currency Collapse

There’s been some talk about Europe’s currency (the Euro) coming to parity with the U.S. dollar.  This morning, we’re going to prepare by taking that data a bit farther, along with some other deflationary indicators, and see if there’s not a bit of opportunity for us “wannabe world traveler” types.

Meantime, the monumental egomaniacs of EU banking have been called out in demonstrations against their $1.4 billion Euro offices in Frankfurt.  And you wonder by the EU has been dropping?  No EUkraine sweep and now this….tisk, tisk.

After we’re done with the data review, it won’t be time to pack, but it does lead to some interesting possibilities for late this year into perhaps 2017-2018.

First, though, a look at our Trading Model and why it says the Fed can talk tough all it wants, but the pressure is on them now to keep rates low, become even more accommodating, as the world’s currencies slip into “push on a wet noodle” mode, common to all deflationary spiral economic environments toward the end.

Pour more coffee, Mr. Cheerful is here…

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Homesteading and Retirement Tax Angles

This weekend we’ll look at a few western states to consider how “friendly” they are for retirement and homesteading for the small farmer/homesteader.

One of the things you’ll quickly find is that some states could give Mafioso loan sharks a run for their money when it comes to ripping off seniors.  Or, is it just sound public policy?  We’ll leave that to you to decide.

After some headlines and our Trading Model, and coffee, of course.

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Algorithmic Programming in Society

Perhaps the hardest task of any serious-minded investor is staying ahead of social trends in America.  To do this, one needs to be able to estimate the direction and velocity of different social mood. 

For example, investing in a gay nightclub in the 1950’s likely wouldn’t have worked out too well.  Whereas investing in one in the mid 1990’s might have made you a fortune.  So time is what?  Everything!

Understanding how algorithm run our lives (via media inputs) is therefore critical.  So this morning we sit back and review from of my first-hand in the Top-40 radio wars of the 1970’s and see if there aren’t some economic ideas to be screened from that.

First, however, a look ahead with our Trading Model to see where your retirement money could be heading and a few headlines, since foreplay is half the fun.  Okay, an eighth of it then…

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PEROEI: What it Is, How to Think It

It’s actually a half cousin to another kind of thinking we refer to all the time around here:  Algorithmic thinking.

Used to be in the Personal Motivation groups that the buzz was all about “motivation.”

Now, however, we’re evolving out of PMA (positive mental attitude) and into CCT (coldly calculated thinking) as the way to get ahead.

Exactly what you’d expect to see as the feedlot fills up with too many humans.  So along with an update on where we are with Peak Oil and how the collapse of the American energy industry (now at hand) will be levered by the Saudis into even more of a dog leash on American foreign policy, you’ll find this way of “running your life” pretty interesting.

This morning, the upside of PEROEI and how to get somewhere despite the herd.

After headlines and headlines with coffee and bacon.

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Prepper Notes: Grab & Go Bags and Chips

We wrote a definitive article on grab and go bags for subscribers back in 2008.  Yet as times change, our outlook has changed as well.

This morning’s we’ll explore how our grab-and-go plans have evolved and discuss how to do a “grab-and-go chip” in style and what to have on it.

Along the way, we’ll talk about your personal grimoire (magician’s spell book) updated to include digital recovery content should you ever need it.

First, though, our usual skim of headlines, most of which is beyond our control, but out Trading Model is always worth looking at.  Coffee at the ready?  It’s a big gulp this morning…

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What Would You Do If You Won the Lottery?

Yes, I mean seriously.

No, neither Elaine or I have ever won anything larger than $65 in the weekly lottery tickets we’ve bought over the years, but then again, lottery tickets are properly called “taxes on the poor” or “tax the statistically inclined.

Still, there are times…

But the real reason to use “Winning the Lotto” as a financial thinking tool is that it forces you to look realistically at all the investment options out there. 

And that, I believe, is a very worthwhile thing to do at least once a month.  After our Sunday coffee and dose of headlines that matter.

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Financial Icebergs Colliding

Subscriber Note:  This Weekend’s report will be published around mid day Sunday because I really need more bandwidth than is practical shipboard (like some www.nostracodeus.com software runs on financial sites to make sure we’re using Big Data to our advantage.  I’ll be running data scanning from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning and then working out how to read those text leaves…

(Somewhere of Honduras)  This morning we pull back the curtains to reveal the chart no one in government bothers to mention.  The reason?  It’s based on a couple of things that go largely unreported in the mainstream press.  Among these is the inflation-adjusted income level or workers, the real population of the US (which yes, includes deployed military) and from this we can make a most revealing chart of how economic reality has been working out.

Which, it shouldn’t surprise you, is much more like the economic long wave than the touts of this or that from either party.

If you’re strongly partisan, it will be a disappointment.  The political process, when you count all the bodies and all the inflation adjusted average earnings data has merely reduces politics to the Pinocchio Party and the Lying Fishermen’s Party…and we’re all out for a cruise with them.

Care to guess among what?

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The World’s Oldest Prepper’s Manual

How old is the earliest advice on prepping?

We think we’ve traced some fine country wisdom back to Ionian times, and while much longer than our usual report, once you get past all the references to Zeus (plus instructions on where to pee and where not to…) there is actually some interesting folk wisdom to be had.

So this week, a look into the past as we look at the long history of prepping and making our way in an uncertain world.  Which has been an uncertain place for at least the past 2,000 years and we got the goods to prove it.

After coffee and news headlines not to mention our Trading Model.  I mean the world may be uncertain, but no need to be poor, now, is there?

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Is FAME a New Kind of Money?

Okay, the past month or so, we have been looking at the weird changes to what was once a fairly straightforward science called economics which is now being spun on his head by not only digital currencies but something even stranger: Fame.

This was covered a while back by PBS in one of their outstanding FrontLine reports dealing with Friends, Followers, and Fame. It was titled “Generation Like.”  But they didn’t roll deeply into the economic implications so we’ll do that this morning.

The problem is that in a digital society, a new form of currency is evolving before our eyes. This morning we’ll take an unabashed look at this weird phenomenon and see if we can make sense of it and what it portends for our future.

As usual however, we will begin with coffee, a few headlines, and then that ever important Trading Model.

Unless we suddenly become famous before we get that far…which would be fine…

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Compunism: How it’s Killing the Music Industry

It’s Valentine’s Day and we all love music, right? This week I’m going to take you on a short tour of our home recording studio and explain how it grew into what it is today.  Which has what to do with economics?  Talk about an industry rocked by changing technology!  Yee-gads!

I mean besides showing you a shopping list for a kick-but home project studio for under $500? (*Not including computer), you are going to see first-hand how all this “new media” stuff is killing off the old-guard music business.

You see, there is a huge war on between the old and the Avant-new. Our slowly developing project http://musicengineerandproducer.com/ and building multitrack facilities in L.A. does allow for something approaching expert analysis in this area…

Since you may not own a small home/commercial studio, you may not be following the trends in the music biz.  They are…to put it mildly…horrific.  We’ve got some Nielsen data to back that up.

The problem?  It’s a huge challenge to Central Control…which is one more reason the Internet will end up being regulated in some form, because it is killing the way things used to be…as we’ll get into after coffee and headlines and the Trading Model…which has continued to outperform even the best of the TV pundits.  Amazing….

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