Losing Our Past, Dooming Our Future

So much for the Hillary Rally (“Rallary“) the market put on Tuesday.  This morning we’re back to the bull and bear slugfest in earnest..

Futures were up a tad, but we’re really in a trading range as you’ll see in this morning’s ChartPack.

Our main concern now is not so much about the looming (early 2017) recession.  It’s about the horrific debt burden on young people from things like education debt, that will dramatically slow, or even prevent the next recovery.

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Markets Face "Floptober" Says Reality Ratio

This will take a bit of discussion to fully understand.  But off in the background, I use a series of indicators and one of these relates to bond pricing as a function of stock prices.  It typically will show a peak (and / or passing) well before the stock market follows suit.

Which, says the indicator now, should result in a mighty painful “Floptober” to come.

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The Leading Edge of Chaos

This morning we line up a lot of data.  Everything from cops shooting blacks to the gasoline pipeline mess that has resulted in gas lines in the Southeast.  Then we toss in some economic data and distill it down to an economic forecast that begins to look like the leading edge of Chaos.

Before that, however, a whole bunch of charts and some discussion of why the Fed is NOT expected to raise rates today – I mean beyond the obviousness of being too close to the election to be considered non-political. 

So bean-up partner…time to roll…

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A Periodic Systems Check

Seems like a good morning to look up from the general news flow – which is way too political anyway – and look at some of the other stories going on.

These are more fun to consider, anyway, since they will form our lives more than whoever ends up being the housekeeper on Pennsylvania Avenue.

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HR for SHTF, Sales Process for Mate-Search

Not only that, but in this morning’s ChartPack, we discuss a number of “Lazarus Lines” in chart theory where a sudden Hillary recovery could be auspicious, or not so much.

Wait:  Did he say he say “Sales Processes for Mating?”

Oh, sure.  Life is not a singular thing and you question me when I tell you dating is sales?  Of course it is…and it applied to everyone including seniors who are eyeing the uncertain future.  So yeah, a worthwhile process discussion to be undertaken.

Sounds like an interesting cup of noodles, doesn’t it?

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Bloody Monday? Don’t Panic

Today we will skip the more theoretical economics discussions – the commentary Wednesday on why tax cuts won’t work for Trump should be enough reading to keep you busy thinking for a while.

Instead, we will look at our Trading Model’s results for the week and then see how there is a chance (though small) that we could test S&P 1,820 before the election.

That, in turn, leads to a very mix of “Janet’s Thumb” on the Fed decision to come and how the more panic democrats work themselves into about Trump, the more rotten the markets will be by the time voters show up.

Coffee and headlines to begin, though.  Then into our extended ChartPack discussion.

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Trump’s One Chance to “Thread the Needle”

Yes, there is some good news about debt., 

With the help of some input from my friend Jas Jain, we take a look at why Reaganonomics worked and why a Trump version of tax cuts could would be a disaster.

Then we explore the one way Trump could “thread the needle just so...” and come up with a win that might work for both the US and our trading-partners and bondholders.

Longshot?  Maybe not.,..

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Labor Day: Humans Losing War With Machines

Seriously somber stuff to discuss on Labor Day, no doubt.

But we are not as humans doing a credible job of either measuring the machines to humans ratios, nor are we tracking the machine thinking ratio to human thought ratio. 

WTFU:  This is described by a single word.  Blindsided.

And no, that post on FB or that trolling you’ve been doing on Tinder doesn’t count as work output, sorry.

So yeah…humans are losing the game.  We have spawned the machines and the data says they’re  coming to get us.  We connect the dots between the pending escape of A.I., the collapse of the markets to come, and a 1931 pinball game…

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Fading Prospects for Pharmacists

With Labor Day almost here (yeah – is it time yet?) we have to take a look at a pharmaceutical dispensing industry where everything seems to be going wrong on the employment front.  Useful to study, too because it’s the road a lot of other industries will be following and as such, is a useful “canary in the coal mine.”

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Turn on a War: Rally the Sheep

Think the odds of a flash war are low?  Think again.

As one of our readers noted, former president Clinton tossed some bombs around to try and get rid of/distract from the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Will such a distraction be used this fall?

Obviously we don’t know, But there are some bothersome potential conflicts out there…along with a novel form of terrorism.

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The Coming Global Bail-Ins

Yep.  Not before the elections, though.   Just waiting for Obama II (Hillary) to make it into office and then all signs point to a meltdown in early 2w016 because the Fed won’t have any choice but to raise rates – which will blow up the national debt,  or they will stand par and the world will collapse into Depression II that way.

In either event, we’re screwed.  Sure, paid up real estate that can grow food is the real answer…one we’ve been walking the talk on for a long time.  But wow…here it comes.

So this morning we go into why gold and silver will go down first…long before sound money becomes vogue and we look at some of the ways the bail-in processes could work.

Oh…and there are no effective hiding places for the middle class.  Check with Soviet era pensioners if you doubt me.

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Monetizing Your Butt

Nope, we’re not going for the all-time crudeness award here.

What we are doing is putting a new phenomena under the microscope to prove 8-billion people loose in the world don’t have anything else to do other than make-up new and exciting ways to take money from you.

This is the stuff big government and,  oh yeah, major changes in bathroom use – and not of the silly gender-ending type – are made of.

We seek lessons in the darnedest places, seems like.

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A Presidential Election Lesson

I’ve been hard at the charts this week and what I have to share this morning is enough to cause any sane person to consider dropping out of the presidential contest.  2017 mas “major ugly” potential.

You see:  Whoever “wins” may be looking down the barrel of a 25-30% market decline (or worse) in 2017.  It may drift above, or below that, based on how well Europe holds together (if it does at all) and how much redirection China makes to sub out consumer goods for military prepping for an eventual showdown over the South China Sea..  Not until 2022-2025, though.

Yes, we may get a “nominal” winner in November, but maybe this “win” won’t be such a bright and sparklyfirst year as we recall how 2001 and 2009 turned out…and see where we are right now.

Coffee first, however.  No point going on with a sleepy brain when taking on great matters of State and Wallet.

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