Revisiting the “Deathidemic”

(Gig Harbor, WA)  A couple of Julys ago, a friend of ours lost a son to suicide – a problem which continues to grow in the world.  So at this time of year we reflect on what kind of world we’ve made that drives people to end life prematurely.  A look at headlines is only part of it, but an important part, I expect.

But here lately, with the problems of Ebola, the stress of Ferguson, and more, we begin to wonder if increasing socioeconomic pressures globally might be ramping up (generalizing, if you will) the human death rate.  Against this backdrop, might the methods and techniques of medicine be used to study socioeconomic issues in a new way by using patterns of analysis similar to those employed in epidemiology?

There’s animal research, human psychological research, and the evidence right before us with things like road rage and the like.

The most intriguing question, though, as we survey the deathidemic is this:  Is more money a cure, or is it the vector of disease transmission?  And when we get that one figured out, maybe we can work up a “treatment program” for humans.  Well, at least, it’s a noble thought.

More practically, this morning we look at recent news as a disease and we look at how (like the flu) ideas get passed around and how the media “treats” outbreaks of socioeconomic disease.

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Self-Sufficiency: What Money Drives us to…

A special thank you gift this morning for Peoplenomics subscribers as I’m on the road for the rest of the weekend and not able to generate a lot of original research while driving…

So thanks to co-author (and great human), JB Slear of www.fortwealthtrading.com, we present a free download of our MyGroPonics 3 book which you’ll maybe want to print out and have in your “Keeper” file of reports.  Along with JB’s phone number for when you get the itch to try some commodity option trading.  Great guy and his Trader’s Blog offers an alternative view on many topics including the trading ranges of the precious metals.

Then we have a few comments on cross country travel, occasioned by another 8-hours on the road.  But the real sanity question about how humans are presently organized was brought about by our re-introduction to the fine are of driving rain on the tiniest little freeway ever, I-25 from the E-740 expressway…and that gets us to another tale of turning a public highway into a toll road…because government can’t live within its own means.  But stick around till the blood pressure comes down from how highway taxery works in the Mile High world.

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So: Ure on Vacation, huh?

Yes….and no.  And not quite.

We will still cut through a couple of news items, and we’ll update our trusty (so far) Trading Model, but then we drift out of our super-serious economics to ponder what it’s like getting ready to actually live in a different city for an extended period of time.

Once upon a time I knew what to pack:  Two suits and a credit card or three…good to go for however long.

But today I’m stumped:  Do I go like EMP could arrive unexpectedly?  Is Ebola going to get loose?  How do we get back to the ranch in a total breakdown of the economy?  Like famine or drought are here to stay?

Thursday morning we’ll push back about 7 AM, leaving Panama armed to the teeth (the cats are lousy shots) to fend for the place as we head out on another one of our “Half Around America” tours.  Today we’ll discuss the important stuff like  “The Ure’s Casino Highway...” and a comparison of direct booking versus the “convenience” of doing everything online…betcha can’t guess how that worked out…

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Inflation Data: How ”Real” are Government Figures?

This morning – thanks to a reader accidentally finding some old personal budget information from 1989 – we have the opportunity to do a little “double-checking” of how inflation has worked out (in the REAL world, as opposed to the “hypothecated, seasonally-adjusted” world of bureaucrats.

So how close did they get it?  You’ll enjoy our research…

After we get  coffee…no point in trying to force the brain into action too quickly; it is summer after all…

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Ebola and the Mathematics of Disaster

The phrase that we consider in this morning’s report is “Ebola as a generalized exogenous shock to markets.”  We also refer to the October 12, 2013 Peoplenomics report “The Solution No One Wants to Talk About” in which the economic efficacy of a pandemic die-off as an ideal plot of the 1% to kill off mere peeps.  In purely hypothetical terms, mind you, but it’s resolving as shockingly close to the mark as headlines come out.

Key for markets, too:  We are down to just slightly below 50-day moving averages in a number of indices we track.  Although it’s axiomatic that “markets don’t crash from all-time highs” it’s also true that the American markets have backed off recent highs and are sitting at first levels of support, and may extend below them when the Dow opens down 50 and the S&P challenges 1,900.

Hence this morning’s outlook.  Not without coffee and headlines, and this begins with a discussion of how cyber security is coming around again – this time with 1.2 billion stolen passwords, and some notes on dealing with that problem.  If you’d read my ebook Broken Web The Coming Collapse of the Internet, you’d likely share my lack of surprise at what’s happening now.  And as a subscriber you’ll be comforted that Peoplenomics has no exposure because of a strategic decision make long ago… so let’s begin with that discussion. 

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Ebola Preps and an Electronics Class

This morning’s adventure – after the latest on Ebola prepping and my, what an odd coincidence -  involves a trip to the electronics bench for some on-the-job-training (in the wake of EMP) so you may be able to get a critical piece of equipment going again by being able to repair its power supply.

This is NOT a complete course on electronics, but by the time we’re done with this morning’s discussion, you should have enough knowledge to put together a “basic prepping” electronics kit that MAY be able to solve some of the problems that we’d expect on the “back-side” of Dark.

And what does this have to do with the economy and markets?  People did not always live on a diet of paper and plastic.  In fact, most of human history features people actually DOING stuff, rather thank getting paid for “thinking” which usually comes down to scheming.

So in addition to our view of the markets which we’ll review in our chart pack and Trading Model, it sure makes sense to use the available time to do the important things of life, like get our “poop in a group” when comes to prepping.

First, we’ll run through our morning rituals:  A few headlines, examples of how common-sense has gone out of style, then into the charts, and then Mr. Thumbs will show you how to fix a power supply.

You’ll find today’s report…er…shocking…

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Electronic Prepping: What You Didn’t Know…

Since I wrote the book “Broken Web: The coming collapse of the Internet” (yes, you can get it on Amazon) I’ve been watching many of the things forecast in that book come into view and become part of the American consciousness.

This morning we present the first of two reports this week, one of which is a free piece of software that might increase your personal privacy and which may help insulate you from coming internet attacks on American infrastructure.

And then, this coming weekend, we hope to have ready an interview with Manfred Rolle, who’s one of the leading internet security gurus (and architect with chief software designer Jens) of the very successful Maxa Cookie Manager. 

Sure, canning, heritage seeds, water purification and 1,800 FPM rounds may seem like great prepping items, but we covered most of that for subscribers in back issues over the past 13-years of Peoplenomics issues in the subscriber archive.  Things like raising goats and solar power system design?  Sure, old hat.  MRE storage temps?  I’m sure we’ve covered it somewhere…

But with all that prepping behind us (not to mention our EMP strategies) we have moved a lot closer to being able to deal with the “real-time threats” and hence this morning’s focus.

After coffee and nosh…can’t bravely go where no one else bothers on an empty tummy, or half asleep, can we?

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Those Who Forget History…

….are damned to repeat it.

So this morning, we walk into what the librarians of this world used to call “the stacks” as we try to size up some correlative data about the pre-Depression run-up to the all time (until then) Great Depression.

Our quest this morning is two-fold:  First to see what some of the missing data might tell us, and secondly to see how the “humans in denial” phenomena works.

After headlines and coffee, as is our weekend ritual around here.

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A Federal Reserve “Disaster Timer?”

Is it too early to use existing hints in Big Data to tell us when might be an ideal time to have a crash?  Not that a Crash larger than 1929 is something we look forward to, mind you.  But aside from making all that prepping worthwhile, it also will give us a lot of planning time for our few (and regrettably small) trades to try and stay ahead of the Financial Grim Reaper.

So this morning we come up with one way to look at when the world falls apart in a serious way; not that it couldn’t go sooner, but with a planning horizon, things are just a whole lot more comfortable…just like when in early 2008 we developed multiple views of what would happen later that year and into 2009.

First, though, a few headlines and a look at our Trading Model to see where things are as the S&P percolates just under the psychologically important 2,000 level…

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The Biggest Discovery of Our Lifetime?

What would qualify for the term “brain quake?”  That’s a term that could describe what could happen if science (quite by accident) tripped over a discovery that could justify a whole new brand of Life.   Up until now, we’ve been a world full of “converters.”  Not very efficient ones at that; we eat food, convert it to the proteins and sugars we need and blithely assume that’s how all Life works.

Except, it ain’t.

A huge discovery this week has started a real brain quake.  And, as I’ll explain, this one could ripple beyond anyone’s imagination.

First, though, our usual Saturday morning repast:  Coffee, headlines, and say, that Trading Model of ours has kept us coming up green once again…But then we’ll get into e-bacs and the world will then start to look particularly weird….

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The Future for Millenials

A look into the next 10-years for Millenials this morning, along with a visit to my electronics bench were we will turn a sine wave pattern on an oscilloscope into a useful economic teaching too.  But first, we need to go over a few things including the PPI numbers just out this morning and the other floating bits of madness.  With coffee, of course…

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Computational Intelligence and the "Verne Cycle"

As much as I lover spreadsheets, databases, data-mining, and neural networks, one of the biggest problems we keep stumbling toward (as technology continues to run-ahead of gray matter) really comes down to one ugly question:

Assume you have all the computational horsepower on the planet. 

Given this, what would your methodology be to design a profitable trading tool?

Computational investment algorithms aren’t a lightweight topic for a Peoplenomics report (far more complicated that robust home power or bug-out bags for preppers) but they do present…uh….certain challenges that are intriguing.  So this morning’s discourse will will attack the high-level review design problem. 

After coffee, headlines, and our trusty trading model review…

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Bye-Bye Border: Mexification of Estados Unidos:

Seems to me that Washington has declared war on America.  I don’t say this lightly:  As a life-long patriot and believer in a strong, secure, well-defended United States of America I am shocked and appalled by the mind-game being perpetrated on the American public by political leadership that is actively subverting the whole premise of international borders; namely to keep it clear which country is which.  It’s been in the works as Border XXI and it’s being unilaterally implemented by (care to guess who?) right now..

But that discussion is quickly becoming irrelevant because the American people are being mass-media hoodwinked into a very grim “deal with the devil” that will end up bankrupting America at either the economic or moral level, and more (more likely) both.  But before we delve into what the numbers say (and this will be another fact-based discussion, not idle speculation), we’ll have decaf this morning since your blood pressure’s bound to rise when you look at the data.

The longwave economic implications?  Socialism flourishes in this economic season and since we already have our modern analog to the Civilian Conservation Corp in place (www.americorps.gov ) why not more government spending to artificially create jobs?  Worked in the last Depression, so why not this one?

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