A Response to Deagel

(Tacoma, WA)  This morning we take on one of the more interesting sites on the web –  site which is has military/strategic planning roots and which has a very scary forecast of what could happen to the US population in the next 10-years.

Along the way, we will bump into a whole crop of conspiracy theories and we’ll kick the tires on things like the supposed pending announcement of a Planet-X/Niburu disclosure for this fall.

But alas!  As always, by sticking doggedly with the data, we arrive at a truth

Not one we were in a hurry to get to, but one to be included on our Threat Board, nevertheless.

As usual, however, we will save the grim stuff until after we gnaw on the market results from Tuesday trading and look ahead a bit into what today will bring.  Besides long lines at stores and gas stations as people prepare to party over the long holiday weekend for the 4th.

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Our Future: Wahalaylias and Mind Maps

(Tacoma, WA)  A longer than usual report this weekend (don’t expect more than a brief update Wednesday) but more complete than most in that today we will not only embellish on our rather dismal outlook for the coming 10 year period, but we shall also share a few thinking tools and how we use them for analyzing complex situations.

And then we will get into the weird stuff – which after we work through a number of levels of analysis won’t seem all that weird, at all.

And that’s where we will discuss the Wahalaylia – a new kind of percussion device – that arrived as a dream while consorting with future spirits in a post EMP, post-DNA war world.

All over the board?  D’uh.  But somewhere along the continuum of complete hard science and the skill of the quants, all the way over to the shamans at the other margin whose hardest defined point is the human heart, is the place that will describe future.

Our task this morning is to identify that place.  And we’ll begin with a cocktail napkin concept mapping exercise, right after we wade through the headlines. 

Oh, and I tell you that at least one real honest-to-God investment strategist thinks our Trading Model has been pretty damn useful.

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Mapping the Next 10-Years

(Tacoma, WA)  After spending much of the past five days in a slightly depressurized space, with not much to do but spot the odd airplane here and there, and remembering to breath deeply at 8,500 feet, things just sort of started falling into place.  The future.

So this morning some reflections of a possible future – and one that has at least some circumstantial support.

But, before we get into this, we’ll have our usual dose of mid-week headlines and an update on our Trading Model, which continues to astound readers with its incredible accuracy predicting the market.

It’s like having tea leaves in 24-point Arial bold…  Next question is whether we like tea…

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Robo-Shock: This Future ISN’T What You Think

Once again, as we sit twiddling our thumbs waiting for the Federal Reserve non-decision on raters today, we venture into the swamp of robotics as we try to see ahead through the haze; cast by a blizzard of press releases and hype.

What we know at the outset is that the Great Depression was largely caused by economic displacements.  Farmers, who raised draft animals, had their livelihoods ripped out from under them by “traction motors” (tractors, we call ’em nowadays).  This – coupled with a huge migration into cities and falling commodity prices due to mass production which was coming into its own, combined to totally trash the global economy.

This time around, we are seeing different kinds of migration (gender, illegals, drought-driven) and we’re seeing a different kind of job-minimization occur driven by business process computing and our friendly robotics.

This morning we vision a bit.  Then this weekend, we will ponder whether we get the deflationary collapse like the USA Great Depression experience, or whether the passage of TPP by Corporations which are all over it like white on rice will demand “reparations” from debt-stuffed civilian governments that will fire off a Weimar-like hyperinflation.

I think of this as the diabetic economy:  Blood sugar too low and you’re dead, blood sugar too high and…  Except instead of the sweetness of sugar, we’re dealing with the vinegary aftertaste of excess debt.

All of which leads to the question:  So now what?

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TPP (Son of NAFTA) and Other Lies

They’ll be back  TPP ain’t over yet.

You know, I got a real kick out of my local Congressoid’s canned letter to me on the Secret Consumer Busting legislation embodied in TPP.  Still secret, by the way…even  after a vote.  Look surprised.  It’ll screw you…that’s why.

So this morning, we take some temperature readings on the last time the USA decided to “regulate itself into prosperity” – which, if you haven’t noticed, doesn’t work.  At least on this side of the border.

As always for subscribers, we won’t use a single expletive in laying out the data (there’s lot of it).  The challenge may well be whether you will be able to hold back the spew when you’re done reading.

Trade deals that have been negotiated since Bill Clinton’s other big lie (NAFTA will be good for us…) It’s just another way corporations have found to monetize hostage populations.

Nice world, huh?

Fortunately, we have coffee and aspirin this morning, so help yourself and we’ll warm up with a few trading model data points and a learned discussion of why the Federal Reserve will likely raise rates sooner than later…in order to more perfectly replay 1929…

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Would Raising the MinWage Fix Anything?

A key topic rolls around today…as we have finally gotten rid of some vicious attack code aimed at UrbanSurvival.  We always know we’re “close to the bone” in our analysis projects when the website attacks ratchet up.

But it matters not.  We know that the robots are coming, and we know that earlier thoughtful analysis was likely right on point (e.g. not enough jobs to go around).  Which is what the Bilderberg people are worrying about right now.

So this morning, some expert commentary from my friend Howard Hill (Finance Monsters) about how a bump up in the minimum wage would impact the economy.

With jobs on track to become about half as plentiful and in 10-years, or less, it’s not a trivial problem.

Especially if you like to eat, now and then.

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Selling Us Down the River? Saturated Consumers & the TPA/TPP

I suppose you want me to explain what the secret TPP / TPA has to do with Jade Helm, don’t you?  Well, fine…but it’s two cups worth of reading…Global government has been rolled out.

One of our ongoing problem with the “Constant Growth Model” of the economy is it blows up without growth.  The long and short of this one (we’ll get into details) is that if growth indeed slows significantly, we will have a serious problem with economic things blowing up around the whole Pacific Rim and a lot of it will be aimed our way.

And that gets us to the second (related) discussion point.  Namely, what exactly is in the proposed (and still secret) discussions about TPP?

Oh, just the handover of America should we welch on our unpayable debts to China and Japan.  So yes, that’s why TPP is a secret.

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Templates, Boundaries, and Logical Limits

Thanks to a subscriber in Nebraska, and a call from my consigliore Monday, we have some important new concepts that are percolating around under the surface of economic discussions.

As you know, I hold that doom-sayers are often incorrect.  While it is tempting to listen to them, it is often disastrous, as well, when comes to preserving one’s lifestyle, financial assets, and happiness.

At the same time, however, embracing the future must be done carefully, as well, because if BitCoin is any model, the dangerous of excess optimism is what leads to buying BitBubbles much as it led to buying tulips back in 1634.

So what are the thinking tools that can help us to avoid such pitfalls?  This morning we discuss three.

After – that is – we get a daily dose of headlines and considers our Charts and Trading Model.  Accompanied by coffee and toast.

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10-Years After: Some Personal Scoring

Ah, sorry to disappoint, but the topic this morning has nothing to do with the 19670’s Rock & Roll band by that name (Ten Years After video here).  With apologies to Alvin Lee.

Nevertheless, in terms of economics, I’d still “like to change the world” (which makes sense only if you lived the 70s) and to do so, it takes a certain ability to “be hard on self.”

So this morning, we roll back the time machine and go through some of the views proposed in 2005 and see how our track was doing back then and whether our calls then were really any good, or not.

Should be an interesting adventure… after coffee, Trading Model and a few of those distraction-inducing headlines that pass for “news” these days.

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Is the Internet Wrecking Infrastructure?

We consider (between the rain and power blinks here in Texas) how soon we start seeing some real declines in things like hotel, rental cars, and travel as business is moving more and more to video conferencing in lieu of travel?

And, we take a look at what our Trading Model is doing in the wake of the sell-off yesterday that closed the S&P below short-term support.

So grab the coffee….here comes a data dump…

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How to Turn Your Hobbies Into Cash

This being a holiday weekend, and since – as our Trading Model has been insisting, the market ain’t crashing – how about we spend some time penciling out ways to make money with your hobby?

We can evolve an approach that works with any hobby, but it takes a little thinking through the ‘How to get there part.”

Not to worry, my friend…that’s what Peoplenomics is all about – the really important parts about money…the parts we can enjoy…

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