Peoplenomics | Financial News, Trends, and Stock Market Analysis

Denial is powerful stuff, so our next task is to blast through some common misconceptions about how closely we are rhyming with events of the (First) Depression and other economic watershed events. I refer to the study of cycles - the periodic waxing and waning of human events that may be driven by, or causative of change. It's the topic "Nobody wants to talk about" in mainstream academics. Using cycle studies, we might speculate about the date a coming World War. Or, we may be able to see some repetition in patterns of malinvestment by 'common folks' in stocks and bonds over innovation cycles. It all adds up to a viable alternative to "pure market dynamics" as those focused hypnotically on quantitative analysis would otherwise have policymakers believe. Invention and innovation, not the application of formulaic obscura, is what creates your future. Be warned that the trance of formulas and symbols is not about your prosperity....

The little ebook I wrote called "How to Live on $10,000 a year...or less!" has been incredibly successful. No, it hasn't been stocked by Amazon, nor has it been picked up by a major publishing house. But it's been successful by the number of lives it has changed & improved; things publishers and retailers may give lip service to, but when comes right down to brass tacks in publishing, everyone's got to make a buck, and that's cool. I'm undeterred from my personal mission, however, which is to open people's heads a bit, give them new ways of looking at old problems, and above all remind people that the only wealth that survives death is the bank vault of riches between your ears. If that vault is empty, then Life hasn't been properly lived. So over the course of the coming month or two, we'll step back far enough from the theoretical trading and investment side of Peoplenomics to address the nitty-gritty of "Whatcha gonna do when?" Because that "When" is getting really damned close now.

Every year about this time, at least since 2000, I've made it a practice to issue an 'annual forecast' in order that to have a set of expectations against which investment decisions can be benchmarked. To accomplish this, I've used numerous methods in the past include nonlinear trend projection, basic econometric modeling, and even to some extent predictive linguistics. But this year, due to the special nature of the times just ahead I've worked up a new 'graphic modeling' approach that avoids the heavy-duty math and is quite intuitive. Hopefully, you'll enjoy the approach but as we get into it, you'll discover, as I did while doing the research, that the results give a nearly dire outlook for 2009. Not unsurvivable, at least for most, but at the same time it's clear in this modeling exercise that the Depression of the 1930's could look like a 'walk in the park' compared to what's coming.

Every now and then a friend of acquaintance will ask "How did you become an economist?" I tend to look at them with the evil eye and explain that I'm not really an economist - in the academic sense of the term - just a practical sort of fellow who works quite diligently at observing what's in front of his own nose. The odds of me making it into the history books for 'the' breakthrough economic insight are pretty damn slim, if zero is slim. But, on the other hand, if I can do a Darwinian job of classifying evidence of the Second Depression, sorting it out, and trying to make sense of it, maybe a minor book on the subject some day would be useful. The plot line of such a book? Personal Indicators - Economic. P.I.E. for short; learning to see things as they are ... where it matters - in your own back yard.

Oh, sure, asking "How much inflation is just right?" may sound like an economist sneaking up on another nearly unknowable secret of the Universe like "How many neocons can dance on the side of an issue?" -- but it's not. Like everything else in life, we ought to be able to take a reasonable guestimate and use it for personal planning as we try to sort out what's ahead over the coming couple of years. Once we get some kind of handle on how the next few years could work out, making inflation/deflation decisions - like when do I buy that used sports car and when do we pick up a couple of small rental houses on the cheap become far easier and less mistake-prone. Assuming, that is, we get our estimates right. So, roll up your sleeves and let's get to it - time to see if the spendocrats and bureauboggles have a prayer, or whether the global economy is going to pass away forever from its worsening present condition on life support. Defibrillator paddles & calculators at the ready?

Most weeks, Peoplenomics will try to get into a single topic, sniff around a bit, and see if there's any 'logical' (such as humans pretend) outcome to be deduced from a pile of available facts. But, this week's report is more akin to stepping into an emergency services dispatch center: There are so many 'if-then' possibilities about that it nearly boggles the mind. Even when filtered down to some of the major areas coming from the predictive linguistics, it all looks more like 'news stew' firing off for the month of December and balance of winter. While we won't be extending the 10/Codes/MIR system ("We have a 10-482, all units be on the lookout for the earthquakes from 32-36 degrees December 10-15th...") we will see if we can get set some reasonable expectations about what seems ready to jump us from the dark alley called December.

New economic numbers out today seem to clarify the longer term inflation picture...

I don't venture into the realm of 'self improvement' often - but every so often, seems like a good thing to do: examining how a you're doing and figuring out how to do things better. A sort of News Years resolution event, but without New Years and done when there's a long weekend, seems best. So this week I'll walk you through my "make yourself better" plan I've blocked time for over the T-Day weekend. It's a relatively 'high payoff' area compared to most types of investment out there lately. Especially when stacked up against the papery sort of those things that you can't take with you when the Grim Reaper drops by...

"I'd like tales of two half-lives and a side of scary conference, please." Might be a little more accurate way to describe this week's report. First up is an assessment of the G20 meeting and a report from an academic conference which doesn't bode well for the economy. Then we'll consider some of the implications of the possible recent passing of Peak Trade; our first 'half-life' topic. And then we'll wind up with a nice, simple explanation and spreadsheet to illustrate why the half-life of hedge funds is about 'x' years. Sleeves rolled up? Coffee strong? On your mark, get set....Click!

In just under a week's time, the 20 most powerful nations on earth are meeting to try and come up with something 'better' in the way of an international economic order than the current steamy lump of crap that seems to be doing its dead-level best to steal the retirement dreams of millions. Unfortunately, there's also suggestions/warnings that any 'fundamental rethinking of capitalism' is not on the agenda. That, as I see it, is a very, very wrong-headed approach because capitalism, as we've seen since summer - and will likely see through the balance of winter - will fail to save the globalist economy. But it doesn't have to be that way.

Most folks don't get a choice of what kind of life they're born into, perhaps because it's a choice made at a 'spirit level;' which is blanked at birth. But, whatever the reason, or however that process works, most regular humans don't get to make too many choices about their starting points in life. Like a cosmic golf game, you have to 'play it where it lands' for the most part. Although fables and stories about being 'rescued' from a poor opening shot are popular (such as the musical/play "Annie"), the odds of Daddy Warbucks really showing up - checkbook in hand to solve all your problems - are pretty close to zero. BUT, no matter what society you happen to land in, there will be some 'golf-like' decisions you will be able to make. One of these is to get the right answer to the question "Should I own or should I rent this thing or that. Unfortunately, the answer to this drifts around a fair bit, depending on the where and the when context. Nonetheless, we can extract some generalities decision-making by first figuring out who our "lifelords" are and acknowledging their deal terms...

With apologies to "Nightmare on Elm Street" author Wes Craven, we take up this weekend the really scary part of "Nightmare on Wall Street Part Two: The Paradigm Shift" written in what I hope will be seen in a somewhat humorous light, unless of course you're reading this week's report in your car parked outside a Starbucks to surf their wifi because you no longer have a home. In that case, you've already lived through "Nightmare on Wall Street Part One: Revenge of the Gambling Bankers." If you think back, you'll remember that Part One dealt with the awesome rise of debt-ridden riches, the infinitely inflatable 'service society' and how Part Two began on October 7th, concurrent with Iceland's economy going down, marking the more or less official start of Global Economic Collapse. Unfortunately, you ain't see nuthin yet because Part Two is just getting underway. The main plot element, and despite the bribes and prayers of the Fed and Treasury is what? The disappearance of money... and you thought Wes Craven was scary? I figure Craven or Stephen King would make a better Treasury Secretary - at least you'd know what to expect - a scary/bad/OMG ending.

This week's report started off to build the case for the rapid reindustrialization of America, but by the time the week was over, some research on declining West Coast containerized shipping traffic, reading the latest web bot run, and the generally abysmal performance of the stock market forced a mid-stream reexamination of the concept I was setting out to proposed, namely the 'reinventing of America'. Oh sure, it's still there, but it's the lower probability outcome when compared to either the new 'normal' (however you want to describe the creeping blend of socialism and fascism that's taking over the world) or the growing possibility that we'll reach what I refer to as a Tainter Tipping Point and from there descending directly into anarchy. While I desperately wanted to find a use case for the Micro-Factory/reinventing of America, an honest read of the tea leaves puts the odds at damn slim. Here's why...

Now that the "Greater Depression" may actually be at hand, you could be excused for wondering "Who is Thomas W. Lamont and why is George quoting a 1930 presentation he made on November 14, 1930 before the Academy of Political Science?" I think it's really important stuff right now. Here's a hint why - Time Magazine's cover for Nov. 11, 1929:

Now that we have arrived at the week which has been noted in the predictive linguistic work of www.halfpasthuman.com for a year (or arguably longer, if we count the 'death of the dollar' meme to play out in a November which could be this one), it's time to pencil out what the process of actually living through a "Greater Depression" as my friend Jas Jain calls this one, will be. I won't kid you - it's likely to be every bit as bad as the 1930's - or even worse - since this is a Grand Super Cycle event of a greater degree; than the last Depression - that 1930's event. As I wrote on Saturday on the free www.urbansurvival.com site, I expect that European bank failures may be the 'triggering event' and just like clockwork, the combination of our rickety time machine and some pretty good sources informed us within a few hours that there'd not only be "No banks bailout fund for Europe" but by Sunday morning we had our first report of a "German bank at risk of collapse". Like my friend "The Bond Dude" explained: This whole CDS market (all $55-60-trillion worth) is like a fence with 10-million links. It only takes one of them to break and things could cascade from there..."

Imagine for a moment that we're back in mid-summer of 1929 and we had foreknowledge of the Crash of 1929 and were tasked with giving people generally as much forewarning as possible in order that they might be able to prepare for it and help both themselves and fellow countrymen through it with the least amount of hassle/trouble/worry/stress possible, given the epic nature of the changes ahead. Oh, and just to make it a little more challenging, assume the words "Great Depression" had not been coined - as they hadn't. Our modern analog to this is the present day, a limited vocabulary (as labels come after the fact), we think we've got some insight into what's ahead, but the description is limited. There are a few words that have come through the predictive linguistics which can help one prepare for whatever-it-is coming. One of these is Diaspora - essentially the 'scattering of people to the winds' kind of thing. So as a planning construct, how would you plan for it?

This week's report will be covering a tremendous amount of ground - starting with a lay person's perspective of the Gini Coefficient which defines concentration of wealth, why payroll taxes are soaring and how the Republicorps has managed to spread its tax lies (hint: off balance sheet spending of $400/billion per year), which bank failed most recent, and which one we have our money on for the coming week. Going too fast here? Then we will explain how the truly rich avoid paying payroll taxes (it's really cute!) and then we'll roll out a workable solution to keeping the public from getting screwed in the evolving financial tsunami and last but not least, a word about why making sure your home is 'homesteaded' is so important. I recommend a stiff drink and an iron constitution before reading further. If this week's events haven't yet driven you to drink, wait till next month. I expect to make a little room for the Gini...and wait till you see our "Buy and AK-47 or solar panel?" poll results. Oh - and some notes on how "time" works. Yeah, that's more than enough to keep us busy in this week's report...no other honest reckoning of things is in sight yet.

Yes, there have been talks this weekend about a bailout plan for Lehman, but if this doesn't come to pass, and if the reports on energy production out of Texas in the wake of Hurricane Ike are dire, this could be the week that the markets break to new lows and sets up a test of the 9,700 level on the Dow which has been a major line in the sand from a technical standpoint. My countdown to a Friday October 3rd under 10,000 sets off a 'terror' or financial calamity is still on track. Now with all of this going on, does the thought of citizenship elsewhere sound appealing? Well, depends who you know, what your religion and ancestry is, but you may be a bit late as the lock down Americans in America (and this smacks of Germany in the late 1930's) is well underway.

Yes, there really is a proposed federal bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Unfortunately, as I'm about to show you, developments in the fixed income markets are already telegraphing that the bailout won't 'save the day' and that a substantial further decline of the Dow is almost certainly in the cards. Regrettably, we have arrived at a point in history where war of some magnitude becomes a 'management alternative' to dealing with the very real, and still growing, economic problems facing the West. To put it gently, the Country is nearly broke, we're about to become broker, and the fixed income markets are already signaling "Broken! Look out for Dow 4,280.98!" Should you be skeptical of such an assertion? You bet! So let's start with a steely-eyed assessment of the real-life Price to Earnings Ratio of the Dow Jones Industrials - something you won't find in the MSM with a microscope or fine tooth comb...for reasons that will become abundantly clear.

This is more like a fasten seat belts, return tray tables to their upright and locked position, and be out of paper three days ago note...

Some global conditions are appearing to soften quickly and a related technical note for subscribers is here:

Access Note: If you receive a 404 error or if a link doesn't work, please refresh your browser and empty all 'temp' files. Then try again. Apparently there is an issue with this week's report but if you refresh it goes away...thanks.

While most of the MainStreamMedia hypnotized public was feeding on the pabulum pushed out by the PowersThatBe-owned 'state media' there were numerous indications going on Sunday afternoon that news events were being pushed as much by the actual events surrounding Gustav, as the need for the PTB to keep things from falling part for two more weeks. Fortunately, having access to the predictive linguistics reports out of HalfPastHuman.com, I already expect relative order until September 15th because shortly thereafter, and centered around October 7th, we're due to start The Big Slide to Transformation which will happen between now and March of next year. Still, there was almost a sense of either panic, (Or, was it disbelief?) as my broker called to say "There's a special Sunday trading session in energy due to the hurricane..." I know, you're thinking to yourself, "hmmm...that's odd..." Yup, sure was...yet here's the story bigger than life. And close on the heels of the change in margin requirements installed Friday (oh, what a coincidence, eh?) With the Dollar on life support (and a hit of meth lately) it shouldn't come as a surprise.. My broker had never heard of a special Sunday session before, but then again, he's only been in the game 20-some years. But not to worry, seems we're not the only ones worried about the end of the month and then October 7th-ish events to follow.

While at first blush, you might think we're covering one topic in this week's report, there are actually two: The first being a sequence of events that might lead to Hillary getting the nod (or at least the Presidency) and separately, how crooked finance may be blowing up in slow motion while most of the world stands by in disbelief. Grab a fresh cup, this is going to be fun. Except for the part about the latest "after the close Friday"/ "bank Failure of the Week" but more on that after we see how Ms Clinton could get herself back into the White House....

While the strong hands (industry pros) have been busily selling their stock shares to the weak hands (the retail investors) as quick as they can (more in this week's ChartPack), I've become much less concerned with the day-to-day market moves, and much more worried about something that the HPH folks have had crop up in modelspace between now and perhaps year's end: rationing. This week, therefore, we'll outline a scenario which could lead to rationing, and then explore some of the ways rationing arises, operates, and is then ultimately resolved. Since we've always had a fair ration of foresight, we'll start by outlining a scenario that could lead to gas lines (and much worse) before St. Nick flies

This may be one of those Peoplenomics issues that I should really publish as a book, not just a weekly report. But, since so many readers have been writing in wondering how I did this, or that, I figured it would be a good thing to start from the grounding rod up and go through how to design a home power system that will give you maximum bang for the buck and take some of the fear our of the grid going down. Properly done, you should be able to take a 'system approach' to living and figure out a way to thrive while most other folks are whimpering and complaining about the loss of power.

Without giving away the store, there's a chance - albeit a small one - that millions of people could be forced into relocation from their present homes/residences by events expected this fall. Whether it's an attack on an American city, or a regional power outage which takes too long to recover from, or just economic callout resulting in a huge lack of jobs, thus sparking a 1930's style mass 'wandering', some thought might be given to how one would prepare for such an event. But the 'single design' bug out bag isn't adequate for the range of possibilities over the next year or two, so let's get to work designing a better approach. We might begin with a fresh look at terrorism...

I'm not going to beat around the bush on this: The numbers are horrific. But, step by step, I show you this week how I arrive at the most painful financial conclusion I've ever reached: If your 401(k) has retained even half its value by the end of this year, you will be doing very, very well, compared to most. If you're thinking "Gee, wonder if that means a Dow under 9,000?" You may be horrified how far under. Plus, a few more thoughts on PCP (personal contingency planning) for October.

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Just as pilots go through checklists (pre-flight, take-off, and landing), it's useful at times to step back a ways and survey all the major areas of life we can think of to see what can be improved upon. We'll organize it this way: Ure's 'seven major support systems of life [food, shelter, transportation, communication, energy, environment, and finance]. We'll do a quick scan of the headlines to get a sense of 'current status' of that life-supporting system, update the 3-month to 3-year outlook, and then list different ways of coping with the range of possible outcomes at a personal level. Along the way, we'll set some 'trigger levels' for further action as the likelihood of a particular outcome changes...

If you have a fair idea of how the rest of 2008 and early 2009 will work out, you may have already started working on your plans for how to cope with unemployment on a massive scale, $500 a barrel oil, and the arrival of shortages at virtually all levels in America between now and this time next year. In case you haven't and still have a job, I thought it would be useful to build you a "How to get fired kit" because either you - or someone near and dear to you - will likely need it. Along the way, a short libretto on how events seem likely to play out...

Money is in the midst of a huge decoupling from its traditional role as means of storing wealth. We've got several factors at play here which demand analysis. Among these we can count the declining underlying value model, where over time (and enough printing) money stores more 'interest' than 'value'. A second is that a transition from specie to paper and now digimoney is underway. And the third, and perhaps most important aspect is that 'money' as most folks think about it, is in the midst of decoupling from physical reality as the printing of paper assets may continue ad infinitum, while the available resources (oil, oxygen, and fish as examples) is not unlimited and is likely peaking, as anyone who likes Copper River Salmon will tell you. This week, a reexamination of the old problem "What is money, anyway?" and "Can we come up with something better?"

For a typical family that was able to save $150 a month on an after-tax household income of $3,600, an increase in the price of gasoline from $4.00 to $5.00 could result in them having to draw down $94.40 per month from savings, and further, with savings of just $6,500, this typical family would be out of savings in 68.9 months. How'd I figure that? Aha! This week I've written up a quick spreadsheet template so you can plug in your own household budget numbers and make an intelligent estimate of how long before you run out of savings if the price of gas goes up or down. Along with it I've included a super-short introduction to spreadsheets and design notes on how to tweak the model this way or that...

It happened again on Saturday night when I was chatting with a group of folks around the Southwest on ham radio. The future tapped me on the shoulder. One of the hams in the QSO (conversation) said that although he loved his older Porsche (928), it was getting to be a real pain to drive because it isn't easy on the gas. Now that gas is nearing $4 a gallon even here in the "Land of Oil Rigs" (Texas), this reminded me how things presently held in high regard for their "status" value may be changing in tradable ways over the coming few years. Not that the meek shall necessarily inherit the earth maybe, but at least if they drive a high mileage diesel Jetta with a 25-gallon tank, they might at least be able to raise a down payment in the future. Anyone want to sell a good Honda Insight which a CNN-Money page listed as turning in 60 MPG city and 66 MPG highway?

Although there's a good chance that the markets will continue the decline set up last Friday as the markets open on Monday, the drop even if a thousand points, would only be a 'drop in the bucket' compared to some of the longer-term counts in Elliott, some of the predictive linguistics work, and just common sense. The macro-problem is that somewhere between 2000 and 2015, a Grand Super Cycle top will be in. As that occurs, we won't be looking at a decline from 14,000 to 12,000 that became evident last week. Nope: it will be more like 14,000 to 2,000 to a Dow somewhere between 2,000 and zero. If there's a number I fear more than any other, it is a weekly close under 11,893.7. Let me show you why...

"Psst! Buddy...got a hot tip for yah on a stock that's going to the moon...." You probably get as many emailed 'tips' as I do - and some days it's dozens touting this stock or that. This week, we take on the task of trying to assess the various methods of predicting the future both of markets in general and particular securities and commodities by combining multiple inputs. On the way, some thoughts on graphically representing and weighting of the various (multiplexed) inputs, but first we begin by stepping back to understand the true purpose of market research. This is really part one of two because next week, we'll explore whether financial remote viewing, as yet another non-traditional method to intuit future market direction might be another avenue of study....

Not that I would ever expect someone like Warren Buffett to come out and say "Second Depression!" as I've been writing about for 10+ years as the inevitable outcome of consuming ore than we make and printing up phony financial instruments ala Ponzi to do it, but when someone of Buffett's standing "sees "long, deep" U.S. recession" ahead, then perhaps there's still enough lead time to actually get ready. So, if you're willing to ride out and meet Fate, it's time for some contingency planning for the aftermath of what may have been America's Golden Age.

It occurred to me recently that I’ve never seen a really good survey book covering all the ways that a motivated human could get rich in this world. If such a book or short survey existed, everyone ought to be interested in studying it. After all, who doesn’t want to be rich? So this weekend, let's see if we can't logically group the various routes to riches. Sure, I expect the dollar to crash this coming week (or at least resume it's downward dive) but that shouldn't stop the aware person from at least keeping an eye out for opportunity. Within every crisis there's usually a new way to get ahead of the pack by thinking in unconventional ways about conventional problems.

Next week, Peoplenomics will be into it's economic groove with a survey of ways to get rich in theses times. But what will life be like on the other side of an economic calamity? While we're waiting to find out this week's report is a short "quickie overview" of basic tools that may come to play an important role in your life, even if you never thought of yourself as "handy". Hard times might make being "handy" a very useful thing indeed, as the people in the Southeast found out this weekend as tornadoes came calling. Part of our 13 Acres and Independence project, a short chapter on the basics of how to make almost anything and under almost any conditions seems a useful thing indeed. If you were too busy learning computer science, accounting, or day trading skills to take the industrial arts courses (especially wood shop and metal shop), here's a 'quick start' I hope you'll never need...

This week I'm going to place a number of major "dots" before you, suggest a possible meaning of the dots -- namely that an extinction level event is pending in a couple of year -- and then propose that we all just go on as though everything is dandy and everything will work out right in the end because lining dots up in just a certain way is no guarantee that it's how the future will really work out when it gets here. Instead, it's only one wildly speculative version of how the future could work out. As the time monks are prone to reminding me "George, if you can imagine it, that about assures us that your particular version of the future won't show up." After a preview discussion of this week's content, they suggested I send out sample sized bottles of Imodium AD in advance for readers of weak constitution, but I'll leave such frivolities to Big Budget Newsletters, although a shot of Jack at the end of this report might be comforting. Forewarned is forearmed - so to the dots!

A number of conferences have been held recently dealing with the general topic of “mass customization”. The main thrust of mass customization is that because an ever-increasing portion of manufacturing is software-driven, intuitively it should be possible to easily customize virtually any product. However, in some ways mass customization is encountering the same kinds of obstacles to widespread adoption that hamstrung the infant videotext field when it arose as precursor of the Internet. Therefore, to help identify obstacles to widespread use of ‘mass customization’ it’s useful to review why videotext didn’t ‘catch fire’ while the internet did. We’ll also discover why the evolution of software-defined radios (SDR’s) may help business evolve into what I call SDMC’s – software defined manufacturing companies.

Two items on the agenda this week: First up is a lesson on how to gauge the winds of change blowing through the housing market and how to build your own local housing index to help you spot the bottom if you're looking to time buying of a house or picking up a rental unit or two. Then, a special report from a reader who's a retired nuclear industry emergency planner. He details a layered approach to personal emergency plans, based on high to low consequence triggers. Fresh coffee in hand?

I've been pondering the investment performance of a colleague the last week or two, and I've come up with an interesting - and perhaps useful - new way to look at investment decisions. Part of it comes from reading "Secrets of the Unified Field: The Philadelphia Experiment, the Nazi Bell, and the Discarded Theory." Not to worry, the report this week won't be getting into the woo-woo area of borderland science. But, the book does get me to thinking again about something most people give very little (if any) head space to; the concept of the phase relationship between their individual behaviors and overall group/societal level behaviors, and in particular that social oddity called "The Market". In short, a new way to look at your trading track record and one that I haven't seen discussed in any of the literature. I'll show you how learning to think of your trading in electrical engineering terms used in AC distribution systems may be a very good thing, indeed.

Lot's to cover this weekend: I'm going to show you the Elliott wave count that would put us in the 'fifth of the fifth" which could lead to a Fall in the Fall, and we're going to consider a batch of historical data to ask the question "How would you have played The Crash of 1929? - What would have tipped you off?" But before we get into hypothetical topics, let's start with a little chart work and I'll show you how I pencil in a Dow of 14,966 as one projected rally high for the summer....

One of the occasional criticisms leveled at my writings is that I don't spend enough time offering solutions to what are the obvious problems that face the world's humans today. This week's report will be very short and to the point with three major solutions being offered. The first action point is a response to numerous emails from readers who say "I'm poor - and I can't get to debt-free and a paid up place to live, because of my miserable circumstance." I explain how to team with other family members or families to set up a very robust self organizing collective (*SOC). The second sketches the outline of a global political party to counterbalance rampant global corporatism; a short discussion of why a global political party (GPP) might actually work. The third is a short discussion focuses on the question "What is money?" and how we store 'value'.

Before this weekend I was pretty confident that this weekend's "Camp In" preparedness test would find me totally ready. Yessir, I was set - or at least so I thought. It only took about 6-hours to arrive - somewhat humbled - at the realization that even though I've got some of the "big stuff" (food, gun, water, medicine, and the usual stuff you read about on the 'net), I've also got a huge 'punch list' of things to correct before I rerun the test in September, just before the linguistics tell us 'Beware October.' I think you'll find some of my 'blind spots' instructive, and they explain why I'm planning to make "camping in" a quarterly event around here...

A lot of non-subscribers ask me "George, how will I know if my family is really ready, and what will the problems coming be like?" While there's no way to know for sure what will happen in October (5th-8th) when we get another 9/11 sized or maybe larger, shift coming through lifespace, there is a simple way to find out how it will 'feel': Hold a personal disaster readiness test next Saturday. But, don't tell your friends - they'll think you're a survivalist nut. Instead, tell them you're trying "Camping In" - a 'don't-have-to-go-anywhere' version of 'camping out'. No camping gear to buy - just shut off your water, power, gas, and communications for 12-hours (or longer) and you're there. No camp site fees required.

Reader Notes: There will not be a daily update of the www.urbansurvival.com Saturday March 22. There won't be any power here at the ranch during the test. In order to make this as real as possible, it is suggested that subscribers don't even read the rest of this week's report until after stores have closed Friday night in order to get the most benefit from the test... I mean 'camping in' adventure.

This being Spring Break, let's postpone the actual developing, and building of your 'next life' farm/ranch/habitat/retreat/sanctuary to define the knowledge you'll need to make it really work, then plan to acquire the knowledge in the most cost-effective way possible. We'll tread on sacred ground again by discussing how Higher Ed often SELLS useless (or very low value) knowledge in return for mountains of student loan debt. But if you believe that a student loan will secure you're future, you could be DEAD wrong. We begin with the distinctions between schooling, knowledge and education, understanding the pricing models of each, and build a plan to have the right mix of knowledge for the future. No, it hasn't escaped our notice that the subprime meltdown has extended to student loans....

When the Depression Era classic "Five Acres and Independence" was written as many as half of the modern considerations in buying land hadn't been dreamt up yet. This week I'll run you through the basics of buying land in today's much more complicated times. Questions like the regulatory environment, modern utilities (like the internet) not to mention a development plan that avoids becoming embroiled in government power grabs such as the National Animal Identification Program ( NAIS ) deserve close study. Under the guise of "food surveillance" corpgov is inexorably pressuring out small land owners (whether by design or not) by ensuring through appointed 'courts' that the "voluntary programs" morph into mandatory when the public's attention is diverted this way or that by the Tweedle Dees and the Tweedle Dumbs on the campaign trail. I'll try to park my cynicism for a few minutes here while we objectively look at buying land.

I received an interesting email from a fellow who I'll call (*for labeling purposes only) 'Doc' which really deserves widespread discussion. What's ahead this fall came clearly and quite personally into focus as he read the latest Global/Europe Anticipation Bulletin with it's not-exactly-reassuring headline "Global Systemic Crisis /September 2008 - Phase of Collapse of US real Economy". It fits with the HalfPastHuman predictions a little to closely (October 5-8 timeframe for collapse) for his tastes. Don't worry, Doc, you're not crazy; the world is. But while your friends and colleagues enjoy life to come from de banks of de Nile, here's a simple plan to keep up appearances, make money and reap tax benefits, and yet still be ready for unanticipated consequences - like economic collapse. Sound too good to be true? Not only is it achievable, I have two friends who are very successfully operating exactly the business model I describe this week, and I'll explain how our little piece of the Texas Piney Woods will be developed in a similar mode...

We've lost track of the number of folks who have asked us to write up a short booklet on how to go about dropping out of the Big City - High Consumption Lifestyle, which we've managed to pretty much ditch over the past six years. So, this week I'm starting to write a short e-book (which as a subscriber to Peoplenomics, you'll be able to read here as bits and pieces of it come out. ) For those addicted to the rush of the markets (like me, for instance) this week's ChartPack (click here) will give you the economic overview and set out what I expect in the very near term. In a nutshell, while we seem due for a major increase in commodity prices (food and energy sectors) there continues to be an erosion of housing prices and what works out as illiquidity in the bond markets. This latter seems more because of fears over the fate of bond insurance companies, than a fear of default on underlying commitments, but the work-out is the same: Bond's that don't move.

Our discussion of matters economic is more to the point than usual because we all need to be watching the time dilation of the final two minutes of a football game later on this afternoon. But, before heading off to the kitchen for a few cold ones and nachos, a moment reflecting on the market being at what feels like an 'inflection point', may be worthy of deeper consideration than, say, adding up the weights of an offensive line, for example. Things are likely to become offensive in the markets this week, and instead of 52" of HD escapism, it could be your 401-K or retirement plan at risk. But I know how loud nachos can be calling on semi-holidays like this one. So let's quickly flip through some charts and some comments about the new oil bourse up this week and how it may be connected with "cable breaks" and then... well, throw some extra cheese on the nachos for me...

Since it's looking more like the US is in a recession - and things could really fall apart toward the end of the year (think Depression 2 ) I thought it would be useful to have a discussion about the nature of service economies, so-called higher education, and offer at least one innovative solution to the soaring cost of sheepskins. In order to understand the playing field, we'll start by differentiating what's currently available in the market: Accredited, state licensed, and unlicensed schools....then a surprising idea or two.

I'll let you in on a little secret: Elaine & I don't have a 401-K, we don't have an IRA, and we don't have any kind of retirement plan except for a few modest investments in land, precious metals, stores, and cash. So naturally, when people ask my advice about a 401-K, they look at me funny when I say "You have one of those?" Don't get me wrong, the theory of a 401-K sounds enticing enough. It's just that when you look at how the money supply is being debased, and the growing risk of being in any kind of financial abstraction, repositioning at least some of your 401-K money into something else might make sense. We start with some numbers from the Fed which almost no one talks about...

So many people wrote in over the past week, saying how much they enjoyed the 'mind map' approach to trading, that I decided to put up a little longer view of the map (what my tentative trading plan is through early fall. What I was going to write about -- redefinition of higher education to reflect economies of information delivery -- will have to wait until next week. You should be able to figure out without too much effort, that something's amiss when information is getting cheaper and higher ed keeps costing more, that there's a structural fly in the ointment somewhere; more on that next week, though. For now, let's focus on taking a few bucks from the corporate elite to fund our own personal (r)evolution with a trading mind map...

This week, I'm combining the ChartPack with the report because we might be approaching the leading edge of global economic collapse in the coming week. The charts below will illustrate some things you could consider because if they are anywhere near right, there are things you may still be able to do in order to avoid tremendous economic pain and suffering later on. We begin by putting some precise numbers for the key lines in the sand on the table:

"Jumping Jehoozeldorf! That's the answer!" Why my subconscious had decided to use a middle 1960's Seattle fire house slang adaptation of "Jumping Jehosephat" to advise me that 2008 was in need of a new word to adequately describe it, while I was happily in the midst of bush hogging a new goat field Friday afternoon, will remain one of life's mysteries. But, remembering that the chief guru of predictive linguistics and I both failed to nail down the word "terrorim" in advance of the huge linguistic tipping point seen in mid 2001 (getting aspects of military and accident however), I had been rolling around what modelspace was predicting for our immediate future now. Simply labeling 2008 as the "Year of Manifestation" following 2007, the "Year of Emergence"... was not was not cutting it. That the lexicon was pushing 200,000, plus thousands of non-English words, meant the word to describe 2008 likely not been overlooked this time. Perhaps 2008 needed was its own new word - one that didn't exist until it condensed as a thoughtform, a few words before Jehoozeldorf's oddly timed return.

This coming year promises to reveal some of the largest difference between humans ever. Not because of things like the onset of the Kondratieff Long Wave Winter in the macro economic world, but because we may get glimpses of how poor the upper middle class of well programmed humans can treat other humans, not as financially endowed. This week we will connect the dots between housing confrontations in New Orleans, the tent cities of Southern California, the years 1421 and 1491, and if that's not enough, we'll throw in the business model of the Catholic church along with moveable type, Martin Luther, UFO's and symbiotic networks. Sounds like a lot to bite off in a quick 15-minute read? Not hardly - in fact it's quite simple, really. It's "paradigms in collision."

Our annual report and outlook. Why I'm planning for 9% inflation in my own spending but reported deflation in 2008.

"George, could you comment on the manipulation of gold prices?" I can't count the number of readers who have asked me to answer that question, especially since the filing by GATA last week of a Freedom of Information Act to force disclosure of information about gold swaps. So, this week my simple mission is to answer definitely - or at least as best I can with available information at hand - is the price of gold being manipulated? We begin...

"I tell you George, it could work," the voice on the other end of the phone insisted. "There is just so much waste from running wars and the whole defense industry, that we could take all that wasted resource and create a 'professional leisure class' and have a much healthier world for it." This intriguing thought, offered by Dr. Ron Klatz, who heads up the American Association of Anti-Aging Medicine, deserves a little closer inspection. Also, a few notes about the future of mechanical trading systems. Shall we?

Financial Outlook by the People's Economist
of www.urbansurvival.com

The Peoplenomics^© Newsletter

Financial Outlook by the People's Economist of www.urbansurvival.com

The Peoplenomics© Newsletter

Financial Outlook by the People's Economist
of www.urbansurvival.com

The Peoplenomics^© Newsletter