Broken Web II: Digital Anarchy Arrives

As if this will take any of the readers of “Broken Web:  The coming collapse of the Internet” by surprise, the Sony hack has put a whole series of perspectives into place about what life will be like on the digital frontier from here forward.  We’ve got everything from “made up money” in the crypto currencies, to rips of books, and robots following close behind.

A primer on digital anarchy after our ChartPack, a review of the Trading Model, and a few significant headlines to light off Saturday…

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PCP: Penciling Crash Possibilities

img29Off into the intestines of Nikolai Kondratiev Wave theory this morning, as we attempt to make sense out of global markets in general and what may be coming for the USA market, in particular.

This is hardly a trivial pursuit because in case you haven’t noticed, the Dow Jones Industrials (which were showing hints of a small rally earlier this morning) are in a “great heap-o-crap” because the 200-day moving average is being quickly approached and a number of technical indicators are verging on collapse.

So the exercise of reviewing the literature (and a bunch of charts) in order to map out a rational trading response is a good thing and quite justifiable, give our believe that we may be  on the cusp of ending the false boom that was initiated in the wake of the Housing Collapse.

We will attack history, parallels, and most important – how to make a buck in declines – so have plenty of coffee at the ready and a spare roll of Charmin, too.  Because when it comes to crash possibilities things turn distinctly ugly in the next year or two.

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2015: Crash, Blow-Off, or Breakthrough?

Annual Forecast Issue:  Full-on Depression?  Runaway inflation?  Or will a breakthrough in a field like anti-gravity from all of that money being poured into CERN energize the world and will lead us to a group realization that much of what we’re doing (and doing to one-another) is just plain wrong and stupid?

We’re coming to an interesting junction as we peer into the future a few short weeks into 2015.  Rally or die week ahead for markets, too.

For as long as I’ve been writing about finance (30-years), planning a reasonable course in 2015 is probably the most difficult year on record.  The numbers about Fed money creation, the Federal Debt to the Penny – and where we are in the sunspot cycle do not lie, though,

But how much do we understand of that which we think we know?

Time for coffee and a few headlines about underlying assumptions, the Trading Model, and then a nervous look into some very odd trends.  Of the sort that can flip the world upside down in 2015.

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The Conundrum of Sports Economics

Times are changing for pro sports.  Not yet visible in the absurd level of marketing hype and product licensing of names, logos, and mascots, but changing they are. 

Issues like use of public bonding authority and new forms of personal extreme sports are one front, but so is the rising awareness of the long-term injury costs of sports at all levels.  This morning we examine some aspects of the playing field and come up with some interesting data about the high cost of sports at many levels and point to how things are changing as a social/sports pendulum begins to swing.

First, though, coffee, headlines, and charts…including how our trading model is doing.

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Super-Prepper Alert: Could the US Population Be Controlled?

Say, here’s a wild-eyed thing to consider if you’re a prepper:  Can the US Population be controlled?  Not that it’s impertinent, since we have had demonstrations in places like Ferguson and more recently, New York, Dallas, and elsewhere.

So to what degree can the civilian population be controlled?  It’s an important question to investors to keep up on, since how people feel has everything to do with who feels enough confidence in the future to put some money behind it in the way of investments.

Before we get into the details, though, our usual first stops will include a few news stories that being to sketch out something I’m calling the “Workberg”.  Remember, last time we stood on the bring of America The Titanic, we coined the word “Debtberg” which, as projected, rolled over and caused the Housing Bubble to collapse.

Now we have this Workberg in sight, just two points off the starboard bow, and we may not be able to put the helm over in time to stop it.  As we get closer, we will get back to our abandon ship exercises.  For this morning, there’s always time for more coffee and some sightings on the berg…

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Boats As Bug-Out Platforms

A reader request brings me back to one of my favorite pastimes of life:  Boating.  Specifically, he wondered, realizing that I lived on a 40-foot floating survival platform for more than a decade, what would I do in today’s world?  Which boat…details like that.

If I wasn’t 65?  Or, if I hadn’t built an ideal survival platform in the middle of the country which can be more self-sufficient than a boat?  These are incredibly complex discussions, but I want to share his question and show you some darn interesting things about boats and bug-out tools…many of which you may not know – even if you are a boat owner yourself.

But first the headlines and another peak at the blow-off top that’s ongoing here in the latter part of the Greater Depression’s replay of the Roaring Twenties.  We don’t have the flappers and prohibition, but lots of other social taboos of the more modern sort…it’s just the kind of thing we like to chew on around here… Once we work the Trading Model and figure out where meals are coming from…along with the morning coffee…

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The Great American Crime Business

This being primo shopping time, we will keep today’s report short, sweet (or semi-sweet, as the case may be) and to the point.

A number of readers have expressed concern with my outlook on civil disorder, particularly when I referred to the “business” of it in Friday’s UrbanSurvival report.

So this morning a reality check:  What would the American economy look like without corrections corporations, lawyers police cars, prisons, deportations, TSA, criminal drug families, rehabs and all the rest of how we “Monetize Crime” and turn it into one of America’s most important economic sectors.

But first, we look at the Trading Model and our unique way of doing charts that spreads different sort of light of what’s be happ’nin now.  At least until the stores open…

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Has George Jetson’s Space Car Been Stolen?

A reader of ours, and a viewer of the old Jetsons cartoon series from the 1960’s, has been wondering just how we’re doing on the road to the high tech future of George Jetson, his wife Jane and their two teenage kids fly around in space cars.  America is short of dreams right now, so sure, let’s look into the future of personal flight…

Since this is not a real serious market day, and neither is Friday, we’re going to “lighten up” a bit and do a little comparing of the regulated, engineered, computed future versus the cartoon image of what the future oughta be like.  We’ll skip over parts you already know – like the World’s Fair idea that atomic power would make electricity “too cheap to measure.”  We know how that one worked out.

Before the fun, though, a few headlines and our Trading Model.  Money never takes a holiday, except as a hostage, perhaps. 

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Is There an “Invention Horizon?”

Double-up on the coffee ration this morning:  There is so much going on in finance that it takes in excess of 4,600 words to “cover the waterfront” this morning.  The deep thinking is caused by an analysis of why the market failed to break to the downside on or before our November 10 target date. 

This morning we follow a circuitous trail that leads from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency’s latest report to the changes at what used to be the Treasury’s Bureau of the Public Debt  (Yes, America is bankrupt by the way and we haven’t fixed the problems of the 2008 crisis, but we’ll get into that, too) and from there we consider two business models either one of which could decide whether we head into two more years of inflation and pseudo-growth, or whether the new savior of retail (subscriptions) will drive us to the deflationary side.

And all this fell out or research when we started off looking for a simple “best play” in robotics.  Of my….

So it’s quite a wide-ranging discussion, but it does tell us where to watch Global Kabuki as even small weights on the balancing scale of “future” could tip things one way or t’other. 

Like I said: Extra coffee for this one.

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The Soft War for World Leadership

This morning we look at the “soft war” for control of the world.  We review a multiplicity of organizations that are in the running for the honor of becoming the global tax collectors, from the UN on down.  And we review how Germany was strong-armed out of demanding its gold (allegedly) on deposit at the NY Fed.  We then consider a Swiss vote on gold backing for the franc that could cause turmoil in global financial markets next month.

But on nippy mornings like this, no point is going to work without coffee, headlines, and our Trading Model.  We encourage an early start today, so you’ll have time to digest the Fed Meeting minutes after lunch.

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Is the Next Collapse Underway?

Three items for breakfast this weekend.  In our first serious Focus piece, we look at dynamics of oil pricing.  And how what goes on in oil could be setting up the Global Financial Collapse. Secondly, we look at timing the problem of the Global Depression. The third item involves the little matter of how to maintain the integrity of a system that seems to accurately forecast the future, as we discussed in the Friday column.

First. however, there’s the matter of news and charts – and many cups of hot steamy liquids to ward off the effects of pernicious “global warming.”

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"What’s Left to Steal?"

We consider the next moves for the leadership of our fictional Directorate 153 going forward.  We periodically look at a fictional extra-government unit that really pulls the strings in global affairs.  Not that it’s real, of course, but when we look at what goes on in the world, we can see what seems at times so much like an “invisible hand” that we have to consider the existence of such a group as a real possibility.

When we do, some interesting insights appear.  Particularly when there has been recent talk of the Berlin Wall anniversary and such.  Think of it as the “How we get bent-over next” search.

First, though,  coffee and headlines plus our trading model.  Oh, and do we thank climate change for this morning’s iced coffee?

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An Amazing New Book & The Slow Death of "Prepping"

I’ve got good news for you and I have bad news for you.

The good news?  We may see the slow end of Prepping (at least for a while) because of a curious twistization *(to make up a word) of economic history.  I’ll explain in a moment.

BookCoverThumbnailThe bad news?

My friend Howard Hill’s new book has been released.  And we’ve got permission to share a transcript in which he makes a startling prediction:  Another global financial crisis is coming.  Time to rethink Dodd-Frank.

If these two items aren’t enough to get your attention, along with Russian tanks moving into Ukraine according to reports, along with another bank failure, you might skip Peoplenomics this morning and rush to the obituary section of the local newspaper.

You’ll want to see if you’re listed.  If not, check your pulse.

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