Demographica: Say "Hi!" to Negative Growth Rates

We’ll get to the overnight episode of “5,500 Cruise Ship Roulette” in a minute.  But today is also time to update the mass invasion of the US through the former Mexico border.  And regrettably, the latest statistics back up our earlier contention that the great “Dirty Secret” the Washington Cartel is hiding from voters until after elections and the Executive Reconquista to follow, is that without mass immigration, our economy is going to implode.  Seriously.  Ka-Boom!  Blooey!

But before we get to that, our usual weekend smorgasbord of the  headlines du jour and the enchanting story of “Lazarus, the Options Worker” who made an appearance (guess where?) on Wall Street this week.  So on Dancer, on Prancer and Vixen. You, too, Dolly…Where’s my coffee?  And don’t wake Elaine up.  Have you seen the sugar-plum index?

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Hiding Reality: With Real Numbers

The market is not acting worth a damn this week.  We really ought to be putting in a much stronger rally given that we’re in an options expiration week and also seeing a supposed “recover”  the leading role in which is being played by the Invisible Man.

What’s killing us (a poor choice of words) is Ebola case #3 in Dallas, deflation, and did I mention retail sales?

Light off some coffee…much to cover in this morning’s unvarnished view of Hard Reality Coming for Your Ass and will Take Your Savings if you Blink.

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Mr. Cheerful’s End of All Economic Growth

You know?  I really should stop looking at the “crap-coming-at-us” list between now and 2025 because – sorry to say – I don’t see a happy ending.

Not that we can’t “get happy” for however long a good hit lasts, or the effects of whatever you poison your liver with.  Those things will always be around.

But what’s missing is economic growth of the organic kind.  And since that’s heading for the exits almost every turn, it’s time to do some real straight-thinking about supply, demand, shortage of resource, longage of humans, and where we fit into the mix as things head for “10-years in the blender.

And toward what end?  To redefine what (and maybe IF) we can do anything about it.  Prepping, as you’ll read in this morning’s report, misses much of the point.

Which we’ll get to after coffee and the all-important Trading Model update.

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Ebolanomics: The Passing of the Growth Paradigm

It would be deliciously simple if I could tell you “OK, that’s IT.  Growth is going away and it will mean worse-than-Depression unemployment is a certainty by 2025.  So make your amends with Universe, the SHTF is going to be a slow motion ending orchestrated by Ebola.”

But it’s not that simple.  (What can’t anything be simple and direct, anymore?)

Still, we’ll take a crack at it – using some very revealing research done years ago by the Federal Reserve – on what a post pandemic world might look like.  If China, Peak Energy, Warburg, Taxes, Robotics, and all the rest of it doesn’t get us first, pandemic economics is worth a look.

The only reassuring part of this morning’s report is we can still get a decent cup of coffee and this is real-life economic, not just some wild-eyed “doom porn” about the world sinking in Atlantis-like fashion or being blown to smithereens by the Long Valley Caldera.  Reality, I hate to mention, could be a whole lot worse…

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Ebola "Prepperdemic" – Staying Ahead of the Curve

We’re not big on spending money foolishly, but the net is afire with crazy talk about Ebola, risks, and what people are planning to actually do about it.

Therefore, this morning we will go through the basic systems of Life (all seven of them) and work though a common-sense prepping plan – one that we put into operation on Wednesday when the word of the confirmed case in Dallas was making the rounds.

What we’ll focus on today is the concept of “dual use.”  In other words, what are the disease isolation tools that you will have use for no matter what and what future purchases that you’ll need in the coming year, or two, can be moved up to present day purchases?

Along the way, we’ll hear from “warhammer” – who long-time readers will remember is a real (legit) war-gamer whose bailiwick includes the B of NBC warfare.

That and the latest from our Trading Model following yesterday’s market action and a few other notes, promises to make this morning’s report a “two or three-cupper.”   Well over 6,000 words, this morning’s report is about prepping for a truly novel situation.

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Texas Ebola & the Threat Board: A through K

Now we know what “the Dallas Meme” that’s been rising in our futuring work was all about, don’t we?

We don’t make many predictions around here but when we do, it may be a good idea to take them seriously.  On August 29th, for example, we discussed the “Dallas Meme” as it related to terror.  This morning we are looking at the first “wild” Ebola case being treated in a Dallas hospital and if that isn’t “terrifying,”  I don’t know what is. 

Moreover, in the August 26 discussion of “Frontiers of Futuring, the Dallas Hit” we covered the www.nationaldreamcenter.com predictive headline that forecast an event:

“Chaos ensues in Dallas in wake of …Bomb threat at Dallas/Ft Worth Interntl Airport.”

We got the right city – and the air travel link, OK…but it’s here that we come back to an old problem of futuring:  We can exact some aspects of the Future, but many specifics get swamped by current contexts.  In other words, language at the archetypical level is ambiguous and provides for multiple futures until that last quantum instant before realization.

But before we get into the guts of this morning’s report, a couple of hearty congratulatory “Atta Boys to our colleagues Chris McCleary of the National Dream Center and to chief programmer Grady of our www.nostracodeus.com project for getting the location and aspects of Dallas right. 

We seen plenty of historical examples of how when government says “Don’t worry!” it’s exactly the right time to worry and to begin prepping for contingencies should government’s best laid plans fail to work out as promised.  Future history will disclose if that’s the case again….

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The Coming “Information Comprehension” Industry

Over the past month, we’ve been talking a lot about the “Computational Bolsheviks” who are threatening to overwhelm a hundred-fifty years of management science by short-cutting outcomes (like Business Process Re-Engineering on steroids) as well as by removing or redefining such traditional management concepts as span of control.

As someone who looks to the future much of the time, we can project the arrival of the “comprehension industry” as similar to other macro-trends in play now.  Some of these include climate shift (which it is doing all the time anyway…), the coming protein shortage (and cost increases) that we covered a half-dozen years back (see the archives), as Peak Oil/Peak Energy which will come along about the time of Peak Population…challenging problems all for the long-term investor.

But the “comprehension industry” will increase human potential (so we can keep up with our robots and AI, so we’ll delve into its make-up right after coffee, a few outlook oriented headlines, and a check on how our Trading Model is doing after its impressive performance this week that kept us from an outright short.

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Collapse Play-By-Play: Trading on the Knife’s Edge

(Amarillo, TX)  We dispense with the usual Focus piece this morning to zoom in on our core-value:  Making and keeping your hard-earned money. 

There are multiple reasons for concern about market today and through Friday: everything from a terrorism strike to disease making it out of Africa, to things going badly in Iraq.  But the one that is the highest probability (for the moment) is of a major market downturn.  Signs and portents are mounting, so how do we play it?

After the short look at headlines, we review what our trading model and workflow approach then explore the options before us in terms any seasoned gambler can understand.

The River Card is about to be turned.

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The Computational Bolsheviks

(Reno, NV)  Peoplenomics reports are always a joy to write – and unlike the UrbanSurvival columns, they have a serious-as-a-heart-attack angle to them because it’s where we get to nail down key aspects of the future and work out strategies for dealing with it.  This morning we put down four “corner posts”  that define our future.

This morning we offers two key insights:  One is a further discussion of Peak Oil, which as I’ve hinted in previous columns, and what’s really going on when you lift the covers of Ukraine, Syria, ISIS, Africa, and many other “hot spots” around the world.  If you remember our “thinking-framework” of the Manufacturer’s Resource Wars, there’s much to be relearned and  applied to this moment.

Beyond that, we assess the new revolution by the programmers from the 99% who are in the process of overturning the One Percent in a gloriously subtle way…and a way that will lead us in future weeks to redefine some investment criteria for stock screens and other investment vehicles.  Oh – and my buddy Rick Ackerman (of www.rickspicks.com ) lays out where gold could be going.  (If you’re not a subscriber, it’s similar to Robin Landry’s worst case, which is none too reassuring.  When smart guys with differing background begin to line up…)

So sit back, load the bean, and we’ll launch into “What It All Means...” written (somewhat appropriately) in our overnight suite upstairs from a Reno casino; where unlike markets or Washington pronouncements, we can at least see honest odds being posted.

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Horsemen and Kindling Effects

(Gig Harbor, WA)  Say, not to be sounding like one of those doom-porn types, but some very serious thoughts this morning on how recent history and current events are shaping up need to be covered.

This won’t be a particularly long report.  Just important.

So we dispense with some of our usual flowery language and weak puns to get right to the heart of things after headlines and our Trading Model with charts…  Leading off with Fed Spotting (rate announcement due today) and Consumer Prices…

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A Course in Relative Values

(Gig Harbor, WA)  One of the biggest “prepping problems” is what threat to prep for.  While there are no hard and fast rules, there is something to be learned from a study of relative values.  With this in mind, a long ramble this morning into the mindset that works.

We also look at the spread of Ebola and what that might do…a major killing time, but slow arriving and thus, plenty of time to prep for what could be “national days in” that could be coming worldwide if the worst fears of epidemiologists materialize.

All of which requires plenty of coffee and is best taken on the deck with the sun of late summer to ward of the chills of what’s to come.  Markets are often driven by internals, but every so often exogenous events come along that “blow over” the status quo.  The period from this fall to next summer may be a period when externalities may again remind us that while Quants can rule the milliseconds, Ma Nature rules the days…

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Prepping for Retirement

(Gig Harbor, WA)  This morning we peel back the covers on one of our “secret missions” up here in the Northwest:  We’re trying to sort out whether to move back to this region to be closer to the kids, or just stay put in Texas and send the kids holiday airplane tickets. 

The Obama administration is driving some of this as they sit in waiting until after the elections with their potential November surprise on illegal immigration.  Transparent?  Forthright?  Yeah, right.  Just campaign BS sold to the sheep.  Save the heavy stuff till it’s too late to change your mind.  More practically? We eye the 357-mile distant border with Mexico with increasing suspicion because yes, we do Remember the Alamo and we do read terrorism alerts.

Given the complexity of modern life and the investment we have made in prepping it would be difficult if not impossible to duplicate what we have in the Texas Outback.  But now we’re putting numbers to it as we set about to size up terrorist rings, heart strings and purse strings in this morning’s discussion.  How to scale bug-in versus bug-out.

After coffee and headlines…and how about an Apple?

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