Standing by the the Fed Decision

With eye surgery tomorrow, wearing a baseball cap to control light, squinting a bunch and instilling eye drops prior to surgery, we are sticking with our core this morning:  Long wave prospects for the economy and our personal incomes.

Years back, we evolved a strange view of fractured markets that comes down to this simple idea:  While investing in the Dow might have made sense in a time when there were arguably only about 100 big companies in America that made sense and could be averages, in modern times – and with thousands of companies in each of dozens of countries, average analysts can be led woefully astray by single market myopia. 

With the Fed decision due out this afternoon, we will focus a bit this morning on the Personality of various market stages and ask aloud where we might be now.

After a headline or two, of course.  Starting with where the “ayes” had it in sillytics.

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Are Fed Decisions “Tradable Events?”

It may seem like questing after a unicorn, but then again, that’s what a lot of investment research is:  Going through the trash (mountains of data) and thinking the Hope Diamond might be in there somewhere.

But that’s how we roll around here:  While the longer views of history can be pretty good with enough diligence, so can taking the opposite tack – Superficial and Big Picture matter, too.  Looking through the repeating events for signs of something useful to bet on….er….invest in…it all kinds of fun.

The only difference between a compulsive gambler and a leverage-oriented investor is what, exactly? Difference in casinos, maybe?

At any rate, Ures truly sifts a mountain of data and comes up with a gem…if it works out…but first some headlines to rattle us back to consciousness.

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The Time Dimension of Investing

We have good news and bad this morning.

I went off looking at data on the time scales of investing and instead came to a whole different result.  It was an unexpected observation.

Specifically I found what may be a “hostage moment “to come when the Greater Depression (be patient, soon come, compound interest guarantees it!) shows up.

When the D2 gets here, this “hostage moment” could be used by the Global Caliphate to literally “flip the West” in ways we couldn’t even begin to imagine.

Until the coffee hit this morning.

And from there we get into the interesting observation.

First, however, headlines and a bagel.

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D-Week for Markets Ahead: Forest or Trees?

After a most interesting week of vision problems – which I won’t waste you time with, except to say that Peoplenomics will not be deterred easily and things are in “critical mode” right now – what we have this weekend is about as close to a “fork in the road” for markts as you’ll find.

Rather than get into an overly long discussion of some esoteric points of history, we will simply look at the market and see what is there to be seen – because when Fed decision time comes up this week, we could see a violent melt – either up, or down – depending on how the Fed makes the interest rate call.

A few headlines, but then into the thick of it, starting with “The Forest and the Trees Problem” that faces everyone when it comes to making investment decisions.

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A Course in Moneymaking: Can "Good Investing" Be Taught?

This morning we explore an outline of how I’ve come up with a trading approach that I am willing to commit some real money to. 

Not that I expect to become overnight “rich” by doing so, but after almost 50-years of interviewing financial experts and a ton of personal learning, I’ve come to the conclusion that making money in the markets is not really all that tough.

What IS tough is the personality aspect of investing.

So this morning we begin with what could easily turn into a book-length discussion because I want to try and pull together a lot of different investment concepts into some kind of “whole cloth” that will make sense both to the professional investor, as well as the person who doesn’t have the 50-years it has taken me to gather all this.

In the end,  we find some “rules of money” and about “rules of investment” and basics of several kinds of “technical analysis.”  But the toughest enemy of all in life – and investing – is ourselves.

After some headlines and coffee, and the ChartPack, of course, I’ll tell you what my personal Book of Truth is all about….

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Investing–With IRS???

OK, what does a sailing story, negative interest rates on the horizon, and how to save money for quarterly IRS payments have in common?

By the end of this morning’s report, you’ll know the answer and an interesting outlook.

That is after our ChartPack and a look at the latest solar cycle predictions, which make it appear as though Ma Nature could hand the climate change promoters some difficult weather to deal with.

As we’re fond of mentioning, the MSM has never been a herd to let the facts stand in the way of a good story.

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Why are [important] People “Looking Up?”

For a second time in less than six months, one of our sources is talking about looking to developments in deep space.

As you will recall, a special Halloween edition of Peoplenomics pointed out that the most celebrated holiday in the world is that — Halloween.

We also went into the reasons – including events of approximately 15,380 years ago.

Now (and this is something of an I-Ching inbox moment, another well-placed source has noticed something, well, not outright ODD per se, but sure at heck worthy of our attention.

No, this is not a Planet X report, but it does have our deep space antennae up.

Also this morning, I unveil a new crack-pot theory.  Shakespeare may have been a time traveler.

I’ll explain the rationale behind that one, too.

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The Coming War in Korea

With the coming market decision whether to rally on and confirm Wave 5 up, or do a vicious decline to finish IV down around the 1,740 S&P level, we see how “neoconic forces” have been hard at work setting up another war.  This time by starving our North Korea.

That in itself wouldn’t be so bad, if only the Obama administration has not placed increased social spending and embracing “The Immigration Stimulus” at a higher priority level than maintaining military strength and keeping borders around the Homeland.  Oh well, I quit politics this week.

Still, the facts do support an elevated risk of war in Korea over the next several months and again, inter-administration political operatives at the State Department seem to have their eyes set on the failed “regime change” concept which has spectacularly failed elsewhere.

So hang on for the ultimate economic stimulus for markets – war mongering – as the legacy of this administration is failing at most other levels… 

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Regional Entrainment in Global Markets?

This is a really odd report this morning on several fronts.

First is we went looking for entrainment in global markets.  And then (257,000 data points later and an equal number of calculations later (and not counting 17,200 data points in two intense charts) we come to a surprising observation.

But we’ll get to Mr. Ure’s latest tinkering with Big Data after we roll through some hot headlines and a very interesting Janet-driven rally in the market.

How about we start off with something light and cheerful?  Like being Death Merchants to the World, for example.

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2DH: Environmental Aspects of the 2nd Depression

imageWe continue this weekend with our ultra long-range planning (The Second Depression Handbook -2DH) for the next Big Leg Down which will likely mark the Second Depression. 

This is when pension plans will blow up, when people will lose their so-called “entitlements” and when the rich will be leaving quickly for other parts of the world and leaving the remnants of a working class in America which they plan to exploit from afar via foreign-domiciles corporations.  (Cheery stuff for an Easter weekend, is it not?)

Unfortunately, when we talk about the Second Depression it is likely to be a great time of human suffering in general.  You’ll remember from our earlier discussions, there was almost universal hunger in the previous depression.  But in this one coming up, we will likely add things like continued nuclear pollution  because costs of clean-up will be larger than available funds. 

The same with other aspects of our “living environment” as well.

We run through some of these concepts today and start laying in plans for what to actually DO about things while we are still in the Good Times that within a few short years will likely become “The Good Old Days.”  Like the Roaring Twenties, but with bandwidth.

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The Junior Economist Merit Badge

This morning we have two major items on the plate.  First up is a look at our Trading Model and an armload of charts so you can see where we are in the great unfolding of events. 

The second part of this morning’s report is a steely-eyed look at a bunch of data and what it could mean for markets.

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Directorate 153: When to Brief Trump?

imageA HUGE report this morning that may take a minute to load, if your broadband is slow.  That is what 14 charts and graphics plus 7,000 words will do to things.

Our “First Things” section this morning considers where gold is now – and may go in the future.  We will also see how another US un-civil war might be in the timing cards for this long wave cycle. 

The “Chart Pack” is full of dreamy results – since what we have been predicting and expecting seems to be coming to pass right (more of less) on schedule.

And then we move into the purely hypothetical Directorate 153 – our thinking tool & concept modeler which allows us to tinker with various possible futures. In this week’s report, the Directorate (which is of course fictional) is seen trying to figure out when (and how) to advise Donald Trump.  The framework answers many “mysteries” behind the oddly evolving headlines and the current “pile-on Trump” phenomena.

At the core on the modeling construct is the surprising degree to which the US government is likely run at a policy level by a computational modeling outfit that is designed to ensure that  USA continuity – into the longer-term future.

In other words, the presence of early A.I. implementation as a policy-directing methodology could explain why there has been so little functional policy differentiation at the macro level between the Bush and Obama administrations.

So warm it up and let’s roll… 

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Workweek Woes

imageEver wonder where your prosperity went?  Me too!

Ever wonder about productivity figures?

Wonder why you have to work 70+ per week (and so does your spouse)?

You, bunkie, have what we call around here “the workweek woes.”

And this morning, we’re going to talk about that…

After we look at the consumer price data just out and “The Russians are Leaving!  The Russians are Leaving!”  Which, in case you are still wrapped in swaddling clothes and laying in a Honda, was an adult reference to a movie you maybe never saw...

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