The Role of Intuition in Stock Selection

imageEver have a hunch about an investment? 

Ever get a “vibe” off something when you so much as look at something?

Well, that’s our slightly off the deep-end report this morning. 

Although, as usual, we will be nose to the grindstone and present our typical collection of charts (11 in all this morning) as we also ponder the extremely important question:  Is the bottom in?

Bean-up and let’s roll.

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Peoplenomics: Second Depression Handbook (Ch. 3)

In this morning’s epistle, we come to the problem of where do you want to live when TSHTF.

It is not so apparent as you might believe.  For one thing, there are a ton of economic decisions to be made.  And, do you really want to live in an apartment should civil unrest follow mass layoffs?  Remember, in the last Depression there was some social unrest.

It will likely be a lot faster and more violent that the Bonus March, or any of the alternative government demonstrations that went on back when.  Remember, all the discussion back then came against a backdrop of a factory system and there were unions in ascendancy.  Today we have far less in the way of social check valves (which unions and a more puritanical life) fostered.  That “All American’s first” has been replaced with the “One for me and all for Me” kind of philosophy.

First though, a look at the charts and then we will lay out this housing problem in “Where to call home?” When TSHTF.

Sure, a NH note, too, but that you can get anywhere…but we will look at Janet Yellen’s forthcoming remarks.

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Peoplenomics:The Second Depression Handbook (2)

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This morning we do a second chapter of our Second Depression Handbook as we look at a very important link that all major depressions seem to hold in common.

Along with that, we’ll have a few remarks on other items, including our earthquake discussion on “earthquake tired” from the UrbanSurvival column of Friday which – as a whole bunch of readers have noted, nailed the 6.4 in Taiwan.

But above all, we will look at the issues in the charts as next week shapes up to be a kind of “last chance” in our Aggregated Indexes work.

Load up on some extra coffee…there’s much thinking to be done…

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Brainwork While Waiting for Markets to Decide

Today, we stay right on our major task around here:  Navigating the financial minefield that becomes apparent when we are, as now, flirting with “disaster in the charts.”

Which means what?

Well, a simple discussion of charts this morning, plus a couple of technical indicators and our own Aggregate Index work (which a few people still don’t understand) as we await what will likely be a key driver this week:  Employment data which began flowing this morning…

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The Peoplenomics Second Depression Handbook (i)

imageWe are off on another book-writing adventure. 

This time, we will pull together and synthesize from of our earlier Peoplenomics reports, a bit of economic theory, and even a fair bit of look-ahead material which we use to divine trends in their infancy where they can be utilized to personal advantage.

Regardless of whether our expected fifth wave up occurs, it is now time to begin looking in earnest at the daunting project of collecting several tons of material and putting it into lay form so that people not versed in economics, trading, or investment in general, will be able to make sense out of what is coming down the pipe.

As we will explore in a potential opening chapter today (“A Matter of Perspectives“) one of the key difficulties is that really comprehending the nature of cataclysmic change is how you choose to consider the problem.

Hence, after our charts and a few news observations about a pretty boring week, we will offer some “perspective on perspective” as a reasonable starting vantage point from which to look ahead to what’s coming down the road.

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Seven for Success

imageWhile we are watching the markets slog it out this week – all to move but a few points from last Friday’s close in our Aggregate Index view of things – I wanted to pass along some ideas that will be useful regardless of Age.

I’ve been thinking a lot about this topic lately because periodic “life reviews” are a good thing. 
What I found was a collection of seven skills which can be brought out an applied just as you’d employ a business process to roll out a new ERP platform.
So after the charts this morning, a review of these seven critical skills that differentiate humans from robots.

And the weird thing? They all begin with the letter “R.”  Go figure.

First up, though:  Native warnings, Trump threatens, and the Bundy stand-off ends badly….

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Another Visit to the Threat Board

imageA while back  (April 2015, Peoplenomics 708-A “Should you build a Home Intelligence Platform?“) we discussed the value of using readily available web-based tools to help you spot trends.
We are paying a lot of attention lately to the word “trend” for another reason:  We’re writing a book on our word-frequency approach to Big Data and how it can be used to improve expectation confidence in coming events.
Admittedly, the process is like standing in the center lane of a busy freeway and listening to distinguish the sound of an approaching Kenworth W900 in your lane versus a T-660 in the outside lane…..
Don’t worry if that sounds a bit challenging at this hour…we’ll tear it down to coffee-sized bits.  But the main thing is we will be looking in on the Global Threat Board because it’s time to do that again.  If the concept isn’t familiar, you can find it in the January 17, 2015 Peoplenomics #697-B over here.
We’ll skip the old trucker joke about how “Ma wants Pa to get a new Peterbuilt…” and move on to the blizzard of data to dig out from under.

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Second Depression Playbook: You Need a "1740 Plan" Right Now

imageThere are times in Life when doing the easy thing and doing the “hard thing” are in sharp contrast.
Most people are “average” because they behave in “average ways” and don’t anticipate properly. 

On the other hand, the “above average person” does anticipate and observes threshold levels that dictate action. 

This morning we will cover why the S&P 1,740 level is critical and why you need a fairly robust plan of action if you’re going to preserve capital and be in a position to prosper while others try to simply “muddle through.”

But first, off to the breaking news on consumer prices…

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If the Stock Market Were Football…

imageDon’t kid yourself:  The Global Financial Markets on Friday were on the brink of collapse. But, if this were football, the ball would be first and goal on the one-yard line. This morning we roll out the two play books which will be deciding next week.

One is the Bull playbook.    It allows for the Bears to advance the football, right down to the goal.  But we are going to see flags flying on that play. 

That will leave the Bears with fourth and inches – and the Bears blow the point-after – and the Big Depression doesn’t start now.  We get the new highs by May that I have been talking about.
But Football and Life are never simple. 

So we need to peak inside the Bear’s playbook and model out how bad things could be if this is the Gates of Hell about to open.

The next couple of weeks are guaranteed to go into the financial record books, either way.

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The Bankster’s Plan to “Correct the Value of Cash”

imageAre you ready for “Variable Value Cash?”

Bad idea?  NSS!

An incredibly interesting report this morning because it is a topic that we first covered in 2001 – before 9/11.  It was theory then, but a retool version is making the rounds now.

This was back before we got around to naming our introspective reports Peoplenomics.  In the earliest days, still living on our sailboat, it was the UrbanSurvival Inside Report series.  It was still $40-bucks and one of the best deals in keeping ahead-of-the-curve, even then.

But the content was the same as now philosophically.  It was a look-ahead tool so we could all assess, model, and then live best with whatever came along  in the way of financial schemes.

One of the ideas we explored  back in 2001 was the whole notion of “re-charging money.”  And it seems that a variation of that is now making the rounds in the central banker circles.
When things like this come along, it is sometimes shocking what the implications are.  Not the least of which is being 15-YEARS ahead of acceptable economic thought..

But here’s the IMF and here’s this paper on Variable Value Cash.  When the SHTF, what do the bankers want?  Ever more power to diddle with the system!  Grab the Astoglide and read on…

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The NINE Horsemen of 2017

imageA longish report this morning.

And update on our Trading Model.

A number of possible resolutions to the present decline.

And a discussion of how 2017 is when we will have to work out how our financial world must face up to the problem of “Lifetimes piling up.”

Along the way, we’ll sort out whether the Talking Heads are right to be worried.  Or maybe we really are in Dire Straits.

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Some “Good News:” About Doomporn

imageIt is an odd topic to be on this morning, after being a guest on a highly regarded national radio show (Coast2Coast with George Noory) last night. 

Especially on a morning when speculation over whether the NK nuke test fired the Hydrogen “bigger bomb” material.

While the show always has an interesting assortment of people on, few bring their comments from previous years with them.  I happen to be an exception, I suppose.

But my optimism about 2016 could quickly fade late this year, or early in 2017.  So this morning a kind of summary of where we are in the rhymes of history and how you may wish to prepare for what comes next.

The two questions in the headlines today involve nukes and jobs…we’ll start with the North Korean nuke test…

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Bankers Planned “Permanent Migration”– in 2008!

imageYes, the banker class has been planning this since at least 2008.  We found a document to support that assertion.

Yes, we have made much in in the past couple of weeks about what is really going on with the global economic picture.  Most notably, we explained that the main reason why there has been such a huge – and sudden – trade in human immigration is for one very raw fact:

Immigration allows governments to “make-up growth.”

The mechanics of this are simple – and crystal clear when you review the data from our Wednesday report.

Today, we tackle a slightly broader issue:  How are some of the other ways that “Growth can be made-up?”  but more to the point….who’s been planning this?  The answer won’t surprise you.

After a few headlines of lasting importance and our ChartPack, of course…

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