The 45-day Technical Picture

I bet you’re wondering what’s ahead of the economy, don’t you?

Well, not to worry, mon ami, we have the answers.  A discussion from Robin Landry who has missed all the big declines like 2008/2009 and 1987 and 2001… and of course our own Trading Model which signaled the present downturn nicely by going to cash on July 3rd.

So here we go…just a few headlines but then a serious drill-down into what to expect in the next 45-days.

Oh, and I didn’t mention, but in the pictures of the bullet holes in my airplane, those pictures are all looking UP from the bottom of the airplane…some people weren’t clear on that.  Yes, I was laying on the hangar floor taking the pics and no one called Greenpeace.

Reader Note: I’ve been invited to chat with George Noory again on Coast to Coast AM on Monday night/Tuesday morning.  It will screw up my sleep pattern, but it’s always fun to chat with George and I expect we’ll have lots of call-in time, too.  Like they used to say – “Check local listings.”

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The Coming "Retirement Crash" (Part 1)

Think the Market have been tough lately?  Only foreplay compared to the larger picture.

What most lack is the follow-thought thinking about what happens to government transfer payments and Social Security when the market enters a protracted Bear.

Everything going on in the world around you is still in pretty good condition.  And as we mentioned in last weekend’s report, container traffic from Asia is actually up a good bit compared with year-ago levels, so the end of the world isn’t here.

And even Monday of this week after the Dow had dropped more than a thousand points, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index was still in the mid 900’s.  This is an index which had been 40 percent lower in 2009.

There is no point wishing for a lower market, it’s baked in the cake.

Around Peoplenomics, though, the next problems becomes our focus.  And that NEXT set of PROBLEMS will be what happens in the event the long wave economic outlook which says this is merely the start of the Second Depression works out to be true?

Coffee, a few headlines, and charts.  Then  we’ll shovel into the “grim stuff.”

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Sunday Special: An Option Radar Oddity

Quick!  What has five graphics plus nine charts?

Normally, we don’t get up and start work at 5 AM on a Sunday, but as shown in our report Saturday, this is anything but a “normal” weekend.

So here’s the plan:

First I’m going to show you how to build your own D.Y.I. OptionRadar  To do this, it helps to be able to know your way around a spreadsheet pretty well, including charting functions with trends.

Secondly, we will discuss the two oddities on the OptionRadar:  Market closure in December and a strange attractor in the S&P 1,450 area.

So much for a weekend off, eh?

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The Long Wave View of this Week’s Market Decline

Good news and bad for you.   The good news is the market is closed on weekends.  The bad news is follow-on downside is possible into Tuesday, at which  point a turnaround is possible.

Even though our Trading Model has been short 7 out of the last 8 weeks, it’s still a worrisome possibility in our charts that this is a Wave 1 down, not a IV correction before a final romp higher.  We’ll give you the trading targets and the charts in a minute. 

The real problem we all face is this:  Your retirement is under attack in a serious way now, a topic we will cover more in coming weeks.  Whether by handing it out to immigrants, or the falling rates of return due to low interest rates, retirements are not looking good.

The short-term problem with the future is that it’s a “negotiation” and all the interested parties who have some skin in the game will try to push things one way, or the other.

What to do? 

We skip our usual headlines this morning and propose a novel course of action for the Fed to take before its next meeting.  It’s a longish report since I’m distilling it all down to the bare essentials as best I can.  But as our long-running Global Index shows, the global finance is a closed system.  And we’re all locked in this prison cell, like it or not.

We will attempt an integration of market technical analysis, information analytics, futuring, and a discussion of what the real-time present economic condition of America is.

Three cups and maybe four worth.

Note to New Readers:  If you are not familiar with “long waves” in economies, please see the wiki entry here for a discussion.

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DIRT: "Day Information Residue" Trading

Why would a perfectly good doom-capable writer, such as Ures truly, be planning to sell his airplane next year?  Probably May’ish to June?

I mean, sure, if the crop of doomsayers predicting “Central Banks Losing Control” and other such spittle are right, then Ure’s the fool.

The reason that I have been snoozing through the alarmists is two-fold.  One:  They are usually wrong.  And Two: I had a novel to finish which is now nearly done and looking for a publisher or good agent.   Make that three reasons:  They’re also perpetually wrong.

Did I waste my time?  No…never.  You see, as you’ll discover in this morning’s report, there is a significant linkage possible between what I call Day Information Residue that many people trade on.

We’ll delve into the psychology of trading after coffee and headlines, as is our Saturday habit around here.  Let’s start with the breaking news on consumer prices, shall we?

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A Purely Technical Discussion

No worries or long and strange words in the mix in this morning’s report.  Which will be very short and to the point.

The “Why” behind that is very important:  The markets, you see, are very much like Matryoshka dolls. There is a global market and the US markets “fit inside of that” in a manner of speaking.  Thus by looking first globally and then domestically for congruence’s, we can hopefully line up our expectations a little better than most. 

Except for the big quake possibly  coming around October 26, but we’ll get to that.

So grab some coffee – we’re into it.

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The Best – and Worst – Investments in Life

The Dow is about to get its ass kicked at the open this morning – the kind of thing our Trading Model has been telling us for about four out of the last five weeks.

With it, we are focusing on only two stories this morning in a good bit of depth, because getting things write in personal finance over the next six months might make – or break – you and your family’s financial future.

But, in case you’re wondering, the Best and Worst investments in Life are often (and paradoxically) the very same things!

We skip the superfluous headlines.  Meat and potatoes is all we’re serving today… we’ll pass on superfluous, especially those Distraction Rolls.

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Pretend We Have a King

Today we proudly present an interview with the King of America.

Not that we have a REAL King, of course.  One of the best things about America is what?  That we don’t have a monarchy.  Instead, we have divided power between the Courts, the Congress, and the Executive.

Except, as a result, all the functions of the Monarchy are still fulfilled and those in charge are abled to exact the same tribute as a King or despot.  Funny how history works out.

The downside to multi-personality (disordered) governance is that we don’t have one entity to hold to account when things go wrong.  Which, in turn explains why we have so much “he-said, she-said” and finger pointing.  What we have for breakfast, then, are a few notes on how illusory economic progress is – and the mechanics behind it.

All made so much easier if we pretend to have a King and follow the economic evidence from there.

So if you’re wondering how both parties can claim belief  in a balanced budget, yet nothing ever seems to get done about it, the model shown today will explain how things really work and show you the illusions hidden in the detail drill-down.

After our Trading Model and some headlines, of course.  And sure, several cups of coffee, too.

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The Death of Accountancy

Think robots won’t take your job if you are a CPA or if you push accounts (receivables or payables) around for a living? 

Think again.

Ures truly has been talking to his network of financial terrorists, again.

No, not the ones that shovel pennies around to ISIS/ISIL or the AQ type.  Nope, the financial terrorists I deal with are the ones who set up things like auto payments, micropayments, automated accounting systems and specialize in workforce/process automation.

If you think financial terrorism is something that springs from the mind of ideologues in the Middle East, wait till I show you the short-step process to kill most accounting jobs.

After a few headlines and our Trading Model update, of course.

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Thanksgiving Flash-Bang

img722This morning we go a-futuring…a futuring we go…

And who is this somewhat obscured fellow off to the right there?  (Unless you’re dyslexic, of course, in which case that’d be your left.) 

Why it’s none other than Lemony Snicket!

And…what’s this?  A big speed bump in the road during the Thanksgiving recess of Congress! 

How, pray tell, does all this fit into Long Wave Economics?

This morning we will examine one possible future that answers these and a lot more questions.  One that fits market wave counts, defense deliveries, and no one home in Washington.

But first, as few glimmers of hope, since we are now in the throes of sneaking up on the new high which usually happens in summer rallies in just a few short weeks.

After the Trading Model and some discussion or headlines.

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How to Slaughter the Bond Bulls

While the Fed announcement today is not likely to see an increase in rates (fall is more probable) there is still a very interesting bit of learning to be had by graphing out the ultra long-term Velocity of Money.

Not surprisingly, the Velocity now is wose than it has been at any time in the last 115 years.

That is a terrible structural problem for the Fed to deal with – and in this morning’s analysis we’ll explain why and how it will impact you personally.

First, however, the usual:  A few news tidbits and other goodies like our Trading Model.  Plus many cups of coffee…

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Quest for “The Signal”

Forget about UFOs, ETs, life on other planets, or putting a few bucks a month into a SETI fund.

Not that these aren’t fine ways to spend money, after you have saved for retirement, paid off your car, student loans, and don’t owe anyone a dime ands have burned the mortgage… I mean they’re nice and all.  But where’s your priority?

Here lately I’m on on a question for something I call THE SIGNAL.

You know – the one that will tell you with adequate lead-time when to make this trade, or that, and which will result in becoming so fabulously wealthy that you will be able to buy a UFO, ET, or a whole large array for SETI to use.

This weekend, some design and theory notes on how to go signal sniffing for the one signal that could really make a difference in your life.

After we take cared of a few headline items and after we stare into the Trading Model to see where things are going in the short-term.

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Designing a Perfect Retirement Home

Oh, sure, you’re thinking “One of those places where old people go to die?

No.

I’m  talking about the average American couple who has looked after their health a bit, has a paid-for home, and wants to live out life there for as long as possible.

What will in take to make a home “work” well into the 80’s and (with any luck) beyond?

This week, we do a bit of planning in that direction, while we update the Trading Model and look at a few headlines along the way.

In keeping with the Peoplenomics outlook, we are not heavily into spending money, so much as we try t buy the right things that will give us a leg up on life.

Do that well and you’re way ahead of the pack…

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