george@ure.net

As the lights went out early this morning, oil was back down on international markets and testing its low.  And oil is now facing three whammies in a row – with a special fourth whammy out this week in the XL pipeline decision.

This morning’s column offers a fine case study in how it’s cheaper to invest in environmentalists and lobbying in order to make money, than just about any other use of investment capital.

But first, more coffee and headlines and we roll into another Hump Day…with a somewhat abbreviated column due to being up late with a radio interview this morning… 

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A number of readers have asked me, in so many words, “If government can simply steal all, or part of our money through confiscation – as in Cyprus – what the heck should I save and what are ‘cash equivalents?”

That is a question near and dear to the heart of preppers.

Fine question, not too long an answer, but worth kicking around because a country which has more debt that annual GDP is (in a very real sense) and economic time-bomb waiting to go off.  And when governments go off (on the people) the results are often infuriating and outrageous as any Cypriot, Greek, Italian, Irish, or Icelander will attest.  Prepping of the most extreme sort, but….

First, however threes the ever-important Trading Model and coffee…

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The nice thing about intellectual honesty is that it’s OK to make mistakes.  Especially when being suckered by history.  As it turns out, what our Trading Model is forcing us into, in light of recent action, is a complete reassessment of where we are on the calendar in terms of economic replays of great/catastrophic historical events.  But no, it doesn’t look like 2007-2008 was the all-time high as some readers have suggested.

Not that our postings on the replay of the Great Depression (since 1997) have been totally wrong:  They have been useful thought tools and we’ve made a little money along the way.

Still, “as the wheel turns” we acquire new information, such that the future is becoming more clear before us every day.

So toward that end, to wrap up a fine year where the “model has been righter than the gut” we outline a new way of looking at the great rhyme of history.  And as such, it offers an alternative that will be integrated into our outlooks going forward.  And that outlook includes some genuinely outlandish possibilities.

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This weekend and next week, we will be keeping a “tight” focus on our outlook for 2015 which – much as I hate to say it – continues bullish into the new year.  Although an end-of-year rally will be satisfying to a lot of people, there are some technical reasons why the rally may continue even into 2017 – and it’s a set of reasons that will have us looking back at market data from the 1920’s (and earlier) for comparisons, this weekend and on Wednesday.

But comparisons are complicated because (like it or not) humans are “coming out of the investment loop.”  And as this happens, the “meaning of money” is changing.  And that gets us into crypto currencies and then….well, after some first items, we’ll set the statistical table.  As usual, we will be trying to connect all the dots, but we’re looking at a big ball of yarn right now with some breathing room before the big unraveling…

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What does an FA-18 Hornet going transonic just before busting up over Mach 1 have to do with why Ford brands a car as its “Mach One” and how does this fall figure into the price of oil and where to make the next smart investment?

It’s all in how you “grid the world.”  It’s something we all do, but it’s not something often articulated because it all goes back to parenting, schooling, jobs, and the bouncing around through life.

But ultimately, how well you do on the financial side of the house is decided by two simple concepts:  How you think and its next door neighbor what you think about most.  And then it all distills down to what you do about it.

By the time we’re done, I believe you’ll be convinced that 2015 holds immense opportunity.  Not only that, but I’ll let you in the method I am following in order to “find the next Microsoft.”  It’ll be some intellectual hopscotch, but believe me when I tell you, we have some clues where to look.

With the holidays here, we can get somewhat philosophical here and show you a method of thinking about the future that may help you on your path to wealth and riches.

After coffee and our Trading Model.

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As if this will take any of the readers of “Broken Web:  The coming collapse of the Internet” by surprise, the Sony hack has put a whole series of perspectives into place about what life will be like on the digital frontier from here forward.  We’ve got everything from “made up money” in the crypto currencies, to rips of books, and robots following close behind.

A primer on digital anarchy after our ChartPack, a review of the Trading Model, and a few significant headlines to light off Saturday…

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Off into the intestines of Nikolai Kondratiev Wave theory this morning, as we attempt to make sense out of global markets in general and what may be coming for the USA market, in particular.

This is hardly a trivial pursuit because in case you haven’t noticed, the Dow Jones Industrials (which were showing hints of a small rally earlier this morning) are in a “great heap-o-crap” because the 200-day moving average is being quickly approached and a number of technical indicators are verging on collapse.

So the exercise of reviewing the literature (and a bunch of charts) in order to map out a rational trading response is a good thing and quite justifiable, give our believe that we may be  on the cusp of ending the false boom that was initiated in the wake of the Housing Collapse.

We will attack history, parallels, and most important – how to make a buck in declines – so have plenty of coffee at the ready and a spare roll of Charmin, too.  Because when it comes to crash possibilities things turn distinctly ugly in the next year or two.

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Annual Forecast Issue:  Full-on Depression?  Runaway inflation?  Or will a breakthrough in a field like anti-gravity from all of that money being poured into CERN energize the world and will lead us to a group realization that much of what we’re doing (and doing to one-another) is just plain wrong and stupid?

We’re coming to an interesting junction as we peer into the future a few short weeks into 2015.  Rally or die week ahead for markets, too.

For as long as I’ve been writing about finance (30-years), planning a reasonable course in 2015 is probably the most difficult year on record.  The numbers about Fed money creation, the Federal Debt to the Penny – and where we are in the sunspot cycle do not lie, though,

But how much do we understand of that which we think we know?

Time for coffee and a few headlines about underlying assumptions, the Trading Model, and then a nervous look into some very odd trends.  Of the sort that can flip the world upside down in 2015.

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Times are changing for pro sports.  Not yet visible in the absurd level of marketing hype and product licensing of names, logos, and mascots, but changing they are. 

Issues like use of public bonding authority and new forms of personal extreme sports are one front, but so is the rising awareness of the long-term injury costs of sports at all levels.  This morning we examine some aspects of the playing field and come up with some interesting data about the high cost of sports at many levels and point to how things are changing as a social/sports pendulum begins to swing.

First, though, coffee, headlines, and charts…including how our trading model is doing.

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Say, here’s a wild-eyed thing to consider if you’re a prepper:  Can the US Population be controlled?  Not that it’s impertinent, since we have had demonstrations in places like Ferguson and more recently, New York, Dallas, and elsewhere.

So to what degree can the civilian population be controlled?  It’s an important question to investors to keep up on, since how people feel has everything to do with who feels enough confidence in the future to put some money behind it in the way of investments.

Before we get into the details, though, our usual first stops will include a few news stories that being to sketch out something I’m calling the “Workberg”.  Remember, last time we stood on the bring of America The Titanic, we coined the word “Debtberg” which, as projected, rolled over and caused the Housing Bubble to collapse.

Now we have this Workberg in sight, just two points off the starboard bow, and we may not be able to put the helm over in time to stop it.  As we get closer, we will get back to our abandon ship exercises.  For this morning, there’s always time for more coffee and some sightings on the berg…

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A reader request brings me back to one of my favorite pastimes of life:  Boating.  Specifically, he wondered, realizing that I lived on a 40-foot floating survival platform for more than a decade, what would I do in today’s world?  Which boat…details like that.

If I wasn’t 65?  Or, if I hadn’t built an ideal survival platform in the middle of the country which can be more self-sufficient than a boat?  These are incredibly complex discussions, but I want to share his question and show you some darn interesting things about boats and bug-out tools…many of which you may not know – even if you are a boat owner yourself.

But first the headlines and another peak at the blow-off top that’s ongoing here in the latter part of the Greater Depression’s replay of the Roaring Twenties.  We don’t have the flappers and prohibition, but lots of other social taboos of the more modern sort…it’s just the kind of thing we like to chew on around here… Once we work the Trading Model and figure out where meals are coming from…along with the morning coffee…

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This being primo shopping time, we will keep today’s report short, sweet (or semi-sweet, as the case may be) and to the point.

A number of readers have expressed concern with my outlook on civil disorder, particularly when I referred to the “business” of it in Friday’s UrbanSurvival report.

So this morning a reality check:  What would the American economy look like without corrections corporations, lawyers police cars, prisons, deportations, TSA, criminal drug families, rehabs and all the rest of how we “Monetize Crime” and turn it into one of America’s most important economic sectors.

But first, we look at the Trading Model and our unique way of doing charts that spreads different sort of light of what’s be happ’nin now.  At least until the stores open…

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A reader of ours, and a viewer of the old Jetsons cartoon series from the 1960’s, has been wondering just how we’re doing on the road to the high tech future of George Jetson, his wife Jane and their two teenage kids fly around in space cars.  America is short of dreams right now, so sure, let’s look into the future of personal flight…

Since this is not a real serious market day, and neither is Friday, we’re going to “lighten up” a bit and do a little comparing of the regulated, engineered, computed future versus the cartoon image of what the future oughta be like.  We’ll skip over parts you already know – like the World’s Fair idea that atomic power would make electricity “too cheap to measure.”  We know how that one worked out.

Before the fun, though, a few headlines and our Trading Model.  Money never takes a holiday, except as a hostage, perhaps. 

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