Yes, a warning about Monday/Tuesday. Words like “charm offensive” and “unintended consequences” may be about to sweep over the country. So, we depart from our usual big picture look at economic life – and how to survive whatever comes next – as we consider whether the markets are telling us something in advance about events to come next week. For this morning it’s a statistical blip, but that has never stopped me from putting on a wild-ass trade (like the one I put on the week ahead of 1987, come to think of it). A short rap this morning on making money on disaster. I will update the ChartPack over the weekend. But for now, life is all about capital preservation in uncertain times. And making a buck on a wild-eyed gamble…MAYBE….
George Ure
Trading Through the Shutdown
Even if you only have a few dollars in a 401-k plan, this morning’s report is very important since the financial waters are looking a bit stormy in here. So…This morning, after a long couple of weeks on the road, we are back home and now face the daunting task of making sense out of things, It’s a bit like walking out on a chess game, having your opponent make several nonsensical moves, and then coming back to see if that “winning strategy” you had before going on walkabout for the game still makes sense. After, of course, the usual midweek coffee and look at…
How Transparent Economics Would Really Work
(Elko. NV) Thursday morning’s UrbanSurvival report (*available here) rather cynically lambasted the whole US government reporting system for p[resenting the public with mindless statistical gobbledygook which is almost impossible to sort out in any kind of meaningful way. So I thought it would be instructive this morning to look at how we could rewrite economic reports so that the general public could get something useful out of them. However, before we go into this, we begin with our trudge through the headlines to see if the world survived another night. Which it would have to (logically) in order to be posing rhetorical questions like this, but we’ll do it anyway while the coffee kicks in.
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Chicago: The "Soft Entrance" of Martial Law?
(Grants Pass, OR) We continue our adventuring around the country this morning with a trip over to the east Bay area and a day of consulting tomorrow. But, on our way, we’ve had plenty of time to see some interesting things in America, including having the luxury of watching the follow-on to the Chicago shootings debate this week and a shocking move on the part of the Secretary of State. But, as usual, before we get into those items, a discussion first about how a few other headlines are rolling…
The Odds Change on "Climatecide"
Out here on the road, as we’ve been traveling about for the past week, it’s become apparent that something is going on with climate, but what – exactly – is not clear. In part of Texas, the drought continued until Friday, and for sure driving by Chaco Canyon’s ruins is something of a wake-up call. But there were smatterings about in the headlines this week that prompt us to wonder “What if Al Gore, et al, get this completely back-asswards and the climate flips into global cooling rather than global warming?” Hot or cold on climate, though, we start as every morning with hot coffee and a cool eye on some emotionally hot headlines…and we have tons of those including another “on schedule” shooting…
The “Method School” of Economics
“What’s my motivation?” is an odd cliché for a site ostensibly about long wave economics to be inquiring about. But this morning we’ll take a quick look at something that has been rattling around in the back of my mind since about the second day of our latest adventuring around the country. First, though, some headlines to help kick the brain cells into functioning – helped along by a generous shot of coffee as we await sunrise (or is that cloud rise?) on Puget Sound.
Living Through the Turn
A reader asked me a while back “My favor then, is to ask if you would write a commentary or short report on your macro insight of their chapter 11 on Preparing for the Fourth Turning in both an economic and social commentary, and where we might be historically speaking, in that turning ?” It will be short, and to the point, but not before we grind on some morning headlines…
Serious Prepping Notes: “Wearable Wealth”
There is much ground to be covered this morning, what with Syria developments,
the Kerry Clock, and even our trading positions as we try to beat the Grim
Reaper of Wealth and life savings. So buckle-in and bean-up…this is one
of our most interesting mornings in a long while…Oh, did I mention the next
mass-killing/terrorism likely date is October 8 based on some new insights into
futuring as part of our Nostracodeus project? This is 9/11/13 and 12 years after
9/11/01….so you do see what’s missing, right?
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The Most Difficult Market Judgment of the Year
This morning, as we will discuss in some depth in our ChartPack section, there
looms one of the ugliest cash and account management decisions of the year,
thanks to Syria. Plus, along with that, we’re also starting to see some of
the more unexpected impacts in other areas starting to come into view as well.
But before Mr. Jolly gets into these light-hearted topics, we’ll do our usual
Mrs. Olson’s with two eggs over easy and a side of death, doom, and disaster
first…
Playing the Markets by Prophesy?
Some mental tuning is in order this morning as the world is engaged in a massive
hand-wringing festival over what happens next in the Middle East – and by
extension – what will happen to life savings and the sunset of civilization in
general. Then we cast a steely eye on the matter of whether this could be
the “End of Days” period. Odd for an economics-oriented site I’ll
grant you, but you “must be present to win” in markets, and if the
world’s going to end, some consideration of how to gracefully withdraw from
markets and where to deploy life savings would make sense. Why, that’s just the
kind of chipper and cheery good news that just makes you want to spring out of
bed this morning, isn’t it? First coffee and assorted headlines and then
notes on what to watch for.
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The End of Labor Days: It’s Time to Tax Machines
Only an idiot would call this “Happy Labor Day Weekend” because of how quickly jobs are being lost not only overseas but to robotic automation. Can’t policy wankers track the destruction of the American job market or the percentage of people holding jobs? I mean WTF? A second chapter is presented this morning for Peoplenomics.com readers of my next book. In this one, we address this
underlying problem in America that wasn’t in sight when the Founders crafted our marvelous Constitution. It’s the problem of preferential tax treatment of machines over humans – and, I’m embarrassed to say, it was a con job that my great, great, great grandfather Andrew Ure had a hand in perpetrating. First, as we do every Saturday, we’ll run through some coffee and headlines to get the blood stirred up…then we can get on to the “deep thinking” section.
Update: The Nerve Gas Questions Linger But Evidence Builds
Further to this morning’s subscriber report, where we found some interesting archival data regarding past allegations of a “false flag “ nature regarding nerve gas use by parties in Syria, we have continued to dig around and (helped by a tip from reader DC) came across an article that seems to paint the “nerve gas” story buried in web archives as being an errant report on the part of a British media report.
As our reader put it:
I’m hopeful that this whole thing — chemical weaponry, impending invasion, and all — will also prove to be “completely fabricated”. However, I’m not ready to apply the test of “hope in one hand, and … in the other…”
Sound judgment that, so we correct/append with this further data as we come across it in our best faith efforts to keep the story of what’s going on straight.
Nevertheless, it is troubling to see reports of how the administration is preparing “…to bypass UN on Syria response…” since they’ve already been hard at work bypassing due process here in the USA by so far keeping Congress from its constitutional role as the body that is charged with declaring war on behalf of the American people.
Meantime, British foreign secretary William Hague is reported playing down how close a strike could be and prestigious Foreign Policy headlined that the US “…Intercepted calls Prove Syrian Army used nerve gas…”
The most important piece in the puzzle will be awaiting the UN inspector’s report which will presumably give the final word on whether the nerve agent use was “home brewed” in which case the rebels themselves could be outed as the perps, or whether the gas used was high quality military grade, in which case, the odds of Syrian forces as being the source o the attack would rise exponentially.
Today, the US markets rose on a lack of news on point, but while the earlier developments have faded in significant, we can safely report that evidence seems to be building against the Assad regime as fewer questions linger going into the overnight hours ahead of a long US holiday weekend.
False Flag Evidence and A Family Feud on ‘Peak Oil’
My brother in law announced to Elaine recently that “There is no ‘Peak Oil’
and went on to explain how we have oil coming out of our ears and on thing led
to another and next thing you know, I was biting my tongue and slinking out the
door toward my office because I wanted to write a rather lengthy response
because a number of readers, a few subscribers, and even my brother in law don’t
thing that Peak Oil is real. So this morning we run through some
definitional points and scale the reality. At it’s extremes, at $10,000 a
barrel, there is no peak oil…but here in under $10/gallon land, that’s another
matter altogether. But before we get into the modeling of how Peak Oil
works, we’ll run through some headlines and a cuppa coffee or three…
How about we start with damning false flag which you can find here in web archives from January of this year? (Note this Link may not work in Explorer, but it works in Firefox…) You can follow the
backlinks to the genesis of current events by following links to that story
source...or try this InfoWars stories from January 28.