Directorate 153 Hot List: The Bounding Disruptive Technology Problem

imageLong-time readers know that from time-to-time, as we attempted to wrap our brains about really, really big problems, we will resort to a blend of fact and fiction in order to make sense of the data that is accumulating before our eyes.

In doing so, we often come up with startling – and oftentimes amusing – takes on the world around us which – in turn – drives better informed investment decisions.  By acknowledging fiction and using it to sketch in some of the detail, we are driven to clearer perception of the facts.

As I was writing up my research outlines this week on our latest batch of home-spun gravity reduction/reduced-mass experiments, it became clear that even modest success in our pursuits could cause monumental problems in terms of World Management.

The concept – world management – is not something that is held in sharp focus.  In fact, I may be one of the few people who talks about it in public. Most conspir5acy types blame the wrong groups. But the concept is simple:  Suppose for a moment, that there have been undisclosed breakthroughs that the whole world is not ready for.  What is there are breakthroughs that would collapse the economy?  How?  Oh, take your pick:  Whole industries becoming pointless overnight would be one.  Another would be mass layoffs of millions of people worldwide.  You get to a threshold…

It doesn’t matter whether the source of the breakthrough is a crashed UFO a mere 90-miles from the first atomic tests at Alamogordo/Trinity, whether there was something found in Russia after the Tunguska event, or whether the Germany Ahnenerbe actually achieved a break-through in anti-gravitics, or if there is some yet-to-be-disclosed aspect of nuclear explosions…

The point is that any one of these might hold a secret so powerful that if released “into the wild” of today’s world would result in an instant global economic depression in which billions would die.

That’s because any one of these would be such a massive economic disrupter that whole nations would fall and the resulting economic calamity would result in mass starvation.

So while we will do our usual top news hits and the long chart0intensive look at investments in the economy (hardly necessary as Ure’s new highs are coming, or so it seems), the real concept in today’s report is to further our work in the economic implicates of disruptive technologies and propose some novel solutions, using the vehicle of pure fiction which is far more suitable to brain-stretching that building formulae and showing how dead most of the world would be if too big a breakthrough was to allowed to occur without…..well, that’s where we get into the story.

Long-time readers know that from time-to-time, as we attempted to wrap our brains about really, really big problems, we will resort to a blend of fact and fiction in order to make sense of the data that is accumulating before our eyes.

In doing so, we often come up with startling – and oftentimes amusing – takes on the world around us which – in turn – drives better informed investment decisions.  By acknowledging fiction and using it to sketch in some of the detail, we are driven to clearer perception of the facts.

As I was writing up my research outlines this week on our latest batch of home-spun gravity reduction/reduced-mass experiments, it became clear that even modest success in our pursuits could cause monumental problems in terms of World Management.

The concept – world management – is not something that is held in sharp focus.  In fact, I may be one of the few people who talks about it in public. Most conspir5acy types blame the wrong groups. But the concept is simple:  Suppose for a moment, that there have been undisclosed breakthroughs that the whole world is not ready for.  What is there are breakthroughs that would collapse the economy?  How?  Oh, take your pick:  Whole industries becoming pointless overnight would be one.  Another would be mass layoffs of millions of people worldwide.  You get to a threshold…

It doesn’t matter whether the source of the breakthrough is a crashed UFO a mere 90-miles from the first atomic tests at Alamogordo/Trinity, whether there was something found in Russia after the Tunguska event, or whether the Germany Ahnenerbe actually achieved a break-through in anti-gravitics, or if there is some yet-to-be-disclosed aspect of nuclear explosions…

The point is that any one of these might hold a secret so powerful that if released “into the wild” of today’s world would result in an instant global economic depression in which billions would die.

That’s because any one of these would be such a massive economic disrupter that whole nations would fall and the resulting economic calamity would result in mass starvation.

So while we will do our usual top news hits and the long chart0intensive look at investments in the economy (hardly necessary as Ure’s new highs are coming, or so it seems), the real concept in today’s report is to further our work in the economic implicates of disruptive technologies and propose some novel solutions, using the vehicle of pure fiction which is far more suitable to brain-stretching that building formulae and showing how dead most of the world would be if too big a breakthrough was to allowed to occur without…..well, that’s where we get into the story.

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Second Depression Handbook: Transportation (Ch5)

imageHaving taken on some causative economics, the difficulties ahead for food (with an important addendum this morning) and shelter, not to mention sizing up the possibilities of the government calling gold and silver, we come this morning to the problems of transportation in the Second Depression.

With the market performance again this week, the case continues to build that we are more likely to have a 1920’s style blow-off top later this year, and into next, long before we have a complete melt-down, but it will be at that precise moment that all your wisdom will be necessary to keep from being sucked into dangerous herd-following actions.

Before we dig in there, a look at our charts, the first of the week’s job numbers, and a quick sizing-up o the “super” Tuesday results at the polls.

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A Simple “Brain Amplifier” Project

imageOK, you’re wonder, what is a “brain amplifier?”

Well, odds are good you’re reading this on some kind of a computer and they are definitely “brain amplifiers” but few people use them as they could be used to do things like, oh, make better stock trades and such. 

Instead, people tend to take off-the-net software, plug in some really basic configuration nonsense and call it “an application.”

While that works for Social Media and a few goodies like that, they are not likely to make you any richer financially and they will almost certainly withdraw a lot of your time from your life bank of that stuff.

So this morning a rap about “Bain Amplifiers” and how to apply a little Peter Drucker to the time we walk around.

So in order to really begin to take more control of our lives and outcomes, let’s bean-up and move along to some headlines and our charts…

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Self-Classified Fiction

imageEveryone likes a good story, especially if it is of the late Tom Clancy, high-tech genre.  But here’s an interesting problem:  What would a writer do if they came up with an idea which, for a specific part of our technological history, could do great harm to the country?

Would you publish?  Or, would you simply sit on the concept for a while…and wait until is passes?

This morning we roll out a very short story about how just such an attack on America might have been pulled off back in 2003.  But it’s no longer possible for reasons we won’t delve too deeply into.  Still, the key thing to be learned from the exercise is that if one simply looks around at the macro trends in society and government, one can do some pretty good scenario-building about the future.

And if you choose to make personal life-planning moves based on such an assessment?  Well, there are worse things that living a semi-autonomous life.

More on that after a few headlines and our charts.  At these last, we’ll throw a few darts here in the middle of G20 week…

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Staying Fed in the Second Depression

imageTime for the 5th chapter of our “Second Depression Handbook” to roll out.

We bounce this morning into the 5th chapter of our planning book on the Second Depression.  I still hold to the notion that we are not yet in a position to have the kind of down-and-out grinder of an economic catastrophe that Depressions are.

Simple:  There is still too much government can do to avoid the issue.  But roll forward a couple of years, out in the 2017 to 2018 period, toss in a new and failing administration, a return of the California drought, and increase in trade warfare, and massive population displacements due to too many people and not enough jobs…well, now we’re getting somewhere.

So we sit back this morning still hoping we have a couple of more years to run…which would be nice because this would not be a good weekend for the world to end…

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The Greater Worry than Gold Confiscation

imageHold or Fold on Gold  Confiscation Ahead? It’s the fourth chapter in our Second Depression Handbook that we’re writing for subscribers on-the-fly deals with confiscation odds and that means we will be taking a look at the events of 1930-1934.  This was the period that included the calling of both gold and silver in the Great Depression.  Some interesting clues are there for the taking.

We will review some important historical information and provide important background on what was going on in the handling of the nation’s money back then.

More importantly, we can then project what all this could mean for modern day investors as we try to out-wit Washington’s klepto-class when comes to moving assets from today into a very uncertain future in the 2017-2020 timeframe.

Plus there’s our ongoing ChartPack series which is also beginning to flash an important sign about the period just ahead.  Toss in some headlines to keep current, too.

This morning’s report is interesting enough that you might want to roll with decaf.

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The Role of Intuition in Stock Selection

imageEver have a hunch about an investment? 

Ever get a “vibe” off something when you so much as look at something?

Well, that’s our slightly off the deep-end report this morning. 

Although, as usual, we will be nose to the grindstone and present our typical collection of charts (11 in all this morning) as we also ponder the extremely important question:  Is the bottom in?

Bean-up and let’s roll.

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Peoplenomics: Second Depression Handbook (Ch. 3)

In this morning’s epistle, we come to the problem of where do you want to live when TSHTF.

It is not so apparent as you might believe.  For one thing, there are a ton of economic decisions to be made.  And, do you really want to live in an apartment should civil unrest follow mass layoffs?  Remember, in the last Depression there was some social unrest.

It will likely be a lot faster and more violent that the Bonus March, or any of the alternative government demonstrations that went on back when.  Remember, all the discussion back then came against a backdrop of a factory system and there were unions in ascendancy.  Today we have far less in the way of social check valves (which unions and a more puritanical life) fostered.  That “All American’s first” has been replaced with the “One for me and all for Me” kind of philosophy.

First though, a look at the charts and then we will lay out this housing problem in “Where to call home?” When TSHTF.

Sure, a NH note, too, but that you can get anywhere…but we will look at Janet Yellen’s forthcoming remarks.

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Peoplenomics:The Second Depression Handbook (2)

image

This morning we do a second chapter of our Second Depression Handbook as we look at a very important link that all major depressions seem to hold in common.

Along with that, we’ll have a few remarks on other items, including our earthquake discussion on “earthquake tired” from the UrbanSurvival column of Friday which – as a whole bunch of readers have noted, nailed the 6.4 in Taiwan.

But above all, we will look at the issues in the charts as next week shapes up to be a kind of “last chance” in our Aggregated Indexes work.

Load up on some extra coffee…there’s much thinking to be done…

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Brainwork While Waiting for Markets to Decide

Today, we stay right on our major task around here:  Navigating the financial minefield that becomes apparent when we are, as now, flirting with “disaster in the charts.”

Which means what?

Well, a simple discussion of charts this morning, plus a couple of technical indicators and our own Aggregate Index work (which a few people still don’t understand) as we await what will likely be a key driver this week:  Employment data which began flowing this morning…

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The Peoplenomics Second Depression Handbook (i)

imageWe are off on another book-writing adventure. 

This time, we will pull together and synthesize from of our earlier Peoplenomics reports, a bit of economic theory, and even a fair bit of look-ahead material which we use to divine trends in their infancy where they can be utilized to personal advantage.

Regardless of whether our expected fifth wave up occurs, it is now time to begin looking in earnest at the daunting project of collecting several tons of material and putting it into lay form so that people not versed in economics, trading, or investment in general, will be able to make sense out of what is coming down the pipe.

As we will explore in a potential opening chapter today (“A Matter of Perspectives“) one of the key difficulties is that really comprehending the nature of cataclysmic change is how you choose to consider the problem.

Hence, after our charts and a few news observations about a pretty boring week, we will offer some “perspective on perspective” as a reasonable starting vantage point from which to look ahead to what’s coming down the road.

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Seven for Success

imageWhile we are watching the markets slog it out this week – all to move but a few points from last Friday’s close in our Aggregate Index view of things – I wanted to pass along some ideas that will be useful regardless of Age.

I’ve been thinking a lot about this topic lately because periodic “life reviews” are a good thing. 
What I found was a collection of seven skills which can be brought out an applied just as you’d employ a business process to roll out a new ERP platform.
So after the charts this morning, a review of these seven critical skills that differentiate humans from robots.

And the weird thing? They all begin with the letter “R.”  Go figure.

First up, though:  Native warnings, Trump threatens, and the Bundy stand-off ends badly….

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Another Visit to the Threat Board

imageA while back  (April 2015, Peoplenomics 708-A “Should you build a Home Intelligence Platform?“) we discussed the value of using readily available web-based tools to help you spot trends.
We are paying a lot of attention lately to the word “trend” for another reason:  We’re writing a book on our word-frequency approach to Big Data and how it can be used to improve expectation confidence in coming events.
Admittedly, the process is like standing in the center lane of a busy freeway and listening to distinguish the sound of an approaching Kenworth W900 in your lane versus a T-660 in the outside lane…..
Don’t worry if that sounds a bit challenging at this hour…we’ll tear it down to coffee-sized bits.  But the main thing is we will be looking in on the Global Threat Board because it’s time to do that again.  If the concept isn’t familiar, you can find it in the January 17, 2015 Peoplenomics #697-B over here.
We’ll skip the old trucker joke about how “Ma wants Pa to get a new Peterbuilt…” and move on to the blizzard of data to dig out from under.

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