We take a pause to consider human predictability and that of markets. It occurred to me this week that we might be able to look at human behavior in an Elliott-like manner, so this morning we put on the psychological beanie and head for the couch. With the requisite golden scarab.
First, though, the usual smattering of headlines, a really interesting ChartPack, and then a little grist for the mill.
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We don’t need to wait for the New Year to show up; we can extrapolate several ways to plot this (bad) movie and make our plans accordingly. Which is fine, because with TurboTax shipping and the balance of 2021 expenses and income pretty-much known, we should be nearing a position where – as threats come into focus – we can allocate resources.
This is not to make any claims that all threats can be known. But we can bust the major ones into classes and begin working on things from there.
Which we will do after the ADP Job report just out, and with some of the headlines spilling over from the financial alternate reality next door into Life.
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Not of a bull market, but the entire silliness of global civilization. Not solely because of the Omicron version of virus, however. Our “reality” – which you can think of as the Second Tower of Babel – is what the Internet provides.
For the past 50-thousand-odd years, it has been a “nice” goal to have: People everywhere and everyone doing things for one-another. Where we went wrong? In the evolution of notional values as substitutes for real ones.
Not to rain on your holiday weekend – and I was only going to offer the bare ChartPack today (since it is a holiday weekend). But as I was plugging this week’s data into my “plan ahead modeling” which I haven’t ever mentioned publicly, well….one thing led to another.
Top off the bean and forget the headlines this weekend. Think of this as the background setting for our upcoming Annual Forecast edition for subscribers.
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Today we unveil a new business plan – on a project near and dear – and a bit of analysis on what the Fed has been up to. With both the H.6 money stocks report and trying to put a “foot in the crypto camp.” Some look-ahead on both is definitely in order.
Then there’s the usual rundown of the overnight news plus a few remarks about why China may elect to simply cancel the Winter Olympics.
Which then, in turn, fits into our 2 Wars or 3? framework.
Certainly not as warm and fuzzy as the feel-good, news groupie sites. But, have you ever considered their track record of prediction? And if you have, what are you thinking?
On to real news – the kind to navigate Life with…Tons of fresh and breaking data, so let’s hop to it..
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No, this is not a doomporn piece. Rather, it’s a sober look at where certain indicators are pointing from now through year-end and into 2022.
We will walk through it step-wise this morning and see what – if anything – can be done to profit from it. Save making a little scratch which may not be too useful.
In a data follow-up, we’ll show you how Pete Buttigieg, governor Gruesome, and the slow-Joe and Kamala farce are watching the supply chain crumble. California is bringing down America almost single-handed.
Headlines, ChartPack and out comes the turkey to defrost…
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Can people profit from knowledge of the future? It’s an intriguing question. It’s come up a lot in my life. Particularly since we are fast-approaching our December 1 time machine experiment window. Although our focus this morning is on less-direct means of knowing future.
So, in addition to our usual look at the week’s news, and the expressions of fear and confidence in our ChartPack, we will begin a serious discussion about futuring, along with some ideas to keep in mind for 2022.
Like when to duck and when to cover…
Oh, plus a million dollar idea you might be able to patent in the focus section!
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Mainly, we consider charts today because resolution is upon us and always occurs. Since we have a good bead on things now, some wild speculation is maybe in order.
A little something for conspiracy buffs as well as war-mongers in the headlines.
But mainly the charts, the way and wars ahead, seems a reasonable focus ahead of holiday-mindsets.
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Been asked by a new subscriber to explain how Elaine and I came to Texas almost 20-years ago. Pretty good tale, turns out. Very Monty Python: “And now for something completely different…”
After all, why would a couple in their early 50s walk out on five of the hottest cities in the country? Seattle, San Francisco, San Diego, Boca Raton, and Burbank?
It’s a useful story from the investment standpoint, of course. But more so from the “What do we really stand for?” aspect. The “How does it grow us the way we’d like to be?”
Turns out, this “adaptive lifestyle” has also become a marvelous defensive way forward into future, as you’ll figure out as we go.
Would we do things any differently in 2021? We review some of the long-term data which has, of course, changed a bit over time. But a lot hasn’t.
Tales to be told after we roll through some headlines. Sucky inflation. And the still bubbly ChartPack. Because some news – like the CPI data just out – does matter.
Although, so does “Flee the City! They’re unaffordable and will eventually collapse under the weight of their own spending!“
(Pardon the length of this morning’s discussion…bit long but I hope you’ll pan some nuggets from it.)
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That’s short for Military Operations Other Than War. And over the coming year (or three) it could be very useful to have not only a grip on basics of MOOTW, but also in the changes of “nation posture” ahead of such change at the systemic level.
Of course, before we get into this, a few headlines and the ChartPack to move those spike proteins around, eh?
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After a look at the breaking ADP job report... and sizing up the McAwful night for dems in Virginia…we propose that a drone is not a bad prepping tool to have on hand.
After getting my remote pilot license, we started kicking-around what possible benefit it could be for us. Amazingly – a lot!
All this after headlines and the charts. Which are awaiting this afternoons tap-dancing by the Fed Boss to see how they can taper and still puff on the bubble a little more. Should be fun!
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Although there’s a chance of collapse in coming weeks, the powering ahead to new all-time-highs has interesting implications. Some of which may turn into good, old-fashioned, money-making propositions.
This morning, not only will we consider the nature of “fifth waves” but we’ll do some research training along the way.
Right after a few headlines and a look-ahead at the coming week.
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OK, let’s say – just for the halibut – that we wake up some morning like tomorrow – and our worst fears all show up. What is our immediate reaction? Got “salvation” preset to roll in one click?
Years ago, we talked about how fire departments operated in the “old days.” This was before databases – and even VLSI’s come to think of it… For every call that came in, there was a “running card.”
Every home, building, office – you name it – in the city had a running card. Building inspections and assessments of fire risks were all pre-annotated. If there’s smoke, send a first response of units X, Y, and Z. If flames were visible, send in a chief, two more engine companies, and a ladder truck. First alarm right up through a 3-11 (3rd alarm).
Saved tons of time, prevented errors and indecisions. Yet, in an even more complex “battlefield of corporate earth” does anyone really have this kind of programmatic response pre-tailored and ready to rock and roll?
In how many clicks?
Our topic this morning after a few headlines and the soaring charts…
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Instead of a “focus report” this morning, we focus on charts. Because the market is – in our view – at a critical inflection point this weekend that may color America’s future for years to come.
Depending, of course, on which way things fall next week in markets. So without further ado…
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