But which one? The ones overseas or the one on American soil? We have data to review.
Plus in our ChartPack section, we’ll explain why we elected to carry a cash position into the weekend.
With odds of a peaceful weekend in trouble, we’ll keep tightly focused on the Big Things that really matter most.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
Our focus piece today is the “action plan” which became necessary when we looked at the most valuable thing to own in the future. That research kept coming back to food and water above all else. I will be making a grocery pickup this afternoon and for just two of us living a simple life, it’s a thousand a month to eat plus have a daily libation. Government inflation and experienced inflation are gapping.
The gardening skills are only part of the equation. The rest? Ah! That’s a time management problem. Since I’m a huge fan of both “Deep Work” and “the pomodoro technique” as focus tools, the logical marriage follows even out here in our 70s and 80s.
Before we get to the face-stuffing, though, a look at important headlines along with the odds of a sudden month-end selloff now that we have “Kissed the Trend Lines.” But will we reverse down? Ask in a week.
Stick around – there’s a lot to cover…starting with the ADP Jobs numbers just out.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
Why did I sit out going short this weekend? Therein lies a useful tale about charts, caution, time value, risk and every other financial term you can conjure up.
Oh, don’t get me wrong! I’m not going bullish, or anything outright stupid like that. It’s just a gut feeling about “pre-holiday rallies” which (gotten wrong) can be expensive.
On the other hand, at least one subscriber (with a better track record that me!) was considering a weekend short, so it’s a close-enough call it’s absolutely worth talking about.
Sure, sure, a few headlines first, but the whole point of Peoplenomics is to live the best lives we can, and putting our money to work for us, is one aspect, for sure.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
Today, we consider that as investors, we can pretty much own anything. Which gets us smack-dab to “What’s worth owning?” Not just for today, but for a definable period. Say the next 10-years. What do you buy?
It’s a long discussion but interesting. Because while we all like to be lazy about investing, there may be best returns in the future by getting up off the couch. We’ll explain.
Our caution about being short the market this week has paid off with the futures pointing higher. So in the ChartPack we will look at the next “kiss of Death” contact with trend channels.
Plus a few headlines as the world exits from Peak Prosperity into whatever follows that.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
We will spend a few minutes on the “Cycletron” spreadsheet after the ChartPack today. Looking at some ideas about the future that may be useful in plotting your own course to, and through, what seems to be coming.
As you’ll remember, I built a spreadsheet that lets you consider a range of starting points from the American Revolutionary period, and then plug-in various socioeconomic cycle-lengths as candidates and see where certain harmonics of historical events might be timed.
Along with this, we have the usual highlights of the week ahead, plus the overnight wires to tear down and consider for impacts.
In short, a nice, relaxing summer weekend morning.
Except of course for…
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
We don’t know where the idea of directed energy weapons being used on American targets came from, but it does make for a curious line of inquiry. Which we will take up this morning after a couple of other items.
Perhaps the largest of which is the ChartPack, which as we have been telling you has been pointing to the imminent start of a Wave 3 down that is likely to last into early next year and could see markets halved from present levels.
Of course, there’s the general news flow, as well. Including fresh droppings of Housing Starts not to mention the Fed Industrial Utilization numbers just after the open.
Ready for a really, really excellent time? Well, this may not be it…
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
We needed a tool for test-fitting economic cycle lengths from the American Revolutionary War period. So, here it is. Not to be confused with the Cyclotron in physics.
What? You don’t wake up with software/cycle questions in your head on Saturday morning? What are you, normal or something?
Before we speak with Abby Normal, a few headlines and the ChartPack will line up how things are. Here on what’s looking suspiciously like a mash-up of WW1, the Crash of ’29, with a side order of WW3.
Which threatens to go even more off the rails over the coming three weeks.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
While we await data, some reflection on where the notion of “five steps to a market move” may be rooted. One of the most interesting notions in a while (lassoed from my office chair) is the one that says just as people handle Death Grieving with five stations, so too a deep psychological drama is at play in markets, perhaps.
I love this kind of open-ended “test fitting” of ideas to see what works, and what doesn’t. A kind of nuts and bolts of concept extensions. Greatly occupying for the ADHD in us all.
Of course, there’s also the matter of Consumer Prices tomorrow which we’ll lead with. I mean, rather predictable, isn’t it? That’s the “omics” most people are interested in…
Time to read some tea leaves and coffee grounds…
And run some biorhythms, too, because we may each be the tea leaves and coffee grounds.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
The market decline this week may have marked the end of Wave II. Which would be, in Elliott Wave counts and trend channels be the rally lasting about 192 days from 2022 lows. Which was preceded by Wave 1 down from November 8, 2021.
Today, we consider our ChartPack and wonder how far down we could fall.
Not to be a spoiler but market levels half of two week ago levels seems increasingly likely.
What the present waveform suggest is not only purely economic in scope, but will lead into global war. That is, if history continues with this kind of Rhyming pattern.
This morning, a short summary of how we got here, where trends are pointing. And how the Fitch downgrade of American treasuries – glum as that was – is likely a “You ain’t seen nothing, yet.”
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
“You can’t take it with you” is a common saying as old age and Death approach late in Life. But, economics argues that might not be the case.
What seems more likely is that there is something we take and we propose that special “something” is what becomes our “currency”
in (or if) there’s an afterlife.
Heady stuff, but we also serve up the practical. In addition to the ChartPack and an understandably cynical view from seven decades of Observations, we will also keep an eye on what’s coming toward us in the jobs data just beginning its monthly flow.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
Not as profound as Carl Jung’s Dreams, Memories, Reflections. But a pretty good analog.
A few words about woo-woo work and what came out of some unusual dream work overnight.
But sure, the mundane and the charts, of course…
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
Let me give you the end of the article first: The Covid-Climate Dividend is here. There’s a deafening silence about it from officialdom. Many moving parts to this. A rollover from hand tools to machines, to computers to A.I. points toward a “useless eaters” problem just ahead.
While wars are waged for property, the right to tax residents, and to create artificial demand for more humans, more war materiel, and ever higher taxes for governments at all levels, they still remain central to the periodic die offs and tilling the Earth for future growth.
See, the problem with interest is that without growth, there’s no story to tell. No pandering of the “rent on money.” The leech class of investors – taking their outsized shares from the people who actually make things requires periodic rebalancing.
Wars are great economic tools, but only for those at the top of the pile.
But change is in the air. In the flattened forests of Ukraine to the cells where corruption simmers in our own government.
This being Fed Rate Day – FOMC at 2 PM, we’re in a rather pensive mood. One eye for the clock, the other on our six.
You see, Russia is preparing for mobilization.
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center
While we are focused on Top Calling this week. Interesting combination looking ahead. Especially in light of the market weakness Friday going into the close.
We will also take a look at next week’s calendar, celebrate my diet shedding 20 pounds (so far) and ponder if this week was “The Top” of Wave II.
Pour a fresh cup and let’s kick the door in…
More for Subscribers ||| Missing out? SUBSCRIBE NOW!!! ||| Subscriber Help Center