george@ure.net A look into the next 10-years for Millenials this morning, along with a visit to my electronics bench were we will turn a sine wave pattern on an oscilloscope into a useful economic teaching too. But first, we need to go over a few things including the PPI numbers just out this morning and the other floating bits of madness. With coffee, of course…
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As much as I lover spreadsheets, databases, data-mining, and neural networks, one of the biggest problems we keep stumbling toward (as technology continues to run-ahead of gray matter) really comes down to one ugly question:
Assume you have all the computational horsepower on the planet.
Given this, what would your methodology be to design a profitable trading tool?
Computational investment algorithms aren’t a lightweight topic for a Peoplenomics report (far more complicated that robust home power or bug-out bags for preppers) but they do present…uh….certain challenges that are intriguing. So this morning’s discourse will will attack the high-level review design problem.
After coffee, headlines, and our trusty trading model review…
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Seems to me that Washington has declared war on America. I don’t say this lightly: As a life-long patriot and believer in a strong, secure, well-defended United States of America I am shocked and appalled by the mind-game being perpetrated on the American public by political leadership that is actively subverting the whole premise of international borders; namely to keep it clear which country is which. It’s been in the works as Border XXI and it’s being unilaterally implemented by (care to guess who?) right now..
But that discussion is quickly becoming irrelevant because the American people are being mass-media hoodwinked into a very grim “deal with the devil” that will end up bankrupting America at either the economic or moral level, and more (more likely) both. But before we delve into what the numbers say (and this will be another fact-based discussion, not idle speculation), we’ll have decaf this morning since your blood pressure’s bound to rise when you look at the data.
The longwave economic implications? Socialism flourishes in this economic season and since we already have our modern analog to the Civilian Conservation Corp in place (www.americorps.gov ) why not more government spending to artificially create jobs? Worked in the last Depression, so why not this one?
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Morning after the Fourth, eh? Sounded like the Tet Offensive around here…more fireworks and scared wildlife than you can shake a Winchester at.
This morning we wrap up the $25 a month Retirement Improvement Plan but first we’ll pause for coffee and headlines.
Had a great time with George Noory on CoastToCoastAM last night…but I sense we’re both pretty frustrated with the lack of a national “Dream” – like going to the Moon was back in 1969. Have to wonder what the country would be like if it was chasing a happy goal instead of living as a commune of reactionaries…but maybe we’ll tackle that some other time…
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Since we’re in a holiday week, and the market put on a good chunk of our predict Big Rally, and since our Trading Model is still pointing “onward and upward” with this being a holiday week, I decided to pull the covers back on some of my retirement plans. Whether you’re 20 or 90, there may be some useful information in here that you haven’t thought of previously. Sure, the Grim Reaper comes for all of us, sooner or later, but for self-directed people, there’s a lot we can do to take the “grim” out of it. If we’re not careful, we might even have the “times of our lives…” But not until headlines and charts first, of course.
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With some key Fed comments this week, and the new-backward clocks of Bolivia, we consider a new way to perhaps make some serious coin over the next could of years. And in headlines this morning, a number of our unconventional worldviews are being validated by crossing headlines. It’s an easy read this morning because a lot of what was once-upon-a-time highly speculative outlooks around here seem to be materializing out of the fog pretty much as expected. Not that’s it’s good, but it is what it is…
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We’re going to ponder upgrading America to Internet-based democracy this morning.
In a 1979 paper, a very forward-thinking researcher described the problem of “datamocracy” and proposed “Strategies against computer abuses and in information tyranny.” Unfortunately, that horse if out of the barn now…so it’s time we look at some of the options ahead.
After suggesting innumerable times that Congress adjourn after immediately installing a secure online “Congressional Session” software package, and seeing that nothing is coming for such forward thinking….well, about here we get into some really revolutionary stuff.
First, though, headlines and coffee, but then back into the hard questions: What exactly is it about government that can’t be translated into an online service, any more than any other information entity can’t be translated into big SQL database which we call “online banking” and such? I don’t suppose you’ll need too much help understanding some of the concept in this morning’s report (birthing the electrofascist state is self-explanatory). The problem is “What do we do about it?”
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Two important topics to go over this morning. One is an interesting view of gold and silver plus a couple of major stock market indices. We find tremendous changes (and some possible opportunities) have arisen in the past three years. And, because there is continuing subscriber interest on home energy systems (prepping and rural pioneering), we go review the relative price/performance of some major energy sources. But the best one of all: Holistically trying to design a lifestyle and home setting that minimizes power needs. If you’re debating solar or wind power, this is your discussion. So bring on the coffee and reading glasses…
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Happy Fedsday! While we wait for the rate decision this afternoon, let’s talk nu-tech and where it leads:
We all know driverless vehicles are coming. It’s just a matter of how fast they arrive and how many of the currently-employed driver-jobholders will be axed as a result. What to do? In this morning’s report, we do one of our “look-ahead” views to ascertain where there may be opportunity to people who plan to have jobs in the future. We won’t resort to the analogy: How would you have liked to have been the first owner of a paving company back when the very earliest of Ford products was being introduced? Why, the earthmoving equipment alone could have made you a millionaire many times over with the Interstate Highway system.
As much as this level of “change” may be distasteful, there’s a very pertinent old saying that means something when comes to driverless cars: A problem is an opportunity – with its clothes on!
After we roll out “Mapping of the New [global] Caliphate, we might even get around to asking what happens to NASCAR when Google enters a completely optimized car that goes around the track with a passenger only, but with hands on a steering wheel? This and more mind-candy as the caffeine kicks in…
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With our recent views on immigration and what’s happening in the Middle East, we have gotten right up to the boundary where the rubber meets the road, or more correctly, where economic forces meet the headlines. As part of our work around here, I recently began to wonder if the current market run-up might somehow look like another 1920’s period; perhaps 1927, or so. This morning a couple of graphs to ponder as we ask with more precision whether the analog might be to May7th of 1926? And, if it is, what could lie ahead for the market? After headlines including the fast-moving events surrounding Baghdad…and that “deal with al Qaeda” that seems to be in play.
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A friend of mine called Tuesday morning, after I had posted the UrbanSurvival report and claimed that president Obama had “deported more than any other president in history!”
Not ready to believe anything, until at least noon local time, I agreed to do a serious look at the immigration statistics, and (not surprisingly) this is another case of Ure being right, much to the consternation of many of my friends.
The main lesson this morning is not to be critical of the administration’s immigration policies, but to demonstrate how Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) is a very useful tool when you come across a complex issue, such as immigration.
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This morning’s report was to have been titled “What’ll Be Left Standing? (2) The Matrix” but something much more important is coming into focus: Yes, a huge blow-off top in the stock market with a Dow north of 20,000 is likely in the wings. But it takes a lot of background to understand the dynamics and where it leads. One reason to expect it is in the Fed’s Consumer debt report out late Friday.
In our Wednesday report, we delved into some of the drivers of the New Depression and explored how certain social trends, like “children” living with their parents well into adulthood are helping moderate what would otherwise likely be a much steeper and faster descent into economic hell. Of course, the flip side of it isn’t all that pretty: Kids coming home drive the parents to work well past what could otherwise have been an early retirement age, but for the kids that don’t have the jobs to support the home sales that live in the “house that Jack built.” Note to nonsubscribers: Finest nursery tale ever, and it explains more about economics than most four-year programs and a good number of post-grad schools:
This is the horse and the hound and the horn
That belonged to the farmer sowing his corn
That kept the rooster that crowed in the morn
That woke the judge all shaven and shorn
That married the man all tattered and torn
That kissed the maiden all forlorn
That milked the cow with the crumpled horn
That tossed the dog that worried the cat
That chased the rat that ate the cheese
That lay in the house that Jack built.
But, then again, most economists I would argue, know plenty of math yet don’t grasp the circularity firmly. Or, to put it nicely, they don’t know Jack. We’ll be sure to mention when subsequent tertiary ripple effect circularity or the general dynamic stochastic equilibrium model is made into a nursery rhyme.
We dispense with our review of headlines this morning because of the importance of the underlying economic shift that’s just now getting underway.
Stand by to ROAR. With apologies to Prince for the poor play of his 1983 smash-hit ‘Party like it’s 1999”, We’re gonna partly like it’s 1927.
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A long-time subscriber up in Sandpoint, Idaho (since 2010) sent in a request this week: The general idea was looking into the crystal ball and see what sectors will likely be hot and which ones not, when the big collapse that everyone knows will be along one of these days, actually shows up. While I have been moderately bullish for a minimum of 1,982 on the S&P (with extensions up to the 2,200 level possibly in the cards) it sounds premature to be looking at the after-crash carnage. But since this reader asked no point in not doing some initial planning and expectation setting. As you’ll find, there are many-a-new odd dynamics in play that will make this Depression much (how to say this?) different from the last one. First, however, some oatmeal and decaf and a visit to the teletypes before we get down to the Trading Model and our “Continuity of Life” (while becoming filthy rich) discussion.
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