george@ure.net

What could sound more boring than “An investigation of waveform similarities between the current Wave 4 and the previous Wave 2?”

But I bet if I mention the potential for a 30-50 TIMES return in a trade of less than a month’s duration, you’d be interested.

You see, there is hardly anything more satisfying than wandering down the banks of a fresh water river that is running cool and clear, then enticing at monster trout to take a fly and playing him well on 5-pound test with nothing more than skill and 11-feet of hand-wrapped bamboo rod to help.

Well, maybe there is one thing that it equally rewarding as stalking the wild trout (or steelhead in winter):  Finding new relationships in the stock market. Ones you can potentially make money one.  And we’re not talking bait money here – we’re talking boat and airplane money.

So this morning we have us a sit-down with coffee and a lot at some charts and how we, too…the market nimrods…can bag an occasional big one.

Think of this morning as a Spreadsheet Class with a purpose – getting filthy rich would be nice.  But even if we simply avoid being too poor?  Well, in today’s crappy investment climate that would be a fine thing, too.  It just won’t press us into those higher tax brackets we all aspire to…

Oh…and a note for our UrbanSurvival readers:  That rally we talked about last Friday starts this morning, lol..

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A simple (and short) report this morning as we conclude our outlook for Q4.

I could go on about how other stories will impact our outlook, depending on the news flows and the like, but the fact is we have made far more money (and resultant net worth increases) by simply playing the big long-term waves than we have ever made on short-term noise trading.

Geared toward people with retirement nest eggs like ours, playing the short side is always tempting in declines.  Fast, easy money is always tempting.  But we tend to enjoy the sound sleep that comes with long side plays and holding cash in the a TreasuryDirect account.

“Bears make money, bulls make money, but pigs get slaughtered” is not lost on us.

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If you’ve ever wondered how I compose the charts and expectations used in Peoplenomics outlooks, this is the issue for you…today and Saturday’s will be “chart school.”

All those damn “squiggly lines” will not only make sense, but hopefully some money for you!

This morning we will interleave the drawing of lines on charts with a discussion of prospects for Q4 which should get us into the new year.

Normally, I would say something about how useful this information is to anyone – even people who think they are non-investors because they have their money in “safe.” retirement vehicles.

Sorry to say, but nothing is really .safe. anymore.

But there is a reason this is a two-part report.  The first part is devoted to a discussion of how I go about tackling the problem of divining the future.  So if you’ve ever wondered “what is the Aggregate Index:” stuff all about – and how can I make money with it – you have come to the right place.

We may not have all the answers, but we are slowly evolving a set of ideas.

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This is one of those “good news, bad news, and in-between news” mornings for you.

A couple of news stories this week have us asking un comfortable questions about whether the joint Canadian/U.S. Great Lakes is a catastrophe waiting to happen.  That’s the bad news.

The in-between is our outlook on the markets, which as I mentioned in passing on the UrbanSurvival.com site, is quite bearish for the next several weeks…but there’s a lot of detail to cover there including the charts of harmonics of past market declines and recoveries.

And then there’s the good news.  Elaine and I have been continuing our dialog on “What do we want to be when we grow up?” and – as a corollary to that…where might that be?  Some really neat options appear that can be done on a simple Social Security income.  *(for however long that lasts…)

So pour the mug (or coffee) and hoist it.  We’re off into the wild black and white and read all over…

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Where do YOU want to be when TSHTF?

I happened to be chatting with a fellow in town this week who’s a pretty good trader and he got to asking me what I’d do with a house of value X and payoff Y.   Where Y equaled about 1/2X.

It didn’t take me but a second to answer him:  Sell the house and get something you can own free and clear.  The focus on minimizing your monthly operating costs because, especially on the north side of 60, there is what I figure to be an even-money chance that Social Security benefits will be cut due to budget calamity long before you pass on to the ultimate tax-shelter six-feet under.

We haven’t talked about prepping for a while, but we have talked a bit about unloading certain assets, but this morning a bit deeper look at this is in order while we twiddled our thumbs to see how See-N-N can overhype the Final 10, which is the final 11, or can some not count?

The Fed meeting is this morning – and I am waiting like everyone else for the announcement tomorrow on rates  – sorry but my personal clock has been running a day ahead of time, of late.

A few comments on the charts, though, is the main thing, including a dart or two on when the market low should arrive and how far into next year to hold things.

So coffee up and let’s roll.

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(Somewhere south of New Orleans)  The Peoplenomics Cruise 2015 will be docking Sunday morning with (as we expected) no market panic.

However, just because we escaped the Big Bad Mean Depression II for now doesn’t imply that we’re out of the woods.  The Day of Reckoning has simply been (as anticipated) pushed back for a bit.

What will decide our future is an uneven stew – a mulligan is more like it – of Federal Reserve Policy, resource depletion, American presidential politics, and the wild cards thrown in by Asia’s major players and the solvency of Europe.

That’s a good framework to update since I’m a believer that if you start with the Big Picture stuff – and get THAT right – then the small stuff will fall into place, including trades to be made or cash positions to be held.

If, or when, you make trades with real money in the market, my hope is that you would “peel the whole onion” – from the Global/outer layer first – and then work analysis back from there.

I know it should be obvious, but that’s not always the case.  I’ve seen so many people make “blind trades” – and get hammered as a result – that it would make your head spin.

That and more as we conclude a week of mostly clear-thinking at sea…

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(Somewhere off Cuba)  This morning’s report is truncated.  That’s because we are doing exactly what our Model had been saying.

In short, we are now in a buying wave that will either end today or tomorrow,  and we should finish next week with a good….

Wait!

Let’s just get right to the lesson about backtesting and I show you how “Schmita” theories fared against my Trading Model in the 2008-2009 decline.  If you’re not a subscriber, the two word summary is “kicked ass.”

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We couldn’t have picked a better week to go on a cruise. 

Since our Trading Model started to flash “Everyone out of the pool!” back on July 3, when the S&P was up at 2,076.78, we’ve been waiting to see whether a couple of key support levels would hold. 

This morning, with the S&P at 1,921.22, the market is down about 7 1/2 percent, but we’d actually like to see a bit more of a decline before we move into a likely rally period.  To be sure there are many market “experts” who think we are crashing and to that end, we should all be in the fallout shelters already.

My view is a lot more pragmatic than that, so let’s hop to it.  As Front wrote “…and miles to go before I sleep…”

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As I explain on Coast to Coast AM Monday night, we come to this interesting “fork in the future” two weeks from today.

That’s when the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates will be made.  That will likely trigger one of two scenarios.  Under one, rates go up (as the Fed did in 1928) and it triggers a massive 2-year bubble that ends in the Crash of All Time.

Under the other, we get the same result.  It’s just we don’t get the luxury of two more years of preparing for it.  We crash now.

So this morning, some random notes on Depression Prepping, including fun home projects like the Zero Income Exercise, and more.

First, however, we start with some statistical strangeness and many cup of wake-up solvent.

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I bet you’re wondering what’s ahead of the economy, don’t you?

Well, not to worry, mon ami, we have the answers.  A discussion from Robin Landry who has missed all the big declines like 2008/2009 and 1987 and 2001… and of course our own Trading Model which signaled the present downturn nicely by going to cash on July 3rd.

So here we go…just a few headlines but then a serious drill-down into what to expect in the next 45-days.

Oh, and I didn’t mention, but in the pictures of the bullet holes in my airplane, those pictures are all looking UP from the bottom of the airplane…some people weren’t clear on that.  Yes, I was laying on the hangar floor taking the pics and no one called Greenpeace.

Reader Note: I’ve been invited to chat with George Noory again on Coast to Coast AM on Monday night/Tuesday morning.  It will screw up my sleep pattern, but it’s always fun to chat with George and I expect we’ll have lots of call-in time, too.  Like they used to say – “Check local listings.”

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Think the Market have been tough lately?  Only foreplay compared to the larger picture.

What most lack is the follow-thought thinking about what happens to government transfer payments and Social Security when the market enters a protracted Bear.

Everything going on in the world around you is still in pretty good condition.  And as we mentioned in last weekend’s report, container traffic from Asia is actually up a good bit compared with year-ago levels, so the end of the world isn’t here.

And even Monday of this week after the Dow had dropped more than a thousand points, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index was still in the mid 900’s.  This is an index which had been 40 percent lower in 2009.

There is no point wishing for a lower market, it’s baked in the cake.

Around Peoplenomics, though, the next problems becomes our focus.  And that NEXT set of PROBLEMS will be what happens in the event the long wave economic outlook which says this is merely the start of the Second Depression works out to be true?

Coffee, a few headlines, and charts.  Then  we’ll shovel into the “grim stuff.”

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Quick!  What has five graphics plus nine charts?

Normally, we don’t get up and start work at 5 AM on a Sunday, but as shown in our report Saturday, this is anything but a “normal” weekend.

So here’s the plan:

First I’m going to show you how to build your own D.Y.I. OptionRadar  To do this, it helps to be able to know your way around a spreadsheet pretty well, including charting functions with trends.

Secondly, we will discuss the two oddities on the OptionRadar:  Market closure in December and a strange attractor in the S&P 1,450 area.

So much for a weekend off, eh?

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Good news and bad for you.   The good news is the market is closed on weekends.  The bad news is follow-on downside is possible into Tuesday, at which  point a turnaround is possible.

Even though our Trading Model has been short 7 out of the last 8 weeks, it’s still a worrisome possibility in our charts that this is a Wave 1 down, not a IV correction before a final romp higher.  We’ll give you the trading targets and the charts in a minute. 

The real problem we all face is this:  Your retirement is under attack in a serious way now, a topic we will cover more in coming weeks.  Whether by handing it out to immigrants, or the falling rates of return due to low interest rates, retirements are not looking good.

The short-term problem with the future is that it’s a “negotiation” and all the interested parties who have some skin in the game will try to push things one way, or the other.

What to do? 

We skip our usual headlines this morning and propose a novel course of action for the Fed to take before its next meeting.  It’s a longish report since I’m distilling it all down to the bare essentials as best I can.  But as our long-running Global Index shows, the global finance is a closed system.  And we’re all locked in this prison cell, like it or not.

We will attempt an integration of market technical analysis, information analytics, futuring, and a discussion of what the real-time present economic condition of America is.

Three cups and maybe four worth.

Note to New Readers:  If you are not familiar with “long waves” in economies, please see the wiki entry here for a discussion.

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