(Somewhere south of New Orleans) The Peoplenomics Cruise 2015 will be docking Sunday morning with (as we expected) no market panic.
However, just because we escaped the Big Bad Mean Depression II for now doesn’t imply that we’re out of the woods. The Day of Reckoning has simply been (as anticipated) pushed back for a bit.
What will decide our future is an uneven stew – a mulligan is more like it – of Federal Reserve Policy, resource depletion, American presidential politics, and the wild cards thrown in by Asia’s major players and the solvency of Europe.
That’s a good framework to update since I’m a believer that if you start with the Big Picture stuff – and get THAT right – then the small stuff will fall into place, including trades to be made or cash positions to be held.
If, or when, you make trades with real money in the market, my hope is that you would “peel the whole onion” – from the Global/outer layer first – and then work analysis back from there.
I know it should be obvious, but that’s not always the case. I’ve seen so many people make “blind trades” – and get hammered as a result – that it would make your head spin.
That and more as we conclude a week of mostly clear-thinking at sea…