(Somewhere south of New Orleans)  The Peoplenomics Cruise 2015 will be docking Sunday morning with (as we expected) no market panic.

However, just because we escaped the Big Bad Mean Depression II for now doesn’t imply that we’re out of the woods.  The Day of Reckoning has simply been (as anticipated) pushed back for a bit.

What will decide our future is an uneven stew – a mulligan is more like it – of Federal Reserve Policy, resource depletion, American presidential politics, and the wild cards thrown in by Asia’s major players and the solvency of Europe.

That’s a good framework to update since I’m a believer that if you start with the Big Picture stuff – and get THAT right – then the small stuff will fall into place, including trades to be made or cash positions to be held.

If, or when, you make trades with real money in the market, my hope is that you would “peel the whole onion” – from the Global/outer layer first – and then work analysis back from there.

I know it should be obvious, but that’s not always the case.  I’ve seen so many people make “blind trades” – and get hammered as a result – that it would make your head spin.

That and more as we conclude a week of mostly clear-thinking at sea…

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(Somewhere off Cuba)  This morning’s report is truncated.  That’s because we are doing exactly what our Model had been saying.

In short, we are now in a buying wave that will either end today or tomorrow,  and we should finish next week with a good….

Wait!

Let’s just get right to the lesson about backtesting and I show you how “Schmita” theories fared against my Trading Model in the 2008-2009 decline.  If you’re not a subscriber, the two word summary is “kicked ass.”

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We couldn’t have picked a better week to go on a cruise. 

Since our Trading Model started to flash “Everyone out of the pool!” back on July 3, when the S&P was up at 2,076.78, we’ve been waiting to see whether a couple of key support levels would hold. 

This morning, with the S&P at 1,921.22, the market is down about 7 1/2 percent, but we’d actually like to see a bit more of a decline before we move into a likely rally period.  To be sure there are many market “experts” who think we are crashing and to that end, we should all be in the fallout shelters already.

My view is a lot more pragmatic than that, so let’s hop to it.  As Front wrote “…and miles to go before I sleep…”

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As I explain on Coast to Coast AM Monday night, we come to this interesting “fork in the future” two weeks from today.

That’s when the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates will be made.  That will likely trigger one of two scenarios.  Under one, rates go up (as the Fed did in 1928) and it triggers a massive 2-year bubble that ends in the Crash of All Time.

Under the other, we get the same result.  It’s just we don’t get the luxury of two more years of preparing for it.  We crash now.

So this morning, some random notes on Depression Prepping, including fun home projects like the Zero Income Exercise, and more.

First, however, we start with some statistical strangeness and many cup of wake-up solvent.

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I bet you’re wondering what’s ahead of the economy, don’t you?

Well, not to worry, mon ami, we have the answers.  A discussion from Robin Landry who has missed all the big declines like 2008/2009 and 1987 and 2001… and of course our own Trading Model which signaled the present downturn nicely by going to cash on July 3rd.

So here we go…just a few headlines but then a serious drill-down into what to expect in the next 45-days.

Oh, and I didn’t mention, but in the pictures of the bullet holes in my airplane, those pictures are all looking UP from the bottom of the airplane…some people weren’t clear on that.  Yes, I was laying on the hangar floor taking the pics and no one called Greenpeace.

Reader Note: I’ve been invited to chat with George Noory again on Coast to Coast AM on Monday night/Tuesday morning.  It will screw up my sleep pattern, but it’s always fun to chat with George and I expect we’ll have lots of call-in time, too.  Like they used to say – “Check local listings.”

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Think the Market have been tough lately?  Only foreplay compared to the larger picture.

What most lack is the follow-thought thinking about what happens to government transfer payments and Social Security when the market enters a protracted Bear.

Everything going on in the world around you is still in pretty good condition.  And as we mentioned in last weekend’s report, container traffic from Asia is actually up a good bit compared with year-ago levels, so the end of the world isn’t here.

And even Monday of this week after the Dow had dropped more than a thousand points, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index was still in the mid 900’s.  This is an index which had been 40 percent lower in 2009.

There is no point wishing for a lower market, it’s baked in the cake.

Around Peoplenomics, though, the next problems becomes our focus.  And that NEXT set of PROBLEMS will be what happens in the event the long wave economic outlook which says this is merely the start of the Second Depression works out to be true?

Coffee, a few headlines, and charts.  Then  we’ll shovel into the “grim stuff.”

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Quick!  What has five graphics plus nine charts?

Normally, we don’t get up and start work at 5 AM on a Sunday, but as shown in our report Saturday, this is anything but a “normal” weekend.

So here’s the plan:

First I’m going to show you how to build your own D.Y.I. OptionRadar  To do this, it helps to be able to know your way around a spreadsheet pretty well, including charting functions with trends.

Secondly, we will discuss the two oddities on the OptionRadar:  Market closure in December and a strange attractor in the S&P 1,450 area.

So much for a weekend off, eh?

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Good news and bad for you.   The good news is the market is closed on weekends.  The bad news is follow-on downside is possible into Tuesday, at which  point a turnaround is possible.

Even though our Trading Model has been short 7 out of the last 8 weeks, it’s still a worrisome possibility in our charts that this is a Wave 1 down, not a IV correction before a final romp higher.  We’ll give you the trading targets and the charts in a minute. 

The real problem we all face is this:  Your retirement is under attack in a serious way now, a topic we will cover more in coming weeks.  Whether by handing it out to immigrants, or the falling rates of return due to low interest rates, retirements are not looking good.

The short-term problem with the future is that it’s a “negotiation” and all the interested parties who have some skin in the game will try to push things one way, or the other.

What to do? 

We skip our usual headlines this morning and propose a novel course of action for the Fed to take before its next meeting.  It’s a longish report since I’m distilling it all down to the bare essentials as best I can.  But as our long-running Global Index shows, the global finance is a closed system.  And we’re all locked in this prison cell, like it or not.

We will attempt an integration of market technical analysis, information analytics, futuring, and a discussion of what the real-time present economic condition of America is.

Three cups and maybe four worth.

Note to New Readers:  If you are not familiar with “long waves” in economies, please see the wiki entry here for a discussion.

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Why would a perfectly good doom-capable writer, such as Ures truly, be planning to sell his airplane next year?  Probably May’ish to June?

I mean, sure, if the crop of doomsayers predicting “Central Banks Losing Control” and other such spittle are right, then Ure’s the fool.

The reason that I have been snoozing through the alarmists is two-fold.  One:  They are usually wrong.  And Two: I had a novel to finish which is now nearly done and looking for a publisher or good agent.   Make that three reasons:  They’re also perpetually wrong.

Did I waste my time?  No…never.  You see, as you’ll discover in this morning’s report, there is a significant linkage possible between what I call Day Information Residue that many people trade on.

We’ll delve into the psychology of trading after coffee and headlines, as is our Saturday habit around here.  Let’s start with the breaking news on consumer prices, shall we?

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No worries or long and strange words in the mix in this morning’s report.  Which will be very short and to the point.

The “Why” behind that is very important:  The markets, you see, are very much like Matryoshka dolls. There is a global market and the US markets “fit inside of that” in a manner of speaking.  Thus by looking first globally and then domestically for congruence’s, we can hopefully line up our expectations a little better than most. 

Except for the big quake possibly  coming around October 26, but we’ll get to that.

So grab some coffee – we’re into it.

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The Dow is about to get its ass kicked at the open this morning – the kind of thing our Trading Model has been telling us for about four out of the last five weeks.

With it, we are focusing on only two stories this morning in a good bit of depth, because getting things write in personal finance over the next six months might make – or break – you and your family’s financial future.

But, in case you’re wondering, the Best and Worst investments in Life are often (and paradoxically) the very same things!

We skip the superfluous headlines.  Meat and potatoes is all we’re serving today… we’ll pass on superfluous, especially those Distraction Rolls.

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Today we proudly present an interview with the King of America.

Not that we have a REAL King, of course.  One of the best things about America is what?  That we don’t have a monarchy.  Instead, we have divided power between the Courts, the Congress, and the Executive.

Except, as a result, all the functions of the Monarchy are still fulfilled and those in charge are abled to exact the same tribute as a King or despot.  Funny how history works out.

The downside to multi-personality (disordered) governance is that we don’t have one entity to hold to account when things go wrong.  Which, in turn explains why we have so much “he-said, she-said” and finger pointing.  What we have for breakfast, then, are a few notes on how illusory economic progress is – and the mechanics behind it.

All made so much easier if we pretend to have a King and follow the economic evidence from there.

So if you’re wondering how both parties can claim belief  in a balanced budget, yet nothing ever seems to get done about it, the model shown today will explain how things really work and show you the illusions hidden in the detail drill-down.

After our Trading Model and some headlines, of course.  And sure, several cups of coffee, too.

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Think robots won’t take your job if you are a CPA or if you push accounts (receivables or payables) around for a living? 

Think again.

Ures truly has been talking to his network of financial terrorists, again.

No, not the ones that shovel pennies around to ISIS/ISIL or the AQ type.  Nope, the financial terrorists I deal with are the ones who set up things like auto payments, micropayments, automated accounting systems and specialize in workforce/process automation.

If you think financial terrorism is something that springs from the mind of ideologues in the Middle East, wait till I show you the short-step process to kill most accounting jobs.

After a few headlines and our Trading Model update, of course.

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