From “The War Student’s Notebook”

Main item today, one that could pop from China, the Middle East, and/or Ukraine.  Sure, we will also do more of that *(boring) making money stuff.  But war.,..sheesh!  Impacts everything.  So, we get a bit exercised when risks build…

We will pick up our next episode of “Alt. Investments” this coming week.  That’s a touchstone topic because there is a balance in life between having fun, nurturing personal growth, and being in love on the one hand and “making sure the checks don’t bounce” on the other.

Today, war worries.  Which we will jump into after a few headlines springing from overnight events.

Reminder: Only four trading days next week due to Good Friday.  Passover begins at sundown tonight.

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Alt. Investments (1)

It’s not ALL about money.  Oftentimes, you can both invest and get some real pleasure out of experiences, people, and things.  Useful to think about, several times per year, we look at some unconventional ways to retain some personal earnings.

While some of these will have tax consequences, they will also offer an incredibly high payoff in “fun factor.”

So put down that mining workstation spec sheet and grab a Telecaster instead.

Because around here, the value chain starts with Love in the Heart at the top, and up there with it is Fun.  Money?  That filthy lucre?  Way down the list!

There’re “inside assets” (in personal RAM) that do follow you into the afterlife.  Then there are external assets that don’t – and no, bank balances don’t follow you.

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Rollover Now? Or Higher?

As much as theory attracts us, there’s nothing like a series of multiple trades – each with small profits – to work in the direction of eventual retirement. Admittedly, this is not the most popular theory on investing.  But in keeping with our evolving view that the stock market, Bitcoin, and damn near everything else is more a gamble than a reasoned judgment, it’s the lens (with long wave cycles) that we look through.

This morning, a focus again and charts and where we could be going from here.  One outcome – as you might imagine – is lollypops and roses.  The other involves a rotating set of fan blades and odiferous material impacting.

As you’ll read:  We’re fans of fans, right now.

After a few headlines.  Delivered in a sardonic, yet sure-footed way.

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Periodicity Within Collapse

By some measures, the stock market is at new highs this week. However, by other measures it is not.

This morning, some “notes to a colleague” on periodicity within collapse micro waves.

Not as simple as “Get ready to relive the collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-2000) here.  But, very much worth considering because the “Gambler’s Paradox” is likely to play out differently in America than in what’s now Russia.

A few headlines and such, then down the rabbit holes of finance we venture, again.

But, I must apologize (in advance) for the length of this morning’s column which is all over the place.  Including a couple of snips of woo-woo; one of which involves an earthquake…an yes, in Atlanta overnight, the “Murder Cycle” showed up…

On a cheerier note: Happy St. Patrick’s Day.


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A Climate Note to the Heirs

It’s easy to have “right now” views.  But, how’re they going to look 10-50 or 100-years out?  We “seasoned citizens” are supposed to have a clue on this stuff.  But on issues like climate, urban sprawl, soil depletion and disappearing fresh water?

In the Ure family – not over-done just usefully sized – is a kind of Father to Son downloading process.  Learning to look real-time at what might be useful in our (senior view, remaining 7,300 days of) Life.  And passing on some ideas beyond that for those who follow. Short-range to long term.

As my Danish grandmother often reminded:  “Our Children are Our Immortality.”  (Immortality is in a world a trouble, ain’t it?)

Today some ideas on (as Garner-Ted used to say) on the approaching “World Tomorrow.”  But not until after headlines and the ChartPack.    Current balances matter, too.  Someone has to cut the checks to buy tomorrow, after all.  The heirs will get their turn…but not just yet.

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The Sweet (But Crooked) Lies of MMT

The U.S. is going down an inflationary path, now.  It’s just a matter of when it gets here and how hard it will bite.

Not only did Congress abdicate its mandated money creation role, but with the Nixon-era slamming of the Gold Window, we have been adrift on a sea of Made Up Policy (e.g. the floating world craps game) since the 1970’s.

As we have been expecting, it won’t end well and this morning we offer some evidence along the way.

But, not without our usual Saturday morning headline review and our ChartPack.
Which, we have to say,  has remained devastatingly useful in playing “hide the sausage” in present market conditions.

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The Replay Marches On: "How Bad Could It Get??

Very.  Roadmap to collapse, anyone? After we kick-around the ADP report and a few headlines, we will lay out a possible track for the next two months.

Two new charts appear with some date ideas and things to watch in the period ahead.

Not a pretty picture, but instead, the kind of thing that has occurred in the past:  When market valuations begin to exceed logical limits.  As they are now doing all over the place.

Buckle up and bring the Maalox.

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Forensic Economics: The Dogs of History

Once again, the daily news flow provides some interesting insights into the cyclical nature of human behavior and the emerging Digital World Order (DWO).  In ways that may be useful when looking at macro crowd-level behaviors among humans.

Perhaps even more interesting, from the perspective of historical rhyming, is the tax decisions this week which may set up a showdown between terrestrial and space-based digital assets.

The Digital World Order (DWO) is emerging now.  And it will change your online environment and add costs as it grows.  Even at the U.S. Fed is burying key financial data to make it less accessible to the technically unwashed.

Which we will dig into – along with some very interesting ChartPack views, right after we sing some rhymes of History.

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Can “They” Pull It Out?

“They” being the PowersThatBe in the financial universe.  Main focus is on the ChartPack this morning.  Sure, we were entertained by the J. Powell “fed-speak” but the focus on jobs is likely to be a problem since jobs in America will come at the expense (largely) of jobs elsewhere in the world.  Think Asia.

We have only a few headlines.  Mainly, this is a time to look at the world and see through the hype – like the Tiger Woods story – and look for meaningful data that will drive life going forward.

It’s not popular at the water cooler.  But we’d rather impress “the bank” than “average people.”  Just kinda funny, that way…

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Fixing the World in 3 Deft Moves

A broad look at America’s energy future this morning.  We think a week during which people were in the dark – by the millions – is a pretty good time to relight the discussion about energy.

We considered a discussion of how this week was very much like a Grid Hard Down scenario, but thought better of it.

Instead, we discuss the interplay of electric and hybrid vehicles and discuss some super-insulated home ideas.

First, however, a few headlines and some charts.

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Storm Tactics – A Critique

Some things we got right – a few things wrong.

What ate the key lessons from the second major storm series to hit Texas this year?  Some Surprising learnings.

First though, a look at some headlines – yeah, about Texas – and then into the ChartPack before we “Go outside and “play in the snow…”

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Dependencies and Bug-Out Deluxe

Two items besides a very “toppy looking” market on the agenda today.

One has to do with the critical nature of having the right partner if TSHTF.  While the other is an update for a long-time friend who is updating his bug-out strategies.

So, with Big Winter (*where’d that “climate hype” go?) bearing down, we boil some bean and get after it…

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