The Sweet (But Crooked) Lies of MMT

The U.S. is going down an inflationary path, now.  It’s just a matter of when it gets here and how hard it will bite.

Not only did Congress abdicate its mandated money creation role, but with the Nixon-era slamming of the Gold Window, we have been adrift on a sea of Made Up Policy (e.g. the floating world craps game) since the 1970’s.

As we have been expecting, it won’t end well and this morning we offer some evidence along the way.

But, not without our usual Saturday morning headline review and our ChartPack.
Which, we have to say,  has remained devastatingly useful in playing “hide the sausage” in present market conditions.

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The Replay Marches On: "How Bad Could It Get??

Very.  Roadmap to collapse, anyone? After we kick-around the ADP report and a few headlines, we will lay out a possible track for the next two months.

Two new charts appear with some date ideas and things to watch in the period ahead.

Not a pretty picture, but instead, the kind of thing that has occurred in the past:  When market valuations begin to exceed logical limits.  As they are now doing all over the place.

Buckle up and bring the Maalox.

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Forensic Economics: The Dogs of History

Once again, the daily news flow provides some interesting insights into the cyclical nature of human behavior and the emerging Digital World Order (DWO).  In ways that may be useful when looking at macro crowd-level behaviors among humans.

Perhaps even more interesting, from the perspective of historical rhyming, is the tax decisions this week which may set up a showdown between terrestrial and space-based digital assets.

The Digital World Order (DWO) is emerging now.  And it will change your online environment and add costs as it grows.  Even at the U.S. Fed is burying key financial data to make it less accessible to the technically unwashed.

Which we will dig into – along with some very interesting ChartPack views, right after we sing some rhymes of History.

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Can “They” Pull It Out?

“They” being the PowersThatBe in the financial universe.  Main focus is on the ChartPack this morning.  Sure, we were entertained by the J. Powell “fed-speak” but the focus on jobs is likely to be a problem since jobs in America will come at the expense (largely) of jobs elsewhere in the world.  Think Asia.

We have only a few headlines.  Mainly, this is a time to look at the world and see through the hype – like the Tiger Woods story – and look for meaningful data that will drive life going forward.

It’s not popular at the water cooler.  But we’d rather impress “the bank” than “average people.”  Just kinda funny, that way…

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Fixing the World in 3 Deft Moves

A broad look at America’s energy future this morning.  We think a week during which people were in the dark – by the millions – is a pretty good time to relight the discussion about energy.

We considered a discussion of how this week was very much like a Grid Hard Down scenario, but thought better of it.

Instead, we discuss the interplay of electric and hybrid vehicles and discuss some super-insulated home ideas.

First, however, a few headlines and some charts.

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Storm Tactics – A Critique

Some things we got right – a few things wrong.

What ate the key lessons from the second major storm series to hit Texas this year?  Some Surprising learnings.

First though, a look at some headlines – yeah, about Texas – and then into the ChartPack before we “Go outside and “play in the snow…”

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Dependencies and Bug-Out Deluxe

Two items besides a very “toppy looking” market on the agenda today.

One has to do with the critical nature of having the right partner if TSHTF.  While the other is an update for a long-time friend who is updating his bug-out strategies.

So, with Big Winter (*where’d that “climate hype” go?) bearing down, we boil some bean and get after it…

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Replay Complete!

In our pre-Super Bowl edition, we mainly focus on the ChartPack.  With a functional replay of the 1929 collapse and bounce complete, is there an on-side kick ahead?  Or, are there flags down on the field?

Both possibilities are examined.  After a scan of a few headlines and a look at the week ahead.  Which promises to offer another truckload of pseudo-drama…

After this morning’s first down…which consists of lots of coffee…

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Evolving a Trading Rule Set

Trend Your Friend?  Problem is, which Trend is someone talking about? Today we lay out use of differential trend detection tools. And does it fit with your personal investment style?

Especially when the Buy’ed ’em Fed is rolling with a “desperation cash dash” into markets to play Beat Back the Clock which was, until yesterday setting up for a 55 (trading) day collapse this spring in April.

When failure of the cash-splash reveals, the temporal zone around Presidents Day may become Charmin Week.  But(t) we shall see..

Although the main application is to stocks, this is a discussion that works well in casinos and a lot of other places where there is “choice.”

While we can’t take the “luck out of Chance” we can, at least, figure some ways to back it into the corner a bit.

Which is a longer than usual discussion, but I was asked, so stand by for a flood of ideas.

After a few headlines (like the ADP jobs report) and then a run through this morning’s ChartPack…

Hell yeah!  Let’s create 40% fewer new jobs than January a year ago and hype the living bejesus out of it!!!

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“How to Live on $10,000 a Year, Or Less” Ch. 2

Just couldn’t stop writing or working, after all. Workaholic?  Yah think?  After stepping out of a short trade, a bit early Friday, though taking profits is never a bad thing, I continued working on the update to my book “How to Live on $10,000 a Year, Or Less.”

Pertinent chapter because we talk about economic cycles but not a single math formula. We look at the cyclical nature of Depressions.  And seek understanding of how the various business cycles form a big clockwork.

Which “worked a lot of people over” this week.  In the ChartPack, we’ll tell you how the market is calling the SuperBowl next weekend.

First though, a few headlines and then the ChartPack which continues to deliver very sinister news…

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The “20-Something” Cycle

Today, hardcore economics with a side of woo-woo.  Futures were down hard ahead of the Fed rate pronouncement this afternoon.

Won’t mince words here except to remind all readers that we are in a period of extreme risk when we look at how the run from 2009 to now has paralleled the 1921 to 1929 market blow-off.

Even the crypto’s are in trouble, though we gave you our targets earlier.  With BTC down to $30,897, our call for thousands lower is looking less absurd than some virtualistas would otherwise have believed.

A few headlines and then we’re into the ChartPack, the cycle (which is very interesting) and the woo-woo which blew my socks off…

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Has “Tech” Attacked America?

We  declare World War 3 underway.  And the Battlespace is Everywhere. If you have a device, you are on the battlefield.

Evidence is mounting that America is under attack from within – and without.  It’s a digital war and the A.I. goon squads are under development.

This is warfare not fought by the “usual suspects” though Antifa and extremism are cited by the lackadaisical band of pretenders passing themselves off as “media.”

Like any complex game, that’s one of the beginner levels.  Today, we go one level up.

The concept is not new:  There’s already a lot of speculation on less-than-mainstream sites about a certain billionaire, about Covid as a bio-weapon, and how the Mark of the Beast nano-tech is being injected into formerly free humans.

Can the nanoparticles in CV vaccine do more than just shuttle RNA around?  Not the kind of thing easily checked, is it?

The fear is vaccinations will be required in order to buy or sell.  To travel or leave home. And soon, it may be required to work at United Airlines and other employers.  Already, we hear of healthcare workers being told the shots are mandatory.  Where is the limit?

Some of this sounds fringy, but much of this cuts closer to the bone than comfortable.  Depends which glasses and blue pill or red…

Today, we will do a quick field survey and consider a little-publicized (in fact, almost unknown) work product by a group of military war-gamers in 1996.

In an report that continues to amaze some of its authors, we have evolved warfare from one-on-one human, to armies and from there to….programmers.

Along the way, battlespace once defined by set-piece fortifications (Maginot Line and the Berlin Wall) is now on your phone, on the desktop, and leaking around your firewall.

The shots are being fired, but Tech is the best silencer ever built.

After headlines and the ChartPack, of course. But then the fun begins.

In War-For-All, the battlespace is on every device.

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Live on $10,000 a Year–The Sequel

By far, the most popular book I’ve ever written has been “How to Live on $10,000 a Year, Or Less…” Issued first back in 2005

Thing is, I haven’t updated the book since 2013.  That was the 4th edition.  I reckon it’s time to update it  again.  Thinking – and facts on the ground have changed.  But as we’ll see as this latest edition unrolls, good ideas have a kind of permanence about them.

As a thank you for Peoplenomics subscribers, you’ll get to read the new edition as it flies off the fingers. When complete, the entire document will be in the subscriber library at the top of each master index page. Along with other books I’ve written.

When completed, even if you don’t subscribe, it will be available on the UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics websites for the outrageous sum of  $5-bucks.

The 5th edition will be adding more “time-based perspectives.” Since many of the concepts laid out in the book have been “lived-out” here in the pine forest of East Texas.

Something to Think About:

When I was in high school, I’d bike ride down to the local burger joint with my buddy The Major for a 19-cent cheeseburger. “Dag’s” has long-since disappeared into the culinary sunset.

Today, the inflation-adjusted price of  a 19-cent burger from 1966 is?  $1.57.

If you hit the right big national burger joint on just the right day, you can still find the equivalent of the 19-cent burger today.

But something else peeks out of our thinking here.

It’s not that the basic meat patty has gone through the roof.  It’s that our expectations of a hamburger have. Foolishly most Americans are wedded to the idea that progress is the same as size and other enhancements.

Network television first seen by Ure’s truly on a 13″ black and white Magnavox TV still sucks when viewed on a UHD 65″ in the media room here.  Seeing the problems of progress, yet?

Magnavox was acquired by Philips out of Holland in 1974 after launching the first game console in 1972. (Magnavox Odyssey).  Nintendo?  X-Box?  Johnny-come-lately types.  Still simply adding complexity to another 40-year old cheeseburger.

At the Arches?  What was once a bun, patty, slice of cheese, squirt of mustard and pickle (and still can be at the lower end) is now a “customizable treat.”  Which has piled on not only condiments but expectations.

Second patty is not uncommon.  Here in Texas WhatABurger will do 3 patties and even four if you’re up for it!. You can also add damn near anything.  And to prove it, I ordered a burger with four pieces of bacon on it!

Considered in isolation, this evolving “burger complexity issue” explains a lot about living and expenses.  Yes, we can get three slices of ‘maters, two helpings of onion, jalapeno peppers and BBQ sauce, too, sliding uncontrollably between three patties!  More pickles!

But – like so many areas of Life – is there a real pay-off in terms of quality of Life between the 19-center and today’s ultra-super-Mondo-gonzo-mega burgers?

We have been hypnotized by repetitive marketing campaigns all based on “reach and frequency” to drive the message “needing this kind of super-burger.”  Yet, who questions the simplicity and joy of simple “burgerness?”

This drives a massive  revenue-compensated marketing machine. The cost is between the patties, lol.)  But, does it make us any happier?

Out here isn’t exactly Walden Pond, but we have stepped back far enough from regimented consumption to ask the questions that led to our recent (subscriber) book The 100-year Toaster. I’ll get that out on the public side, one of these days, too.

Updates, observations and lots of additional details in answer to the question “Can I live under $10,000 per year, per person in today’s world?”

The answer is yes…but there’s a book’s worth of caveats and inflation adjustments since 2005 which we will dig into after a few headlines and the ChartPack.  Which continues it’s haunting a haunting question, as well:

Is the Top In?

(An Inflation-adjusted book.  Who’d have believed it?)

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