We needed a tool for test-fitting economic cycle lengths from the American Revolutionary War period. So, here it is. Not to be confused with the Cyclotron in physics.

What? You don’t wake up with software/cycle questions in your head on Saturday morning?  What are you, normal or something?

Before we speak with Abby Normal, a few headlines and the ChartPack will line up how things are. Here on what’s looking suspiciously like a mash-up of WW1, the Crash of ’29, with a side order of WW3.

Which threatens to go even more off the rails over the coming three weeks.

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While we await data, some reflection on where the notion of “five steps to a market move” may be rooted.  One of the most interesting notions in a while (lassoed from my office chair) is the one that says just as people handle Death Grieving with five stations, so too a deep psychological drama is at play in markets, perhaps.

I love this kind of open-ended “test fitting” of ideas to see what works, and what doesn’t.  A kind of nuts and bolts of concept extensions.  Greatly occupying for the ADHD in us all.

Of course, there’s also the matter of Consumer Prices tomorrow which we’ll lead with.  I mean, rather predictable, isn’t it?  That’s the “omics” most people are interested in…

Time to read some tea leaves and coffee grounds…

And run some biorhythms, too, because we may each be the tea leaves and coffee grounds.

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The market decline this week may have marked the end of Wave II.  Which would be, in Elliott Wave counts and trend channels be the rally lasting about 192 days from 2022 lows.  Which was preceded by Wave 1 down from November 8, 2021.

Today, we consider our ChartPack and wonder how far down we could fall.

Not to be a spoiler but market levels half of two week ago levels seems increasingly likely.

What the present waveform suggest is not only purely economic in scope, but will lead into global war.  That is, if history continues with this kind of Rhyming pattern.

This morning, a short summary of how we got here, where trends are pointing.  And how the Fitch downgrade of American treasuries – glum as that was – is likely a “You ain’t seen nothing, yet.”

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“You can’t take it with you” is a common saying as old age and Death approach late in Life.  But, economics argues that might not be the case.

What seems more likely is that there is something we take and we propose that special “something” is what becomes our “currency”
in (or if) there’s an afterlife.

Heady stuff, but we also serve up the practical.  In addition to the ChartPack and an understandably cynical view from seven decades of Observations, we will also keep an eye on what’s coming toward us in the jobs data just beginning its monthly flow.

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Not as profound as Carl Jung’s Dreams, Memories, Reflections.  But a pretty good analog.

A few words about woo-woo work and what came out of some unusual dream work overnight.

But sure, the mundane and the charts, of course…

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Let me give you the end of the article first: The Covid-Climate Dividend is here.  There’s a deafening silence about it from officialdom.  Many moving parts to this. A rollover from hand tools to machines, to computers to A.I. points toward a “useless eaters” problem just ahead.

While wars are waged for property, the right to tax residents, and to create artificial demand for more humans, more war materiel, and ever higher taxes for governments at all levels, they still remain central to the periodic die offs and tilling the Earth for future growth.

See, the problem with interest is that without growth, there’s no story to tell.  No pandering of the “rent on money.” The leech class of investors – taking their outsized shares from the people who actually make things requires periodic rebalancing.

Wars are great economic tools, but only for those at the top of the pile.

But change is in the air. In the flattened forests of Ukraine to the cells where corruption simmers in our own government.

This being Fed Rate Day – FOMC at 2 PM, we’re in a rather pensive mood.  One eye for the clock, the other on our six.

You see, Russia is preparing for mobilization.

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While we are focused on Top Calling this week.  Interesting combination looking ahead. Especially in light of the market weakness Friday going into the close.

We will also take a look at next week’s calendar, celebrate my diet shedding 20 pounds (so far) and ponder if this week was “The Top” of Wave II.

Pour a fresh cup and let’s kick the door in…

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You know the Fooled and Doped Administration has halted public sales of NMN – a potentially life extending supplement, right? What is not being spoken of much is the gross (obscene) violation of medical ethics in play.

Years ago, there was a study on low-dose aspirin, and when the trials showed the intervention worked, the study was busted and the people not getting the low-dose aspirin were given the option of taking it.  The statistical life extension from reduced cardiac risk was that major.

We won’t dwell on the fact that Seniors are going to die ANYWAY so give us what we want.  Instead, we will look where this is all going.

Eugenics fans will be thrilled to see how it’s a major milestone on the road to Merit-Based Life Extension.

Sorry, dear readers, but this is exactly the kind of overreach the government pulled off by patenting many of the marijuana compounds.  Gave them power they didn’t need, and which is certainly NOT in the Constitution.  (Neither was mandatory EXPERIMENTAL SHOTS.

In the interest of full disclosure?  Elaine and I did NOT get The Jab.  But, since Elaine is 80 and I’m quickly closing in on 75, we figure if we want to self-medicate, we have that right. Or, should.

Not after a bunch of Nanny State ass clowns (who decided God made mistakes with His Flora) should usurp our freedom to choose.

You can choose an abortion but they’re moving toward control of healthy aging.  Though, we’ll admit, with less than 10-years until Social Security blows up (and benefits will have to come down at least 25 percent) we know there’s an actuarial excuse out there somewhere.

‘Pay To Live is on the way!  And, as we’ll explain, a Chinese-style Social Credit Score is likely to determine your lifespan in the very-near future. Maybe even more than diet and exercise once you get up into our age range.

After the ChartPack and housing data, of course.

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Investors – deep down – know one of the fundamental rules of money is “Must be present to Win.” Which means there’s a reason to spend profits now and then on getting healthy as possible.

This week, we focus on a key new idea that has come out of research into life extension.

But while tech, and our personal experiments seem to be working very, very well, there’s a problem.  And that is simply whether the World can support a major increase in the population’s life expectancy at this time.

We are going to look at both parts of the story, this week and next.  With some of the latest science and how it can be applied at the personal level.  Then, next week, we’ll consider the government policy implications.

For now, I’ve shelved working on my novel Ancient Children because there’s been an almost daily increase that the “plot” envisioned in the book will play out IRL (in real life) long before the book would ever pay off.

Headlines, the ChartPack and a spot of tea are at the head of the line, though.  Before we get into the weekend’s mini focus section.

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Pick your poison today!  We have a fascinating stew of intermingled economic classes to unravel.  There is, of course, Behavioral Economics (Prime Day 2).  Then we have International Economics.  Runaway bubble market economics.  And for good measure, let’s throw in Battlefield Economics – which is becoming a bounding layer forcing both sides into escalation.

Bring your own cluster bombs, pom-poms, cheerleaders and fear bleeders. A fine time will be had by all.

And even grander time awaits in today’s Focus piece.  We look into knowledge compression and how we’ve been “shrinking time on task” from what people learn to Winner’s Checklists.  File under “Need, read, and succeed.

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If – or likely when – wider war shows up, readers are already fearing a second-phase of the American die-off will arrive.  Reader Stephen2’s comments on drug supply chains are spot-on.  In war supply chains are likely to crumble. Rationing.  Even of meds.

Losing weight is hard, but dying could be harder.

Today we also tackle some recent news headlines and a precise look at the arrival of our expected rally Friday in financial markets and how we played it going by.

After a few “weight, warming, and warring notes on times ahead.

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While not offering advice, I did mention to subscribers I’d gone short last Friday. Odd things happen in the long wave economic cycles.  Positions of power and influence change.  With it, nations rise – and as we fear out west – they can also fall.

This will leave the U.S. to reprise the role of Great Britain in the Great Depression, which they suffered, as well.  While it’s not time to put in a potato crop, start saving tires and winter clothing, it is important to have a “feel” for how overly dependent Globalism/ists have made America on least-cost manufacturing meccas.

Which is why this morning we are focused on where markets could be headed next.  When events we have been eyeing could turn into something Bigly/Hugely later this month.  Circle July 27th – Av 9 – and let’s see how it rolls.

We also offer timing congrats to The Economics Fractalist, as well.

Holiday memories are all we have for the next 61-days. Between Av 9 and China bond payments, we wonder what kind of “celebration” Labor Day might be.

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Some major SupCo decisions this week and we find them most agreeable. But they are not popular, depending on which one(s) you talk about.

Today our main focus, being a holiday weekend, is on the charts.  We are eyeing the coming few weeks to see if the end of the Wave 2 rally will become apparent.

If it does, as The Economic Fractalist advises, the chance for a dramatic nonlinearity could go nonlinear.

That fact we went short 7-minutes before Friday’s close doesn’t mean we’re sure of trouble ahead.  It could just indicate we should seek an intervention from Gamblers Anonymous.

That decision should be more easily made next weekend.

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