Modeling the Ugly Side of Demographics

Other than email proclivities, nonsensical personal attacks based on sex, and all the other crap that goes into this election cycle, there is a fascinating difference between candidates in Tuesday’s election when it comes to immigration.

This morning we look into some of the mechanics of demography, model out some futures, and propose a startling answer that believe me, you won’t like if you’re over 50.

Think of this as a late Halloween report…

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Time for a Serious Trading Discussion

Right up front:  This morning’s report may not be of much interest if you don’t actively manage your own finances.

On the other hand, if you do, you will see insides what goes on in my head during an active trading day like we had yesterday and which seems likely to follow through into this morning ahead of this afternoon’s Fed announcement.

Is it politics?  No, this is more the technical expression of a lot of major trends and how this week ends will give us a lot of insight into which way the next year could be lining up.

So bean up and let’s dig in, shall we?

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Change of Plans: Broken Web II

Our pick-up on the public discussion of market action in Friday’s UrbanSurvival column will have to wait because of massively more important events in the Hillary Clinton saga.  And yes, markets are likely to follow through on the downside Monday.

This morning, I will show you why there’s reason to suspect that Hillary’s case being re-opened by the FBI Friday may actually, in a strange way, be tied to the recent Dyn hack attack a week ago, and how a take-down of the West may actually be threatened if another Clinton makes it to the Oval Office.

Oh, and we’ll explain how “early voting” is always a very, very bad idea.

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Care Wreck: The Future On Rails

We focus on two major economic exercises (in futility) around here.  One is making money in the stock market with our rather unorthodox approach.  The other is a bit of futuring based on understanding the consequences of contemporary economic data.

This morning we are pleased to report some major harmony is evolving between these two approaches.  And, as I’ll show you this morning, when things line up this well, we can evolve a pretty good vision of the future based on economic expectations.

While we will have to await secular developments to fill in the necessary voids, the future is, using this approach, already on rails for 2017.  End of the world? 

This is really a kind of “part 1” because this weekend we might make some future projections based on behaviors of “fifth waves.”  For this morning, let’s just “ride the rails” a bit.

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Ripcord: Toughest Questions of Retirement

Regardless of age, with luck you will have to face the two toughest questions of retirement:  When to actually retire and then how to find the “right” place to live.

Thanks to a Florida reader, this week we look at the problem as an email exchange with the reader where we kick around some of the ways to approach the decisions.

Coffee on…

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Scenarios: Election-Day Seismic War

Want something to worry about – I mean other than the big “Hillary Out” in the Enquirer (on news stands today)?

We do a lot of modeling and test-fitting of bits of news – then let the mind wander to see what might be on the horizon.

This morning we offer a shockingly comprehensive “piece-fit” of how the Russians could effectively turn the U.S.A. into a third world country without firing a single shot over our territory.  What’s more, the attack scenario would also have a high level of “plausible deniability.”

Top off the cup, but you might want to make it decaf for this one.

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What the Fed Missed: Multi-core Economics

Eventually, this concept will have to emerge from the lab and into the light of economic day.

But this morning we lay out an interesting treatise on how the Fed revealed in Janet Yellen’s Friday speed that they are “perception limited” by conventional economics.

Long article this morning, so three cups may be needed.

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The Devil’s in the Triangbles

OK…serious about making money, right?  My net portfolio value was up 3.86% Tuesday.

Did you see it coming?  It was exactly what we were talking about in last Saturday’s report which I told you (usefully and in advance)  “After, that is, we take a look at the charts and a number of “triangle formations” which are grouped in today’s ChartPack as “Devil’s Triangles.”

What happened Tuesday was the breakdown through the bottom of a triangle.  So is it over?

Read on…The Devil’s moved from the details to the triangles.

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The "Light Crown" Project

With the presidential race degenerating quickly into an adults only, over 21, and ID please, we head off into a further experimental region of the emerging science of photo-biomodulation therapy (PBMT if you want to PubMed it) with some interesting historical speculation.

After, that is, we take a look at the charts and a number of “triangle formations” which are grouped in today’s ChartPack as “Devil’s Triangles/”

Other than reminding you that the presidential wannabe debate Sunday should involve an R-17 rating, we will stay clear of politics which has turned the art of “hitting below the belt” into something of a national perversion – or pastime – we’re not sure which.

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Solving for X, Solving for $

This morning we’re really focused on the market which is about to enter (late this week and early next) one of our “crash zones.”  These happen 55-days after significant market peaks.  Full Moon comes along with it just to kick it up a notch.

A couple of words on where we are and how to use that information seems like a reasonable thing to do, regardless of whether you are a fiendish bear or a rabid bull.

Something as simple as a small retirement account, or mega millions – it doesn’t matter your financial position in life.  The idea around here is focus on ways to make it better in any regard…

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Planning a "Disaster Room" (Part 1)

We have a number of factors that are coming together that force us to think through an earthen home addition.

Whether you are talking radiation resistance, food storage, an additional bedroom, family day room for when the grid goes during a hot summer in the south, or an additional armory space…a “Disaster Room” is making sense. 

You’ll see it as we run through some headlines this morning and the chart…

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Losing Our Past, Dooming Our Future

So much for the Hillary Rally (“Rallary“) the market put on Tuesday.  This morning we’re back to the bull and bear slugfest in earnest..

Futures were up a tad, but we’re really in a trading range as you’ll see in this morning’s ChartPack.

Our main concern now is not so much about the looming (early 2017) recession.  It’s about the horrific debt burden on young people from things like education debt, that will dramatically slow, or even prevent the next recovery.

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Markets Face "Floptober" Says Reality Ratio

This will take a bit of discussion to fully understand.  But off in the background, I use a series of indicators and one of these relates to bond pricing as a function of stock prices.  It typically will show a peak (and / or passing) well before the stock market follows suit.

Which, says the indicator now, should result in a mighty painful “Floptober” to come.

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