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My discussion (premature to the narrative) of a 55 MPH speed limit in Friday’s Urban column caused some consternation.  “Oh, Ure has sold out to the Dark Side!” and sentiments like “Ure’s an idiot – we did that already…” we typical.

My intent was not to disavow speed.  I’m an adrenaline junkie from the get-go.  Something passed on to the “resuscitate dead people” and “walk into burning buildings” which took root in my son.  When he isn’t feeding his adrenaline addiction by jumping out of airplanes.

Unfortunately, however, the problem of auto speed limits, vehicle costs, safety, fuel consumption, and carbon emissions, in our longer view of humans is very complex and one of those “can’t have your cake and eat it, too…” affairs.

But it gets us back to our simple way of living.  Sailing. Working a garden in a serious way this week.  Relying on power tools in the solar-powered shop.

Because if you don’t understand part of the “cost of a future” will be resource stripping and a change of lifestyle and degradation of speed expectations, you haven’t been paying attention.

A few more thoughts of this because we too love speed.  If that’s all you got out of the column (Ure’s a fuddy-duddy) my drive to brevity buried the meaningful point.

A check of wars and charts and then the Time of Terrible Choices.  Which we’re only at the very beginning of right now.

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A broad-spectrum discussion of war today:  Causes, motivations, and public reaction.  But more importantly of all, personal anticipatory activities that can improve the odds of living through this most stressful of periods.

In addition to a little “news from the front” what we’ll focus on will be broadly applicable when the “next shoe drops.”  That, we reckon, will be either an Israeli strike on Iran, or the Chinese re-acquisition of Taiwan.

Somewhere in there, we have to assess the impact of the Biden administration’s “build back better” propaganda.  Which may be bearing fruit in today’s ADP Jobs report just out. +475k.

So much to cover plus the latest Aggregated market views in our ChartPack series, as well.

Time to load ’em up and head ’em  out…

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There is always opportunity in the midst of chaos, even with our Aggregate Trading indicator.  We used it to spot in advance the big move which would come later in the session.

And we took snapshots of how it evolved over time. Very useful indicator.

This morning, we discussion not only this useful tool, but also how the Aggregate Indicator is dowsing the way ahead for us.

After a few news items about the possible fulfillment of Nostradamus prophesies and the twice-weekly ChartPack.

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Is there a hidden history to meta-materials? About how the future could be defined by them? Could a materials analog to A.I. might even be machine-printable? Off on a quest for new meta materials.

“Why now,” you may be wondering. “Don’t we know there is a war on?”

Yes, of course.  But wars are interesting technology periods and WW II and the spike in UFOs right after?  Gives us something to ponder outside of Europe during what we’d have to call Putin’s “first consolidation” phase.

Rather than paw through mundane housekeeping chores, this sounded like a much-needed break.  War and rigged markets?  Old, well-worn tunes throughout history.

“But where UFOlogy Meets Wall Street?  Really?”

Yeah…really.

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As we watch the potential count-down clock to WW III, a discussion of time risk seems in order.  Not that we can do a damn thing about it.  It’s just that we have been watching events in Ukraine closely since last November.  And it has come down to this weekend for my “fish & chips bet” with one of my daughters.

My actual birthday is the marker, so we need to get out of “birthday weekend” with a chance of peace and no tanks rolling west in order for U.S.-Russian diplomatic talks next Wednesday.  Biden said that if there’s action this weekend, it will mean the door on peace has been slammed shut.

A few “headlines from the front” to tee up the day and then a discussion of how utterly devastating 2022 and beyond could be for financial markets as we seem ready to follow the Great Depression Trail.

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As something of a perma-Bear I am frequently found playing the short side of markets; betting things will get worse, not better.

No, I don’t suffer from depression, except insofar as we all do in a “do-nothing economy.”  Nor do we cower for fear of the future.

Still, being short – being right – and getting paid – and getting settlement – are four separate financial processes. In order to make money on the short side of markets, all four must be done in proper sequence.

Each has quirks you’d better know about if you go messing around shorting markets.  This is never financial advice, per se.  Rather it’s a discussion of useful points to remember when “Figuring to get rich off the outbreak of World War III.”

Which we’ll get into after a few headlines and the morning’s ChartPack which is showing some odd formations to consider…

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Although we had been pulling for a rally to appear Friday, markets sank and with it, odds of semi-global war in coming weeks and months increases. Except, few media are yet differentiating the role of digital partisans in what could be a “‘world-redefining change period.”

The pending Euro War, pressures on Taiwan, and of course the ongoing dance around the Leviathan oil and gas field off Syria all figure.  But we have concerns about the future health of the Internet.  Think a virus lockdown was bad, try going a few weeks “Transaction-Free.”

Mainly – since it’s Saturday – we will keep it a quick read and mainly the charts.

Yet, these too are important, and we issue first a reminder on market hysteresis…

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Where we ask “What will constitute “value” or “storehouse of value” 20-years from now? Once upon a time, this was such a simple damn question.

But, with the rate of change changing and technology obsoleting whole segments of “work” – we have to raise our heads up once in a while and ask the obvious – but seldom asked – where to park savings so they will appreciate?

It was so simple once:  A good house, a good spouse, and a good job.  Every consider finding any of those, lately?

After a few headlines, war-checks, and the ChartPack.  Which has the Bulls waving flags early…

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After putting on a good show part of Friday, markets weakened at the close.  And with the opening of the Beijing Olympics, we’re only 13-days from the wrap-up of events there.

Already, though, bullets are flying in Ukraine.  Not a lot of ’em, but enough to tell markets “This problem may not be going away.”

This morning, since we do mainly our ChartPack on Saturday’s, we’ll look at where markets are and where they could be by the time the Winter Games wrap up.

At which point, we will have two heavy factors weighing on markets: Putin’s action timing in Ukraine and Xi’s timing in Taiwan.

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We need to focus on Luck, once in a while.  Any discussion of Personal Finance that doesn’t include heavy weighting to Luck is absent a solid foundation.  Should be obvious to anyone who understands statistics and the long, deep schism between Religious and Reductionism.

More importantly is the matter of how event in physics are driving the world toward some earth-shaking revelations.  But these will come slowly.  Mass consciousness takes a while to “change then regain new momentum.”

Today we start this series of nerdographs about the MWI and a society-wide move towards the Ultimate Reconciliation Event.  (Suspicion of how that abbreviates?  You have gained 3-IQ points.)

Before that discussion, however, there are matters of the new Jobs data from ADP just out.  Then a few headlines – yes, war still lurks in our future – and then the Charts.  which for now are trying to break out of a real slump notched in January.

Strong coffee and a crisp view of things ahead is our first stop.

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As uncomfortable as 2021 was, 2022 is still setting up to be even worse.  This as shortages, a trucker’s convoy over Covid, and changes in seasonal weather appear. On top of Russia proximity to Ukraine and Taiwan jitters over what follows the Games.

In the meantime, markets seem to have genuinely lost even the last signs of rationality.

A few introductory items to get out of the way first, and then into the ChartPack.  Where another “running of the Bears” took place with gusto Friday.

Really, the good news is Russia is not likely rearming Cuba, now according to latest reports.  The bad news?  Odessa Monday.

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Personal Hysteresis and Latency Planning. Which is totally worth  (verging on absolutely  necessary) considering when markets are running hard and fast while we’re all trying to figure out how to make “the most” out of what have turned into very uncertain times.

We’ll begin with some basics of “cause and effect” then move to a discussion of the difference between latency and hysteresis.

How these apply to managing your personal life is seldom taught in schools, though Life’s a fine teacher for the attentive student.

First, a few headlines and then? Oh yeah! Them Charts. Wowzers.  Run them Bears is on today!

Do stock market trends foretell the future?  Within a set of bounding limits?  Yes, afraid so…

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WFA (word frequency analysis) time as we assess the week’s damage to markets.  When headlines begin to appear on major (MSM) websites like Drudge, we know enough to be on our toes for a turn…

The constant chatter, however, is only one indicator of the changing relationship of “fiat” to Reality.  The overnight dip of BTC under $35,000 (briefly) is another indicator to be incorporated into our future view.

Only a few headlines this morning, because the ChartPack commentary is long and kinda complicated…

If you’re a bear, though, pay attention.

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