george@ure.net

Now Arriving: Hard Times Economics

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This past Thursday, in an UrbanSurvival report, I mentioned several key factors that will likely usher in the return of “hard times economics.”  To be sure, it’s a general umbrella kind of label, but it’s a fair one given that working hours may be set for pending collapse as employers begin to reduce the workweek to the threshold (30 hours) below which employees are really “on their own for healthcare.”  Then I mentioned the drought that continues to engulf California, and with it, the likelihood that the Central Valley and south (San Francisco down to San Diego) may encompass the New Dust Bowl (NDB).  This morning I thought it would be useful to highlight from the practical day-to-day aspects of living in the new Hard Times.  After coffee while we can still afford the elixir of morning…

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Davos: Danger, and Devolution

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As Davos is getting underway, we pause this morning to look at what may be the most-overlooked aspect of the concentration of power in the “hands of the few” namely massive changes in the traditional “span of control” concept in management.  It seems such an innocent thing on the surface, but then so did Lizzie Borden, I suppose. We’ll cut to the heart of things after a few headlines…

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Trending Out the Future

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Two things to talk about this morning, since we’re way ahead of the California Drought which has become a big deal, as we expected it would:  One is how the Millennial mindset and new minimalism may work against Boomers trying to unload property for years to come.  And the second is an assessment of west coast port data.  But, before we look under those carpets, let’s pick up our drought discussion that we forecast would pop in last weekend’s report…

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Do We Really Need Government?

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At least as we now know it…  In many of my recent UrbanSurvival and Peoplenomics columns, I have asked whether there isn’t a Terrible Vortex ahead, somewhere a year or two out, when misguided government policies all come home to roost at the same time? The question is particularly pertinent because of recent disclosures about governments spying on civilians (non-suspects) in an effort to do for the present day with computers, what the McCarthy Era did for rabid anti-communists one long-wave economic cycle ago.  As usual, we try not to ask questions we don’t already know the answers to, but not without coffee first…and then we’ll get down to whatever happened to Robin Hood and since when did robbing ‘hoods take become acceptable?  Time for a large helping of “Business Process Reengineering” directed toward government…

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Left Field Alert: California Exodus?

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Have you ever wondered what would happen if a major state – like California – just had to up and quit doing business in the ways it always had?  What would be the impacts?  That’s the question we ponder this morning as we look at a possible “left field event” (black swan or outlier is also used) that may be developing right now.  It’s also a story of political intrigue involving a frog – and maybe someone behind the scenes running an agenda.  First, however coffee and munchies as we spin up the brainerator for weekend use…

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Meet the Video Version of 9-1-1

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Thanks to Peoplenomics.com subscribers, we have the resources to every so-often actually pursue a new idea.  This morning we roll out a new concept:  How to turn every-day cell phones into crime fighting tools that may even be more effective than hand-guns.  We’ll be sharing this one with UrbanSurvival readers and trying to promote the idea more widely beginning Friday morning.  But this morning, in addition to the website announcing the concept, a short discussion about the “method of invention” by which anyone can come up with great solutions to very difficult problems.  After some headlines and a check of how our trading model is doing, of course.

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That UGLY Gold Question

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A buddy of mine called this week and was wondering where to put a few bucks (OK, with three zeros after the significant digit to the left of the decimal point) because he’s not liking what he’s seeing on the horizon.  Unfortunately, I told him the truth – as I saw it.  It’s not a pretty picture, so I suppose we should start with a gentle cup of coffee, see if the glaciers have covered Ohio yet, and then look at some charts and indicators after we warm up a bit…that’s when we’ll get into some serious “trader talk.” While that might sound boring, let me ask you something:  Is making money really boring?

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Coast to Coast Reader Notes

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A few words about CAP – Computed Aided Prediction

What’s a web bot? 

  • Term first used commercially to describe “central control software for controlling the operation of an automatic utility meter reader system comprised of utility meters interconnected via the Internet” by MU Net of Lexington, Mass
  • Common use in 2000 as short for “internet /or/ web robot”
  • Wikipedia: “a software application that runs automated tasks over the Internet.”

Current Approaches:

  • Astrology (oldest)
  • Religious or drug experience
  • Language shift studies
  • Word-frequency analysis (change) (with fine structure-constant or without)
  • Indicator phrase studies
  • Time-referencing language studies
  • Cycle analytics (May be WFA/FSc related)
  • Search queries
  • …and combinations in conjunction with expert/learning systems

What Works Best?

All have hits and misses….which is why its such and interesting field…there is no standard scoring system yet.

The problem is if you forecast everything in a report, one or two right doesn’t balance off 900 wrong.  You need to look at the statistics of predictions made total versus predictions come true over a set timeframe.  Otherwise, it’s not really a valid prediction system.

How does Nostracodeus.com Work?

  • Word-frequency shift in specified target groups.
  • Example:  Define 2 Fukushima Groups:
    • One group is alarmist – [we should all be dead by now.  Since we’re all going to die anyway, to predict death at other than a more precise manner is not useful]
    • One group is engineers – who are engineering a solution.  [They may indeed engineer a solution, but even when they win/it works, the alarmist group will claim victory.]
    • Approach: Monitor the two groups over time and observe current developments
    • Weigh shifts in events and data then project forward from there.

What does Nostracodeus Look Like?

image Two views of it in operation.  First, this is the  pre-run main screen:

There are a number of set-up buttons that should be explained first.  One of these is where you set your list of starting pages.  If you were doing news sites, you might include CNN or BBC, or Al Jazeera, or whatever.

And you can configure your own dictionaries, keywords and core concepts using something we call “indicators.”  An example of an indicator might be a phrase is “threated to…”  If a new country starts to use an indicator term like this, and there is a conditional word too (“unless” for example, then as you’re reading through the data you can make a note that conflict potentials are rising.

As you can see, you can have 15 mission.  So if you were a producer at Coast for example, you could have a UFO.  And you might want an archeology mission, and so forth.  And then you could print out and compare the goings on.  And if you’re just reading the results, you can then like on the source link in the report and it will open up the page of interest.

image So here is what the main screen when running and it looks like this:

As you can see, the run shown here is 522 pages analyzed out of 2317 which are in that mission.

When the run is complete, you simply go to the reports page and that’s where you can look at how the language falls out.

How Does Future Arise?

  • Future is a shared resource
  • The future is an arbitrage between the concrete/sequential  and random/abstract
  • Data sets (quantitative data) is concrete/sequential
  • Emotional shift tends toward random/abstract
  • The future that arises (other than geological accident) is an arbitrage between data and emo’s

What Makes Prediction Difficult?

  • Simply:  Placing bets on the arbitrage outcome.
  • Core Concept:  Global Mass consciousness is going through the same kind of psychological development that individuals go through

Homework Project

Using Google news search, test a number of “future words”

Examples:

“due Friday” reveals an Italian delegation will be in Iran tomorrow.

“next week: reveals Jim Caldwell is likely to be interviewed by the Redskins for a coaching job,  near zero temps will arrive in Chicago.  Looks like a band of record cold in the Midwest.  There will also be a no confidence vote in Libya Sunday on the Ali Zeidan government.  John Kerry will be in the Middle East…

One of the headlines next week will likely be the discussion about spinning off Detroit’s water department for money to help the city with its bankruptcy…

Enjoy!

Who Will Have Work in 2022?

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We’ve laid the ground work in a couple of recent Peoplenomics reports (“Tax Robotics: Unwrapping the Future” and “Taxing Thoughts: Fighting the Wrong War.”)  The first report deals with the new technologies such as 3D printing that will continue to impact manufacturing and then there is the ongoing destruction of labor demand by ever-increasing levels of factory automation.  Then we look at the problem of funding government’s various roles via the income tax on humans, but not machines, in the “Taxing Thoughts” report.  Here, we learn, among other things, that excluding retirement programs and miscellaneous income, the government gets about 74% of its revenue from the personal income tax. (*excluding the pension game and some other asterisks)  Today we look at what seems likely to happen in the future as these trends collide.  Interest-bearing/compounding capitalism is about to collide with a world of finite resource and the results – like those old train wreck movies – should be a real sight to behold!

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Taxing Thoughts: Fighting the Wrong War

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Peoplenomics this weekend is being posted in two parts as we continue our exploration of the idea that we’re fighting the wrong wars.  Rather than right/left, it really may reduce to who owns the means of production and who owns the capital.  One thing is clear; it ain’t you and me.   We’ll get to that just as soon as we review some of the headlines and then work around to our proposal to tax robotics.

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