george@ure.net Want to have a little fun and do some serious brainwork? Pick a country (any country) in the world where you think there could be a revolution in the next 20-30 years. That’s what we do this morning and come up with a surprising answer. And no, it’s not the USA; it is somewhere else but fairly important. Before we get into darts and Molotov’s, though, a few headlines to wake up the mind….
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This morning we present the first of two parts of how technology seems to exhibit a 35-37 year periodicity, which has tremendous social and economic implications. The process begins with a discussion of how media “hems in” decision-making by policymakers, compares media density and rollout times between radio, television (and cable) and the Internet and proposed what’s likely ahead. Next, we consider analogs between the 1929-1932 decline and more recent events of the Housing Bubble collapse. And from here (in part 2 Saturday) we will stir it all up and see what the ongoing socioeconomic revolution looks like. But before we dig in, some lighter fare in the form of morning headlines and a check of how our Trading Model is doing (just fine, but with additional details.)
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Markets being closed for the holiday, our comments today will be brief as we’ll be considering the key metric that any customer of any organization gets to ask – any time and anywhere. Sure, we pour untold billions into defense, and yeah – maybe you can’t put a dollar value on it – but this being Memorial Day, we ask anyway: Are we getting our monies worth? I think I can show you convincingly that military might doesn’t come from the checkbook. It comes from what’s between our ears.
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I don’t often mention my little sister who retired from Boeing HR a few years ago, but she’s got an absolutely fascinating job in her “semi-retired” state working with people who have serious hoarding issues. This week, we had a discussion of what makes a hoarder, and what does not, and we’ll discuss the economics of it and outlook this morning. While it’s true that “not everyone has to be a Minimalist” hoarding dysfunction comes in all kinds of flavors and with it (and here’s where it gets interesting) comes the question about where prepping fits. So pull up some coffee (and your breakfast MRE) and sitcherbuttdown. Gonna do us some housekeeping between the ears.
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A couple of really neat ideas – concepts at this stage – to kick around. But they may be very useful thought tools in the future. And they lead us to an evolving area of research that will likely lead the world in some unexpected directions, or the sort falling out of headlines even today. It’s the hidden dynamic of corporate computational feudalism.
This “world-changer” came to light from studying the problem of “making money” and how almost everyone on the planet has been harnessed, one way or the other, into a global financial system. Sure, that’s obvious. But this morning we have a couple of ideas to kick around that go to the very core of just what that means. After a few calisthenics of the headline sort to get us rolling…
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Over the past couple of weeks we’ve been working around to some of the deep, dark secrets of how the economy really works. The stuff that doesn’t make it into the 5-o’clock news shows. The one that explains how, rather simply, the Fed can print money like a house afire, and still not have inflation running through the roof. All fine theory, of course. But what’s the point, right?
This morning you’re going to learn to think in an unconventional way about what I call “The America Platform.” Just like major software management tools, we can look at our own future, and that of “The America Platform,” with the same mindset as a software implementation team on a BPR project (business process re-engineering). In this sense, “financial prepping” is a series of “use cases” in software design. Or, you could considers it a personal financial stress test.
After some coffee, we’ll wrap it all up and make soup of it. Included is a PowerPoint that you can share with your spouse and family members, too, if you’re so inclined.
If all goes well, you’ll nail the future, instead of t’other way around; the way your you get “nailed.” After coffee and headlines, as is our custom.
Reader Note: If you don’t have PowerPoint for this morning’s slide show (and worksheets) you can download OpenOffice free and use the compatible presentation tool there.
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How much financial prepping you can do is obviously limited, especially if you’re a “small fry” and you’ve been used to moving money around seeking a good rate of return. But a funny thing happens in this morning’s report. We dig far enough into the financial underpinnings of the economy to discover why gold and silver have not yet taken off to the upside…something that all by itself would be worth this morning’s column. After coffee and crumpets, ‘natch.
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A number of readers – and even our visiting house guest – asked this week about whether there would really be a “…collapse of the US Dollar on July 1st?
In a word, “NO! Not likely.” But we’ll explain this as a “matter of FACTA” in due course.
But the fact that people even have questions about such an eventuality gets us into a “teaching mood” and so a number of quick “lessons from the newsroom” on how to sort out fear-mongering from reality are in order. Maybe a simple set of rules so the next time you have a question like “Is the dollar collapsing in 2-months?” you’ll be able to answer it without help.
While I put on my best James Spader impression (spoofing the series “The Blacklist”) and come up with a snappy quote, we’ll nosh and bean as we prick a few headlines, or was that headline a few…. Then onto the morning digital Danish: Nine rules to avoid being an idiot.
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Governments are funny things. While often pretending to “protect” citizens, they often supervise something much more sinister. When folks aren’t looking, to cite the example of the Native Americans, they seize land shared by a community for tens of thousands of years. Then they move out the first people and install new (and generally white) faces from European ancestry who are agreeable to developing the land in a certain way and comply with taxes on it.
The “disenfranchise one set of people” game looks to be playing out – at least for some Jews – in eastern Ukraine as well.
And that would be fine making headlines as it is (and rising resentment), except now there’s a global attack of a different sort underway. Not in the headlines. More subtle but potentially move devastating: Under the guise of “fighting terror” government has now granted itself “regulatory authority” to track how you spend money. All part of an invisible fight that the Mainstream Media isn’t talking about: The attack on cash.
This morning we dig into this a ways, after headlines and much future focus on aircraft carriers, charts, and coffee…
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Due to travel plans and local commitments, our usual report will be extremely abbreviated today. However, since many people are interested in our Trading Models, the ChartPack section is available this morning. Yes, this morning’s report was done in a timely manner as always, but this is one of those odd “Server ate my homework” mornings… 4-hours of research and writing gone overnight when my server decided it would restart to apply an update. Expect a longer than usual report Wednesday as a result. Now, a few headlines, coffee, and those charts…
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Every so often I accumulate ideas, clusters of this-and-that’s which don’t fit neatly under a single heading. Timewave Zero’s follow-ons post 2012 fit this mold. So rather than spend (waste?) a lot of time coming up with a logical framework for “hanging it all together” I thought instead this morning I’d share what amount to a series of “Post-Its” for folks like us who are trying to make a buck, minimize our tax consequences, and then hide it from the ravages of inflation and deflation. Oh, and along the way make a few more bucks. So today we look at “novelty,” “change,” and “release periods.” After headlines and coffee, of course.
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This morning a few “notes in the journal” about how life (finance/tech/rural) is changing and how our strategies may change as well as aging shows up and world conditions are anything but stable. Think of this morning’s notes a waypoints along the path.
Worthwhile thinking points with the world at the edge of global war. The attack on Net Neutrality, in this context, is my long-predicted replay of the government seizure of the radio waves via the Communications Act of 1934 come to life. You might remember, my friend Gaye at www.backdoorsurvival.com and I wrote a short book titled “11-Steps to a Strategic Life” which is available on Amazon. But times are changing so we’ve begun thinking about an update because stability in life is starting to hit the fan.
Changes in conditions are likely to change the definition of “the good life” in large and chaotic ways. Some notes on where that leads makes sense. After we get some coffee, of course.
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10-years to dark is about it. Maybe less. By my reckoning, depending on the resource wars. Your not hearing about it because some greedy bastards are planning to bend you over, but good on the way to the reality of Peak Oil. Peak Oil is real, so if you’re patient, what is going on with the stock market is just marking time until really bad impacts of a modest economic recovery show up. Then energy prices are set to double thanks to some energy traitors in Kansas and the cost of money. What comes with higher interest rates, a growing appetite for oil, and oh yes – the Ben Dover part: a freeze up in how many new rigs are going out to work oil. There goes production and shortly after, the Dollar. So as we make up for a slacker time last week prior to Easter, this is a bit of crucial forward thinking to get right. We’ll sink and swim in the stuff after a helping of overnight headlines and a check of our Trading Model.
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