george@ure.net

God, I love history.

Not only have we been able to use it to line our pockets with modest (-1 to +3% per week) gains  (or tiny losses)  in the stock market, but in addition, we even know where to look for “the next generation of tech.”

So if this really is the analog to the 1928-1929 period, what was the New Tech that showed up (predictably) right at the pinnacle of the Roaring Twenties?

Why television, of course! Heard of it?  See Philo Taylor Farnsworth and 1927 here.

So it’s hardly surprising that “Responsive Video” is creeping into the public mind around the edges now.

But before we futurize, let’s monetize.  With some trend-drivers in the news and of course, that marvelous system of looking at markets we call the Aggregate Approach.

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What is a business model?

What constitutes a threat to a business model?

And why would you give a rip?

Seems a reasonable set of questions – the answers just ahead as soon as a few headline, the ChartPack, and the coffee is done.

The good news?

Business model (threats) are more than just an investment tool.  They can also save your career from long-term disaster.

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A beginner’s Guide today.  How much to get started, how to pick an online brokerage, and a ton more including how to make – and read – your own charts.

One of our readers – a Millennial at that – asked if I could whip up such a simple, step-by-step guide to how to invest in the stock market. Something for newbies.

Since I wrote the Millennial’s Missing Manual, and that eBook – which will be on Amazon any minute – is all about processes and how you can do anything ever done by another human (if you can find their recipes), why not apply the same thing to the stock market?

Easy-peasy, right?

So this morning we will dispense with the headlines – since you can find the flow of news updated every few minutes from our news/RSS feed page over here, we will combine everything about investing into a series of really easy-to-follow steps.  There is also a reading list – the mechanical part is simple.  The strategies is where the gold is buried.

Who knows?  Maybe even my own Gen-x kids will find it worth reading…

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This morning, since it’s a holiday weekend and all, we will focus on the charts and outlooks for next week’s action which will very much hinge on military developments between now and the Monday open.

We will also consider the problem of ‘disappearing investment options.”  Sure, things like real estate are still selling, but to the long term, strategic investor, there’s always got to be an exit strategy in view.

And right now, some of those are going mirage-like.

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We dispense with all the usual formatics this morning to deal with the One Question that Matters.

What’s the right move at this precise time and place that a person trying to preserve their retirement accounts and such MIGHT consider given where we are in the Economic Long Wave?

It’s a complex question and while we don’t offer financial advice, this morning’s discussion will give you all kinds of things to consider.

Indeed, an  unusual report this morning, but then again, these are definitely unusual times.

As always, I tend to err on the side of caution – and freely admit that by doing so we may sacrifice a few potential gains.  But it all comes down to what your age is and how much time you have to recover from a major set-back should you get things spectacularly wrong?

Thus, a longish discussion about perspectives and where the Long Wave seems to hold us at present day.

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I  rocked it today.  Not a big win, but this time I conscientiously journaled every move, since a number of subscribers have asked about my thinking processes between the Peoplenomics Oscillator updates at mid week and on weekends.

You asked….so here’s how we rolled. 

Thought by thought.

Blew out of my long position, if even for 20 hours, when an urge to exit hit me shortly after the open on Monday.

This afternoon, the journal of the thinking process  – on the off chance you might find it useful and/or interesting…

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A couple of big items on the agenda this morning.  In the ChartPack section we work through what some of the initial Syria results are in terms of market impacts.

Then, in the Focus piece, we consider how homes and car prices might fare in the opening couple of years of a Second Depression when it shows up.

Headlines?  Only a few.  Coffee?  Oh, heavens yes.  Bean up and let’s “hoptoit.”

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We have much to ponder:  New jobs report.  A winner.  Meanwhile, a series of Federal Reserve working papers has us considering the kind of future the Fed is looking at.  Then there’s more action by North Korea and a migration path to war with China if we screw the pooch in negotiations.

But mainly, we’re watching the markets and the rhyme off the 1920’s and waiting for the Big Top which must necessarily be set before the Second Depression sets in.  On the way up, we’re happily on our way to adding another significant digit in our trading account.

Unless, that is, we skip it the blow off top and go right to the war that usually follows a global depression.

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There are some interesting accounting problems on the horizon for a lot of publicly held companies. 

While they have benefited from the declining interest rate paradigm since 1980, if the bottom is really “in” on rates, any sudden moves could send corporate balance sheets seriously “out of whack” in a heartbeat.

The result of that would be?  Well, let’s just say “Not pretty…”

That said, we have a HUGE development which I’ll explain in the ChartPack section.

No fake news here,  but we do note the date and how a more-than-ample supply is probably available.

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A fair bit on  the plate this morning.  In the Strategy area, we continue our discussion of three books that may provide a useful “look-ahead” reference series for the coming period of history.

Under Tactics we take on the task of trading what may be one more small decline before the market heads up – if indeed that’s what’s in the cards.  Use the “brainamp.xls” spreadsheet on the Master Index page to play along. It’s a locked spreadsheet but the password is there, too.

On “words” a couple of news stories this morning have me appalled with the state of reportorial disrepair in ‘Merica.

And last, but not least, a short discussion of “Where has a Nation of Laws” gone?

A Thermos with 25 ounces of wake-up juice at the ready and a raging thunderstorm outside, what could be better on a stormy Wednesday morning?

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Been reading a fascinating book (I’ll give you the title in a sec.) and it makes some amazing forecasts related to energy, some of which I hinted at in Friday’s Urban column.

This morning we consider the economic implications but not before running Paul Ryan down for allowing turncoat Republicans of Convenience to escape being named…which is why he pulled the healthcare bill rather than have the turncoats revealed.

It’s a world of filth, smut, oil, political intrigue and social carnage. Oh, and money, too.

Just our kind of place.

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We will skip the usual chit-chat about “routine news”  today – although some headlines will be included because they directly impact market psychology…  This aside, there are some very important developments in how Global Markets are organized and readers have asked for some in-depth remarks on our forecast of a year and a half back in which we raised the possibility that the week of March 6 this year would line up with the all-time high in 1929.

While that is certainly true, there’s a lot more to it than that, so time to roll up the sleeves and get on with it…

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While we sit around waiting for the Global Upside Breakout (or fifth wave failure) to clarify, we have some interesting theoretical ideas to bounce around this morning…

In coming weeks, we will get back into the more prosaic problems of Urban Survival in the Age of Funny Money…but for now,, we’re seriously focused on helping our readers maintain a sense of calm, balance, and purpose while the doom porn machines and the Trump bashers duke it our for mental processor clicks.

Around here, other than shrimp pizza and a glass of Paisano, little takes processor time away from making the other kind of dough.

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