With our recent views on immigration and what’s happening in the Middle East, we have gotten right up to the boundary where the rubber meets the road, or more correctly, where economic forces meet the headlines.  As part of our work around here, I recently began to wonder if the current market run-up might somehow look like another 1920’s period; perhaps 1927, or so.  This morning a couple of graphs to ponder as we ask with more precision whether the analog might be to May7th of 1926?  And, if it is, what could lie ahead for the market?  After headlines including the fast-moving events surrounding Baghdad…and that “deal with al Qaeda” that seems to be in play.

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A friend of mine called Tuesday morning, after I had posted the UrbanSurvival report and claimed that president Obama had “deported more than any other president in history!”

Not ready to believe anything, until at least noon local time, I agreed to do a serious look at the immigration statistics, and (not surprisingly) this is another case of Ure being right, much to the consternation of many of my friends.

The main lesson this morning is not to be critical of the administration’s immigration policies, but to demonstrate how Business Process Re-Engineering (BPR) is a very useful tool when you come across a complex issue, such as immigration. 

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This morning’s report was to have been titled “What’ll Be Left Standing?  (2) The Matrix” but something much more important is coming into focus:  Yes, a huge blow-off top in the stock market with a Dow north of 20,000 is likely in the wings.  But it takes a lot of background to understand the dynamics and where it leads.  One reason to expect it is in the Fed’s Consumer debt report out late Friday.

In our Wednesday report, we delved into some of the drivers of the New Depression and explored how certain social trends, like “children” living with their parents well into adulthood are helping moderate what would otherwise likely be a much steeper and faster descent into economic hell.  Of course, the flip side of it isn’t all that pretty:  Kids coming home drive the parents to work well past what could otherwise have been an early retirement age, but for the kids that don’t have the jobs to support the home sales that live in the “house that Jack built.” Note to nonsubscribers: Finest nursery tale ever, and it explains more about economics than most four-year programs and a good number of post-grad schools:

This is the horse and the hound and the horn

That belonged to the farmer sowing his corn

That kept the rooster that crowed in the morn

That woke the judge all shaven and shorn

That married the man all tattered and torn

That kissed the maiden all forlorn

That milked the cow with the crumpled horn

That tossed the dog that worried the cat

That chased the rat that ate the cheese

That lay in the house that Jack built.

But, then again, most economists I would argue, know plenty of math yet don’t grasp the circularity firmly. Or, to put it nicely, they don’t know Jack.  We’ll be sure to mention when subsequent tertiary ripple effect circularity or the general dynamic stochastic equilibrium model is made into a nursery rhyme.

We dispense with our review of headlines this morning because of the importance of the underlying economic shift that’s just now getting underway. 

Stand by to ROAR.  With apologies to Prince for the poor play of his 1983 smash-hit ‘Party like it’s 1999”,  We’re gonna partly like it’s 1927.

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A long-time subscriber up in Sandpoint, Idaho (since 2010) sent in a request this week:  The general idea was looking into the crystal ball and see what sectors will likely be hot and which ones not, when the big collapse that everyone knows will be along one of these days, actually shows up.  While I have been moderately bullish for a minimum of 1,982 on the S&P (with extensions up to the 2,200 level possibly in the cards) it sounds premature to be looking at the after-crash carnage.  But since this reader asked no point in not doing some initial planning and expectation setting.  As you’ll find, there are many-a-new odd dynamics in play that will make this Depression much (how to say this?) different from the last one.  First, however, some oatmeal and decaf and a visit to the teletypes before we get down to the Trading Model and our “Continuity of Life”  (while becoming filthy rich) discussion.

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Want to have a little fun and do some serious brainwork?  Pick a country (any country) in the world where you think there could be a revolution in the next 20-30 years.  That’s what we do this morning and come up with a surprising answer. And no, it’s not the USA; it is somewhere else but fairly important.  Before we get into darts and Molotov’s, though, a few headlines to wake up the mind….

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This morning we present the first of two parts of how technology seems to exhibit a 35-37 year periodicity, which has tremendous social and economic implications.  The process begins with a discussion of how media “hems in” decision-making by policymakers, compares media density and rollout times between radio, television (and cable) and the Internet and proposed what’s likely ahead.  Next, we consider analogs between the 1929-1932 decline and more recent events of the Housing Bubble collapse.  And from here (in part 2 Saturday) we will stir it all up and see what the ongoing socioeconomic revolution looks like.  But before we dig in, some lighter fare in the form of morning headlines and a check of how our Trading Model is doing (just fine, but with additional details.)

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Markets being closed for the holiday, our comments today will be brief as we’ll be considering the key metric that any customer of any organization gets to ask – any time and anywhere.  Sure, we pour untold billions into defense, and yeah – maybe you can’t put a dollar value on it  – but this being Memorial Day, we ask anyway: Are we getting our monies worth?  I think I can show you convincingly that military might doesn’t come from the checkbook.  It comes from what’s between our ears.

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I don’t often mention my little sister who retired from Boeing HR a few years ago, but she’s got an absolutely fascinating job in her “semi-retired” state working with people who have serious hoarding issues.  This week, we had a discussion of what makes a hoarder, and what does not, and we’ll discuss the economics of it and outlook this morning.  While it’s true that “not everyone has to be a Minimalist” hoarding dysfunction comes in all kinds of flavors and with it (and here’s where it gets interesting) comes the question about where prepping fits.  So pull up some coffee (and your breakfast MRE) and sitcherbuttdown.  Gonna do us some housekeeping between the ears.

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A couple of really neat ideas – concepts at this stage – to kick around.  But they may be very useful thought tools in the future.  And they lead us to an evolving area of research that will likely lead the world in some unexpected directions, or the sort falling out of headlines even today.  It’s the hidden dynamic of corporate computational feudalism. 

This “world-changer” came to light from studying the problem of “making money” and how almost everyone on the planet has been harnessed, one way or the other, into a global financial system.  Sure, that’s obvious.  But this morning we have a couple of ideas to kick around that go to the very core of just what that means.  After a few calisthenics of the headline sort to get us rolling…

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Over the past couple of weeks we’ve been working around to some of the deep, dark secrets of how the economy really works.  The stuff that doesn’t make it into the 5-o’clock news shows.  The one that explains how, rather simply, the Fed can print money like a house afire, and still not have inflation running through the roof.   All fine theory, of course.  But what’s the point, right?

This morning you’re going to learn to think in an unconventional way about what I call “The America Platform.”  Just like major software management tools, we can look at our own future, and that of “The America Platform,” with the same mindset as a software implementation team on a BPR project (business process re-engineering).  In this sense, “financial prepping” is a series of “use cases” in software design.  Or, you could considers it a personal financial stress test.

After some coffee, we’ll wrap it all up and make soup of it.  Included is a PowerPoint that you can share with your spouse and family members, too, if you’re so inclined.

If all goes well, you’ll nail the future, instead of t’other way around; the way your you get “nailed.”   After coffee and headlines, as is our custom. 

Reader Note: If you don’t have PowerPoint for this morning’s slide show (and worksheets) you can download OpenOffice free and use the compatible presentation tool there.

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How much financial prepping you can do is obviously limited, especially if you’re a “small fry” and you’ve been used to moving money around seeking a good rate of return.  But a funny thing happens in this morning’s report.  We dig far enough into the financial underpinnings of the economy to discover why gold and silver have not yet taken off to the upside…something that all by itself would be worth this morning’s column.  After coffee and crumpets, ‘natch.

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A number of readers – and even our visiting house guest – asked this week about whether there would really be a “…collapse of the US Dollar on July 1st?

In a word, “NO!  Not likely.”  But we’ll explain this as a “matter of FACTA”  in due course.

But the fact that people even have questions about such an eventuality gets us into a “teaching mood” and so a number of quick “lessons from the newsroom” on how to sort out fear-mongering from reality are in order.  Maybe a simple set of rules so the next time you have a question like “Is the dollar collapsing in 2-months?” you’ll be able to answer it without help.

While I put on my best James Spader impression (spoofing the series “The Blacklist”) and come up with a snappy quote, we’ll nosh and bean as we prick a few headlines, or was that headline a few….  Then onto the morning digital Danish:  Nine rules to avoid being an idiot.

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Governments are funny things.  While often pretending to “protect” citizens, they often supervise something much more sinister.  When folks aren’t looking, to cite the example of the Native Americans, they seize land shared by a community for tens of thousands of years.  Then they move out the first people and install new (and generally white) faces from European ancestry who are agreeable to developing the land in a certain way and comply with taxes on it.

The “disenfranchise one set of people” game looks to be playing out – at least for some Jews – in eastern Ukraine as well.

And that would be fine making headlines as it is (and rising resentment), except now there’s a global attack of a different sort underway.  Not in the headlines.  More subtle but potentially move devastating:  Under the guise of “fighting terror” government has now granted itself “regulatory authority” to track how you spend money.  All part of an invisible fight that the Mainstream Media isn’t talking about:  The attack on cash. 

This morning we dig into this a ways, after headlines and much future focus on aircraft carriers, charts, and coffee…

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