This morning we focus on the one investment move that’s likely to matter this fall: When do we head out the casino door and let the place fall apart?
Both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 will open Monday from Record Highs, but the Dow has been non-confirming.
First though, a check of a few headlines and some coffee to get us ready for the thinking ahead…
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This morning we do a rethink on one of those “soft” relationships in economics: Between the performance of the stock market and the operation of commodity markets.
All this because? We like to develop trading-support models. Intuitively, if you have a modeling system like our “Golem” spreadsheet (and understand it is offset from actual results by virtual of probability quadrature) along with our Elliott Wave calculating BrainAmp spreadsheet, you MAY have a different (odds-changing) view than if you were just trading singular impulsive inputs. Like a “headline number.”
Is there another tool to be found in commodity pricing? Today the theory discussion and one of these days we may do the harder work of coding it.
After headlines, of course.
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We share a simple tool this morning to understand who’s making the money as the US dollar has gained – lowering the price of gold and pressuring oil.
That and more, so bean up – it’s that time again…
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While we were very positive about the market this week, and perhaps even into next, there are some Big Uglies that we don’t talk very often about.
They’re the assumptions about the planet’s future that over the longer-term will define how many humans are alive in about 20-years, or so.
Before the cheery tidings about how “In the Long-Run, We’re All Dead” let’s pause briefly and load up on the daily mundanely. Gathering our energy for this morning is an important mission..
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Not an especially long report this morning, but decidedly important. It’s because of how world event and markets are shaping up over the coming30-days.
This morning, after a few headlines, a detailed look at the charts and what they may be telling us about “future-yet-to-come…”
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Yes, that’s right – the Blow-off Top may be here – and it could be a doozy!
So we have a couple of things on this “Make Money the Old-Fashioned Way” checklist today: In the short-term, an “averaging top” idea. Then an in-depth in our ChartPack with some of the “Golem” notes.
But then, in the longer-term, there’s something on the electromagnetic horizon that could be massively impacting.
So coffee-up. The kids are busy on the free side…so us grown-ups can work on what matters: Money.
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“The What?”
Art of Making Money, of course!
Since we are still in the lazy part of summer – and we expect the market to be screaming to new highs in the coming few weeks, we will focus – as all natural-born gamblers would – on the art of taking money from the house.
After we do some headlines, though a strong hit of NoDoz may be in order there. Refried news, anyone?
This is a celebratory weekend, too…for reasons that will become clear in the ChartPack section…
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Both involve making money.
One has to do with our “heartbeat of the market” that we discovered hidden in the data recently. Not perfectly regular, but close enough for trading.
So one deep though this morning deals with a new finding in the “heartbeat.”
The second is how we plan to play the Fed announcement today.
A few headlines? Sure. But let’s talk money. Because despite the terrible bashing the anti-doughs make, we find buying groceries is easier than stealing ’em!
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In one of our “let the mind wander” deep-thinking pieces, we today look at the history of radio technology as an analog to development of modern digital platforms.
Somehow, from there, we end up considering computational ecosystems and which companies need to buy what in order to “own more future.”
After headlines and charts, we step back in time and into the future…
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Breakthrough time: One of the most startling things to emerge from our recent explorations to evolve a “mechanical trading system” has been more than just the discovery of a semi-regular heartbeat to the market.
What we’ve stumbled into is something I call “Probability Quadrature.” It has the potential to rewrite our understanding of “event measurement.” Oh…,and make a butt-load of money – which would be the point.
I’ll school you on it after headlines, tea, and charts…
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A golem is something like an automaton (or more correctly: an animated anthropomorphic being) in old Yiddish literature. Sounds like a spreadsheet to us!
In the modern sense, it may evolve into yet another trading tool designed to provide additional information to the serious (OK, greedy, then…) trader in search of a dollar.
Today – after a few headlines and the daily charts – we will explore ways to incorporate some logic into a complex spreadsheet with the objective of building us a “mechanical advisor.“
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I do not know when I have been more excited about something: In our decade-plus search to find new ways to analyze stock market data we have come up with a regular heartbeat to the market.
In today’s report, we not only tell you how to calculate this heartbeat yourself, with detailed Microsoft Excel instructions, but we also consider whether this “heartbeat” is telling us to expect a major downturn in the market next week.
Toss in the federal government’s potential Cold War-triggering indictment of Russian military officials for allegedly trolling American political contests and the outlook for next week becomes sketchy at best.
First, some headlines and more coffee as our warm-up for the big discovery gets underway…
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Is World War III underway already except no one knows it because it’s hidden in plain sight? Are you immune to it yourself because you fail to view your phone or computer as a “battle space viewer?” Strong case to be made for that… one that who;s we’re locked in an unwitting World War Web.
Today we review some of the US military’s concerns about social media. Including the shifty nature of ISIS (Daesh) on social. And yes, the Russians are worried about “color revolutions” on their soil, too. Aided and abetted by the West. Dangerous battle space. Many escalation paths.
Which is why – unreported in the stupid MSM – troll-farms and NGW/IW is the new locus of Russian and Chinese military doctrine.
It’s a critical time to review the Information Warfare Operating Environment, don’tcha think? After our morning ChartPack and a few headlines, with more coffee, of course…
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