But we may have another week or two before the wheels come off. For today, then, a quiet mid summer weekend with a major problem becoming visible in our charts.
Giving us time to reflect on the “bow waves” of the future.
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We open our thinking toolkit – which includes the hypothetical Directorate 153 – today as we wonder what’s been going on at Area 51. And if that might have something to do with the U.S./NATO willingness to egg Russia (and whoever else) into a nuclear showdown.
However, as we face another morning of escalation potential in the Middle East in 3 hot zones, in Europe along the Ukraine and possibly now the NATO supporters of that war’s frontiers, there’s a new pot about to boil over in maritime territory held by the Philippines – and China wants to expand there oh so badly.
While our view is entirely fictional,; my consigliere has been asking me for months to “…ponder why Victoria Nuland and the other neo-turned-libcons at State are willing to put it “all out there.”
Is it runaway ideology? Not likely – smart people don’t make moves unless they believe there’s a winnable play to be made.
But, as you will see in today’s speculative journey into the shadowlands of mythical intelligence units, there may be a lot more than a rabbit down this rabbit hole. Could be aliens are playing us,..
If course there’s the usual news flow to be mined, as well. So coffee up and let’s ride. We trust you remember of the Wunderwaffen worked out for Germany in WWII?
Into the Twilight Zone of future?
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There was little surprise in the Friday Housing report hitting record highs. See, when a country is locked in a blow off topping process, inflation’s effects are very predictable.
It’s also useful to remind that when inflation makes it appear that prices are going up (which they are) it also means the purchasing power of your money is cratering (which is also true).
There are implications for the U.S. high consumption lifestyle as it rolls forward.
But the fact of weekend headlines like “Housing Prices Hit Record” remind us that we are still on a quest for a single Holy Number of the Future. An overall economy’s terminal stochastic function.
We will follow a bit of logic on that as a kickoff today. Before getting into a few meaningful headlines and the ChartPack to wrap up the week.
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It will be a couple of weeks before “The 100-Year Toaster” shows up on Amazon. Proofreading is something I hate. It’s just so “nit-picky” – make me crazy(er).
This being an American holiday, we will still do our ChartPack. Besides, Europe and elsewhere are “business as usual.”
A longish read – and an extra cup of coffee seems in order. And then we, too, will be back to real work.
Holiday? For whom?
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Let’s begin at the beginning: “A wait state is a delay experienced by a computer processor when accessing external memory or another device that is slow to respond,” It is precisely analogous to the problem faced by people (like us) who can see what the Future may hold, but there could be some time – months or even years, in fact – before said future actually darkens our doorstep.
What to do in the meantime? I mean “seeing the Future” can be done. Sometimes via fiction (think Jules Verne) and sometimes in movies (Shatner’s fine work). But how many people find themselves today – reading the “scary headlines” and yet remain paralyzed and unable to do a damn thing about it.
DIHLW: Deer in headlights world.
That and our usual Saturday morning ChartPack while Mr. Ure does an “early write” so I can be welding at dawn before the fire retardant on the lawn (dew) burns off…welding on solar rack #1 calls.
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Yes, the money angles are important but Anti-Aging: a Shotgun Approach is equally important. If you are old enough to have faced off with your own mortality.
We have another one of those longish reports today, But we try to hold a balance between the money coming in on the one hand, and the sands of time sliding out from our grasp on the other.
Let’s start with the CPI data…
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A short lesson today on how the future news events do move in tandem with the future. That is, if you’re one of the “intelligencia” who understands how news is often-times a sheep shearing tool for the rich.
The word “concretizing” may not be familiar to you. The word, Oxford Languages tells us, really began to ramp-up in the vernacular from the middle 1950s on.
Which really makes sense; that was when America was building out the Interstate Highway system and we were – as a country – in the business of “concretizing” large swatches of urban territory. Which, upon completion, would help to turn major urban centers into “heat islands” which people today get all worked up over.
No, dear Reader – this is cause and effect, complete with a linguistic set of trail markers – on the road to losing our national mind.
For giggles and grins, we are using the verb “concretize” to set up the first half of next week in our look-aheads so that nothing will faze [v, 1] (or phase [v, 2]) you when it gets here.
Double up the bean and pass the Portland cement. We gonna steamroll into the weekend.
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My, ain’t this an odd topic for a (nominally) financial (and other interests) website? Well, not really. But today we go a bit deep on the part of “making a killing” that involves us personally. We inspect the choice we each will face when “comes time to go.”
Before we drill into that, however, the non-stop merriment of news flow continues. We kick off with ADP and how it looks compared with the JOLTS report Tuesday.
Two perspectives on a U.S. missile test as we careen toward a worry filled July. And there’s more political silliness than anyone would expect, except folks around here.
More than a dozen market charts on how economic means are rolling. Definitely two cups worth.
Plus you’ll enjoy my “Woo for the Road” report…
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Just when the Bears were lining up for a “Big One…” As a result of following long wave economic influences on markets for a quarter century in our Peoplenomics reports, is that it has provided time to come up with interesting “Early Warning Indicators.”
As you will see in this morning’s ChartPack, one of these is acting very strangely – and we have enough confidence it in, we might make (for us) a rare option play next week.
A few headlines, of course. But as is the case Saturdays, we are really focused on money so we can get back to playing around the ranch.
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Just as I was writing this morning’s column on Tuesday, a wild storm line went through and we haven’t see power since. There’s even a chance we won’t get power back until Thursday or even Friday.
The good news for us is that we have a generator and transfer switch plus all those golf dart batteries keep the freezers frozen overnight.
But even out here in Prepper Land, it’s one thing to talk a good recovery plan. It’s quite another to find that load you forgot in the load shedding plan.
Markets are set for a soft opening – so while we wait for unlimited power to return, Ure’s thinking about a nap…
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Our usual publishing is way off schedule today.
We had a set of severe thunderstorms go through the area Tuesday morning and honestly, we have no idea when the power will be back on line. The generator is working like a champ, but until the extra kick from the solar comes back up (around 10 AM is when we get meaningful power) things will be a bit off-kilter.
At its peak there were more than 60,000 homes without power – winds were north of 50 MPH, and yes, that was some rain.
Back to working on Peoplenomics for this morning, but wanted you to know we’re fine, we haven’t missed a meal, but being on a severe power diet is not a lot of fun.
And to think, we’re covering how things could devolve in 2025 in the PN report, lol.
Write when it’s lights on,
George@Ure.net
One of the hardest decisions a small trader can make is whether to hold a position on a Holiday weekend. So, today we will consider just a bit of the recent data in this regard.
Around us, the world situation continues to devolve. With liquid reinforcements, a roast thawing out, and a whole bunch of weekend goodies in our ShopTalk series, we might as well do the great work right up to the end.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves – the data will tell us when actual panic is warranted…
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25-years ago we coined the term “UrbanSurvival” on the leading edge of what became the prepping movement. Today, there is what we think will be another long-term trend change in play. Young people are warming to minimalism and downscaling.
We’re no strangers to the downscaling concept. Having made the decision to downscale in 2002-2003. But doing both downscaling and minimalism has turned out to be harder than we would have expected.
A few notes on this, the world situation and the ChartPack as America gears up for the first holiday of summer with Monday off for many.
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