Tired of hearing endlessly about the Ceiling and the Shutdown? Well, there really is a solution no one talks about but it’s a very ugly and messy one. Many times in the past, we have referred to our purely hypothetical Directorate 153 as being a kind of Central Command for a shadow government which really drives US sociopolitical operations. Envisioned as being an outgrowth of the Cold War, when the US was at a long-term strategic disadvantage in policy implementation, due to the longer duration of Soviet and now Federation (State Duma) committee plans, our hypothesized Directorate at least gives the West a somewhat equalized footing on the timeline; one less subject to political breezes that blow through Washington in the wake of each election. This morning, after a cup and a crumpet, we’ll consider what we do best around here: The unthinkable.
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Yellen over Kohn: A Vision of What’s to Come
It’s a buzz. A vibration that permeates the soul that I haven’t felt in years. The last locks on a tumbler of an incredibly complex lock mechanism finally falling into place at last and revealing a graceful treasure within. Unfortunately, what is unlocked if the future, as a design comes into view; one that’s at once horrifying because of the magnitude of change it will be to the unwary, but – in a curious way – one that preserves America as a country while ceding the obvious: We aren’t the only country of power in the world, anymore. We’ll dispense with this morning’s usual rehash of headlines because for millions of Americans, grasping the Big Picture of where the economy is likely headed is the most important “real” story out there. Yellen’s in, Kohn isn’t…but it speaks volumes as to ‘Merica’s future for those willing to study the playing field…
Special Peoplenomics Subscriber Update
Although I don’t offer trading advice, I note that the “Wild-ass trade” that I described and entered into last Thursday is now solidly in the money. I took profits early, but still made a few bucks on the turn. I’ve been on the phone, what can I say.
As of posting time Tuesday (about 3:05 PM EDT) here’s how the trade worked out:
Entry: Thu Oct 03 11:52:12 2013 Buy FAZ Oct 19 ’13 $33 Call Executed @ $0.53 ($53 per contract)
Exit: Tue Oct 08 11:47:34 2013 Sell FAZ Oct 19 ’13 $33 Call Executed @ $0.61 ($61 per contract)
Any reader stupid enough to try and shadow trade me hopefully has noticed that the price has been as high at $0.70 ($70/contract) and will have out-performed me on the sell to close side – I should not answers the damn phone, lol.
The reason I elected to exist is that the expected geopolitical situation did not develop over the weekend and even though the trade worked out, I’ll take some money any time… More in tomorrow’s Peoplenomics, but we continue to expect 1,650 to 1,640 in the S&P and 1,540 is not off the table longer term. Which will make a lot more sense after you read tomorrow’s report…
Saturday Housekeeping: Kohn in the Wings?
That “wild trade” that I put on Thursday was beginning to look like a turkey by late Friday and maybe that $100 lotto ticket will blow up…so we’ll scan the news this morning and look at signs and portents. And sniff around the Economic Stabilization Fund again, which may be back in business and manipulating US Markets. Did I mention key source whispered this morning that Donald Kohn might well be the next Fed boss, not Janet Yellen? Then there’s a question about Bitcoin which has come up, and then we go through the charts for the week which (damn!) are still saying the place to be in this market is….well, we’ll get to that, too…
Mass Impact News Event Due Monday’ish?
Yes, a warning about Monday/Tuesday. Words like “charm offensive” and “unintended consequences” may be about to sweep over the country. So, we depart from our usual big picture look at economic life – and how to survive whatever comes next – as we consider whether the markets are telling us something in advance about events to come next week. For this morning it’s a statistical blip, but that has never stopped me from putting on a wild-ass trade (like the one I put on the week ahead of 1987, come to think of it). A short rap this morning on making money on disaster. I will update the ChartPack over the weekend. But for now, life is all about capital preservation in uncertain times. And making a buck on a wild-eyed gamble…MAYBE….
Trading Through the Shutdown
Even if you only have a few dollars in a 401-k plan, this morning’s report is very important since the financial waters are looking a bit stormy in here. So…This morning, after a long couple of weeks on the road, we are back home and now face the daunting task of making sense out of things, It’s a bit like walking out on a chess game, having your opponent make several nonsensical moves, and then coming back to see if that “winning strategy” you had before going on walkabout for the game still makes sense. After, of course, the usual midweek coffee and look at…
How Transparent Economics Would Really Work
(Elko. NV) Thursday morning’s UrbanSurvival report (*available here) rather cynically lambasted the whole US government reporting system for p[resenting the public with mindless statistical gobbledygook which is almost impossible to sort out in any kind of meaningful way. So I thought it would be instructive this morning to look at how we could rewrite economic reports so that the general public could get something useful out of them. However, before we go into this, we begin with our trudge through the headlines to see if the world survived another night. Which it would have to (logically) in order to be posing rhetorical questions like this, but we’ll do it anyway while the coffee kicks in.
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Chicago: The "Soft Entrance" of Martial Law?
(Grants Pass, OR) We continue our adventuring around the country this morning with a trip over to the east Bay area and a day of consulting tomorrow. But, on our way, we’ve had plenty of time to see some interesting things in America, including having the luxury of watching the follow-on to the Chicago shootings debate this week and a shocking move on the part of the Secretary of State. But, as usual, before we get into those items, a discussion first about how a few other headlines are rolling…
The Odds Change on "Climatecide"
Out here on the road, as we’ve been traveling about for the past week, it’s become apparent that something is going on with climate, but what – exactly – is not clear. In part of Texas, the drought continued until Friday, and for sure driving by Chaco Canyon’s ruins is something of a wake-up call. But there were smatterings about in the headlines this week that prompt us to wonder “What if Al Gore, et al, get this completely back-asswards and the climate flips into global cooling rather than global warming?” Hot or cold on climate, though, we start as every morning with hot coffee and a cool eye on some emotionally hot headlines…and we have tons of those including another “on schedule” shooting…
The “Method School” of Economics
“What’s my motivation?” is an odd cliché for a site ostensibly about long wave economics to be inquiring about. But this morning we’ll take a quick look at something that has been rattling around in the back of my mind since about the second day of our latest adventuring around the country. First, though, some headlines to help kick the brain cells into functioning – helped along by a generous shot of coffee as we await sunrise (or is that cloud rise?) on Puget Sound.
Living Through the Turn
A reader asked me a while back “My favor then, is to ask if you would write a commentary or short report on your macro insight of their chapter 11 on Preparing for the Fourth Turning in both an economic and social commentary, and where we might be historically speaking, in that turning ?” It will be short, and to the point, but not before we grind on some morning headlines…
Serious Prepping Notes: “Wearable Wealth”
There is much ground to be covered this morning, what with Syria developments,
the Kerry Clock, and even our trading positions as we try to beat the Grim
Reaper of Wealth and life savings. So buckle-in and bean-up…this is one
of our most interesting mornings in a long while…Oh, did I mention the next
mass-killing/terrorism likely date is October 8 based on some new insights into
futuring as part of our Nostracodeus project? This is 9/11/13 and 12 years after
9/11/01….so you do see what’s missing, right?
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The Most Difficult Market Judgment of the Year
This morning, as we will discuss in some depth in our ChartPack section, there
looms one of the ugliest cash and account management decisions of the year,
thanks to Syria. Plus, along with that, we’re also starting to see some of
the more unexpected impacts in other areas starting to come into view as well.
But before Mr. Jolly gets into these light-hearted topics, we’ll do our usual
Mrs. Olson’s with two eggs over easy and a side of death, doom, and disaster
first…