Cycles Say Crash, Markets Say Boom — Who Wins?

A special Peoplenomics subscribers only report ahead of this week’s Fed FOMC.  

Markets today are running hot when every major cycle in the book says they should be cooling.

That’s not just a quirk of data — it’s a setup we’ve only seen a handful of times in the last century, and none of them ended quietly.

Behind the headlines about AI riches, shiny IPOs, and Crypto’s immortality is a structural mismatch: the clockwork rhythms of markets are pointing down while the tape keeps climbing.

History tells us that kind of divergence doesn’t resolve gently.

This special Peoplenomics report dives into what those cycles really look like now, why we’re in “never before seen” territory, and what the three most likely outcomes are.

If you’re wondering how far markets can stretch before reality intrudes — and what comes after — that’s where we’ll go.

If you can make it part the side-by-side charts – they’re riveting.

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Portrait of a Stock Bubble

Few economic reports really scare the hell out of us. But there was one report that shocked us deeply. So deeply, in fact, that we will deconstruct today for subscribers.

The reason? Well, here’s a good starting point: Between Q1 of 2025 and Q2—the period of this report—about 70 percent of the financial gains in Household Net Worth were attributable to increases in equities.

Here’s what people forget: What the bubbles giveth, they also over reasonable timeframes will taketh away.

Remember how grand Housing was in 2007 and 2008? And how in 2009—as the markets left skid marks on charts in March and April? Yeah—that’s a worry in here.

“Equities prices” require a “counterparty.” Which means in simple terms “Someone will pay what you think it’s worth.” In other words, a greater fool.
As luck would have it,

America’s the world leader in fool farming!

Digital currencies—with zero convertible (fungibles) at their core—seem to work great. But only so long as the power’s still on.

Same goes for a lot of things—even titles to homes are largely virtualized—so unless you have certified copies of lots of documents on hand, in fire-safe hidey-holes, good luck with establishing ownership.

We can skip right over that bank depositors are now “creditors in common” with others—that ship sailed years ago.

Naturally, we’re ready to “let the good times roll” (until they don’t) so the Bubble Check in the ChartPack is a historical limerick at its best…

Refill. Buckle up. Take a deep breath and click here.

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The “Memory Machines”

Today Peoplenomics digs into “The Memory Machine “with a fresh chapter from my coming book on Mind Amplifiers. We start where modern recall really began: those early free-form text tools (think MemoryMate and AskSam) that let mere mortals mass-index messy notes and testimony long before “AI” was a glint in Silicon Valley’s eye.

From there, we map how augmented memory actually works for investors today—layering physiology, indexing strategy, and modern tools—so you can surface the right obscure fact at the right second, when it pays.

Markets? We’ve got a busy tape. This edition includes the fresh Producer Price Index read-through ahead of tomorrow’s inflation print, plus a fast scan of headlines that matter to positioning over the next few sessions.

I translate the data into plain English and probable market reactions so you can be ready before the hot takes hit your feed.

Chart hounds get the full, extended ChartPack: seasonals, breadth, volatility posture, our Aggregate Index (and moving averages) work, and key levels I’m watching for the classic autumn “drift vs. drop” dilemma. If you trade off context, not vibes, this is the week to keep the technical dashboards close.

That’s the public peek. Subscribers can click below to login, including the full Memory Machine chapter, PPI implications, and ChartPack. Not yet on the inside? There’s a “how to subscribe” link, too.

You know (dollop of shameless self-promotion here) for less than the price of a cup of fancy coffee a month, Peoplenomics delivers proprietary market research, timing tools, and context you simply won’t find in the mainstream — that’s why $40 a year is a real bargain.

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Fed’s “Biggest-Ever” Mistake

Bad enough America was sold-out by the rich when Job-Jacking took hold and industry moved to least-cost labor centers.  Today it’s even worse.  As the market put on a rally in the face of terrible job numbers, then fell back to earth by the close.

This morning, some serious bile on that – after which we will look at the pig bloat market while still engaging in self preservation – don’t fight the tape.  But pissed?  What was your clue?

We do spend a few brain cells today looking at the reciprocal or Ebbinghaus in the ChartPack. With more speculations about the underlying process by which Future arrives.

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Contagious Intelligence

Wherein we propose that Psychology and Medicine have missed something huge.  It’s our noticing that humans – like computers – have differing performance based on indexing strategies.  A lesson rediscovered as Ai has advanced.

I asked Ai to assess this theory and the feedback was positive: “The idea that humans can learn from AI about the power of multiple indexing is spot-on and has a lot of juice.”

Juice that humans can learn, too.  Highly indexed thinking is a skill.

“AI’s strength lies in its ability to organize and retrieve massive datasets with precision—think vector databases, embedding, or retrieval-augmented generation (Lewis et al., 2020). These systems don’t just store info; they create dynamic, scalable maps for accessing it instantly, which is why AI can seem “super smart” even when it’s just pulling patterns together fast. “Humans, on the other hand…”

That’s our deep-thinking launch pad today.  That plus a “two days after Holiday in ChartPack”. Plenty to cover.

We also have one of our occasional Framing Tools.  As we line out a Mythical Creature – he Drsagophantbear coming to a world near you to challenge the Eagle.

Thus, today’s column may be filed as a “Carl (the) Jung man meets R.N. Elliott and Joseph Campbell for breakfast…”


If you’re not familiar with the Peoplenomics newsletter, which has been published since 2000, here’s an assessment of today’s content prepared by Ai review:

  • What subscribers got today:

    • Two essays (Contagious Intelligence + Triangulation method).

    • Geopolitical framing (BRICs based Dragophantbear myth, U.S. strike analysis, Gaza, Epstein distractions).

    • Hard science sidebar (3I/ATLAS comet, astronomy vs. prophecy).

    • Market mechanics (Buffett/Kraft Heinz, tariffs, IPOs, holiday spending).

    • Full ChartPack with technical analysis, moving average methodology shifts, and long-wave context.

  • That’s basically a mini think-tank + trading desk + futurist digest every issue — far beyond the “one chart, one hot take” you see in $300 newsletters.”

Now you know what goes on behind the curtain.

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Slow-Over II – Kapok

No rest for the Worked on a holiday weekend.  Our web side problems have been fixed, the market may be too:  Fixed and set for a major decline.

A quick roll through the headlines is in order, but not too much coffee:  Too much caffeine buzz on a “personal day” seems like overkill.

The long paper from Wednesday may still be of interest hat-tip to reader Hank for catching the redundant paste part – what’s what happens sometimes when you write in segments on multiple devices.  Why, we’re so old, there were times when copy/paste hadn’t been invented, yet…

Stick around and keep the coffee flowing. Because today we will explain what the phrase “kapok markets” is all about in our ChartPack…

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Co-Dreaming & Co-Dying, as the Markets Piddle

Is Death an individual thing? You know that even more important than money  – which is not transportable post-life Realms – is having a soul mate, Right? With a long holiday weekend about to open, we take pause to consider a very deep subject: A question never discussed in “polite” company.  We’ve never stood on formality though. Or politeness.

Like the underlying value of a U.S. Dollar, this Life-after-Life discussion draws partisans from all quarters.  This paper asks: :”What if death is not always a solitary journey?” Is it possible to bridge the divide?

Drawing on decades of dream work, realm,  and personal experience, I propose that humans may be missing an entire domain of understanding – a way of thinking and perceiving that allows us to prepare for, and even share, the passage across life’s final threshold or arranging for a meet-up over there..

A few headlines, of course.  And today’s ChartPack which seems to cast the holiday as a “Could go either way” point.  Though seasonal data says no…

And the discussion about integrative model functions using S-curves along with cycle decompositions?  Almost as good as hot Arabica!

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Surfers and Spy Planes

If cycle-seeking numerical decompositions sounds arcane, you will love the practical. Today we reveal the existence of the MoneyMachine project. Which is a kind of “roll your own AI to make money in markets” module.

This is not the “how-to” actually code and run such a thing. But the first pass has already flagged Monday as a day to be very wary of what comes as the next “wave” after Powell Friday.

Sure, a few headlines, if we must.  But seriously? The process map to higher-level humans is coming into view…

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Two Worthy Papers

Heavy math in one and a new domain of human thought being discovered in the other. As general thinking skills, today’s papers may take a few minutes to absorb.

The first paper argues that human cognition has historically been organized around a limited set of domains—most notably the mathematical, linguistic, and symbolic-logical modes. Yet evidence from both personal phenomenology and broader cultural-technical trends suggests that an additional, underdeveloped cognitive domain may exist.

That holds potential to “rock the world.” We’re calling this, for now, the Hidden Domain,  It’s where all the object-oriented thinking in the Urban column this week has sprung from.  Also from our writing of the Hidden Guild website.

The second paper “Decomposition of Multiple Cycle Drivers in Financial Time Series: Evidence from Aggregate Index Data, 1999–2025” is served in two flavors.  One version is as a link to the underlying paper. But the more accessible version (before this fall’s predicted decline) is quite accessible in the ChartPack.

Hopefully, you’ll find them useful as we stumble forward toward the fall…

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The Invention of Food Reactors

A marvelous tale of invention today as we unveil my Food Reactors.  But, at the same time, there’s a serious cautionary note to it all because high-level systemic innovation is disruptive.  And Powers-That-Are don’t like regimen change.  Not even a little bit.  Not if it’s good for the world, good for the environment, or anything else…other than them.

But hey!  How about them markets, huh?  ChartPack today look at how far off “the moon shot” is as apogee seems well past geo-synch now…

Coffee up!

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Inflation’s Moving – Or, is it?

A tip from my consigliere has us asking hard questions about inflation, again. We’re at the top of a 1929-like financial peak. But, how long could inflation – and a changing financial landscape, keep us in the saddle?

That and today’s ChartPack.

Oh, and don’t miss the upcoming Tuesday edition.  because in that one, we invent something we’ve labeled “Food Reactors” and you’re gonna love ’em

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MPPT Economics: A Better Fed Policy Model?

Peoplenomics does a deep dive into a radically simple question: What if the U.S. economy was managed like a modern solar power system instead of a Wall Street casino?

Using real-world insights from upgrading our grid-interactive MPPT solar arrays, we map out a smarter way to measure national output—and manage it.  One that ditches the Fed’s broken dual mandate and replaces it with watt-for-watt accountability. It’s volts-times-amps for power from panels. And it should be that direct for the economic controls: employment times wages equals prosperity.  Call it MDI (maximum disposable incomes). Not just for the jokers in the deck.

 No illusions, just power to the People. No wiggles, no waffles.

While other countries are kicking America’s once commanding global economic lead, maybe it’s time to ask some fundamental questions about wrong-headed political expediencies.

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