A funny thing happened this week as we busted through one of our long-expected trend channels.  What’s more, we are just at our 85-day/17-week moving average which – back tested to 1998, has been a reasonable alternative to the (more conventional) 50DMA ore the 100DMA trading indicators.

The computer part is woven in because this has been “Hell week” on that side.

A few headlines, 18-charts, and meh? Another weekend is here…

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Japan’s Central Bank has decided to raise rates – which is almost certain to press on U.S. markets – higher.  Along with this we offer another chapter in “Farm School” which we hope you will find both entertaining and educational.

Next, toss in the usual 18 charts on markets from the perspective of our proprietary Aggregate Index and a sampler plate of the news du jour and its hardly the Dog Days of Summer.

To work, then? Happy Fed day…

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When Donald Trump ran for president the first time, he was touted as a billionaire and the label may have helped.  It sure didn’t hurt.  This time around will be different. His financial condition is now somewhat questionable and the opposing candidate packs a ton of appeal to People of Color (POCs) (or, at least the Obama’s).

Even more interesting to us has been the reaction of the stock market to recent news – so in today’s ChartPack (*extended) we will mix up politics, or Aggregate Index and see how the liberal rich are lining things up for (themselves to benefit) from the election.  forgetting that an avowed Marxist is one of the choices.

Who needs a constitution or open conventions with power, dynamics and law-faring are at work.

Oh, some headlines along the way, as well.  Bean up and let’s read…

Because after this morning’s column, you should be able to talk extemporaneously for at least 15-minutes on in-built dynamic market tension and DeMorgan’s laws.

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Who’d have thought? A new approach to predict market outlooks is arising.   NO, not AI overstepping.  Naw. This could just be George having one of those “How We Know What Isn’t So” moments. Or, it could be a useful way of predicting markets. You get to judge.

Meanwhile, America is presently a bit overcome by politics. We are concerned in the forward-looking work about how 2025 will sort itself out.

A rather extended “ChartPack” is in order, then, because there is more than democrats playing charades going into the mid-August convention.

The usual quippish and snippish remarks may show up, as well. Though you never know about such things..

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OK – a few internet issues. But the big problem to consider this weekend is a major market break.  For this, we have our usual 18-charts in our ChartPack series.

These are useful because they are not “single index” measurements.  Because, as we learned from the Internet Bubble bursting back in 2000-2003, letting financial shills quote only one index (often selected in a dishonest, self-serving way) can mislead the public.

Then on the topic of the Internet outage, a few comments based on my 2012 book “Broken Web.”  Because, honestly, we’re surprised the web hasn’t experienced a major break like this previously.  And please note, it was only a few months back that we rolled the UrbanSurvival website onto a numerical IP address.

Mainly, it’s another one of those “Just the fact, ma’am” kind of days (following Friday, if you will…).

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Between multiple forward-looking predictions, we now have (we think) enough data about the future to make some educated guesses. We will begin with some of the biblical references and concepts, move into how “personal contact with Future looks” and then use a couple of emails from colleagues to illustrate how possible futures “wander by” our minds all day, every day.

After all this, as a warm-up, we reduce it all to a handful of scenarios, one of which may be seen (in retrospect from the future historian’s viewpoint out in 2030) to have been maybe partially correct.

Though, as the old saying goes, “In the land of the Blind a one-eyed man can be King.” As luck would have it, I’ve got the ocular chops covered.

First, though, we have some economic data to roll: Housing Starts from Census and just ahead of the market, Fed Industrial Production numbers.

Now, toss in the usual “hearts of Romaine”: (*tossed headlines) and it will be a grand morning to digest another – too-long – word ramble.  Now, if I had just figured out how to “get paid by the word…“

“Let’s see: 7,650 words in today’s report times….. “

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Until the bad news about this fall begins to dawn on the (stupid) public, this market might move higher still.  In fact, as we reported Wednesday, another 10-14 percent is not off the table.

This being the weekend, we focus only on a few headlines and the ChartPack., But today, even after the hiccup Thursday, there remains reason to either hold long (risky) or (opportunistically) remain in cash and wait for the downside to do more than a 5-hour announcement of its arrival.

A few other news items, but this is getting into the time of year Editors hate. There’s so much heat, so many vacation days to burn off, and so very little worth writing about.  Except, of course, the “news schedules” demand it.,

Even if the topics are third-rate and the conclusions forgone.  This is us, doing our part, too.

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My latest book, published on Kindle and titled “The 100-Year Toaster” argues the world doesn’t have a population crisis.  We have a quality crisis.  Wrapped up in the book is an explanation of how shoddy goods are bad for the planet but great for the corporations who run the place.

Yes, population concerns may be a con.

It’s almost a riff off the wrong-headed “Climate Change” misdirection.  We could solve “climate” at a stroke. By simply ending “useless industries” (take sports, please) and ensuring all product had to meet long-lasting use metrics.

Since this kind of “truth to power” doesn’t sell well (the first copy may have been sold by now, but damn few) we preview another “TTP” (truth to power) book this morning.

Titled “Farm School” it’s a text and workbook approach to Downscaling.  Deciding what in your life is your Big Purpose and then focusing on that direction.

First, as always, a few mood-setting headlines and the ChartPack. As markets continue their “flying concrete” blast-off  which is surely envied by NASA and Musk. This as BTC lives under $60,000. Not surprising in such a Doge eat Doge world, now, is it?

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My, oh my. We’re in the new forecast for the middle of hurricane Beryl set to drench Texas Monday. Which means I have a lot to do this weekend. With 7-inches of rain coming in a 24-hour window…

Other than that (nuclear war fears, election candidate uncertainties – and before we even get to earthquake concerns and the Paris games) just the usual dog days of summer around here.

Pull up a cup and we’ll go through the notes.

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Today we start off with the ADP numbers – which may presage the Friday official jobs data. Then we get into a discussion of fireworks – of the .mil sort – and how we are seriously behind the power curve in a key area.

And if that’s not enough, the storm track, 3-inches of rain heading our way, and some prospects for the balance of the month.

If you’re not a subscriber, we’ll all just keep our fingers crossed that all fireworks to come will be from retail packaging.

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But we  may have another week or two before the wheels come off. For today, then, a quiet mid summer weekend with a major problem becoming visible in our charts.

Giving us time to reflect on the “bow waves” of the future.

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We open our thinking toolkit – which includes the hypothetical Directorate 153 – today as we wonder what’s been going on at Area 51. And if that might have something to do with the U.S./NATO willingness to egg Russia (and whoever else) into a nuclear showdown.

However, as we face another morning of escalation potential in the Middle East in 3 hot zones, in Europe along the Ukraine and possibly now the NATO supporters of that war’s frontiers, there’s a new pot about to boil over in maritime territory held by the Philippines – and China wants to expand there oh so badly.

While our view is entirely fictional,; my consigliere has been asking me for months to “…ponder why Victoria Nuland and the other neo-turned-libcons at State are willing to put it “all out there.”

Is it runaway ideology?  Not likely – smart people don’t make moves unless they believe there’s a winnable play to be made.

But, as you will see in today’s speculative journey into the shadowlands of mythical intelligence units, there may be a lot more than a rabbit down this rabbit hole.  Could be aliens are playing us,..

If course there’s the usual news flow to be mined, as well.  So coffee up and let’s ride. We trust you remember of the Wunderwaffen worked out for Germany in WWII?

Into the Twilight Zone of future?

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There was little surprise in the Friday Housing report hitting record highs. See, when a country is locked in a blow off topping process, inflation’s effects are very predictable.

It’s also useful to remind that when inflation makes it appear that prices are going up (which they are) it also means the purchasing power of your money is cratering (which is also true).

There are implications for the U.S. high consumption lifestyle as it rolls forward.

But the fact of weekend headlines like “Housing Prices Hit Record” remind us that we are still on a quest for a  single Holy Number of the Future.  An overall economy’s terminal stochastic function.

We will follow a bit of logic on that as a kickoff today. Before getting into a few meaningful headlines and the ChartPack to wrap up the week.

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