Fed Policy Compression Problems

A rather startling chart in this morning’s ChartPack series.  As we explore a line-up with the prototypical 1929 extreme blow-off and present day market behaviors.  We’ll outline what could be a financially devastating remainder of 2025.

TMB versus MMB. Yeah: Trump Means Business versus Money Means Business.  As long as it’s the War Party’s wars and pandemic plans.  Just freaking dandy.

Still, we pause long enough in our “twice weekly Devolution checks” to offer another chapter in our latest book.  On the art of Downsizing,

But even before that joy and partying breaks out (12 to go!) there’s still this matter of financial collapse and the crater in the JOLTS report ahead of the just out ADP Jobs report.

Oh, and a dilly of a ChartPack, if I do say so…The coming year as the potential to rival the slide into the Great Depression and we have a couple of charts that illustrate that risk.

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Hidden in Plain Sight

We could title this morning’s remarks something generic. Oh, like “How the World really works.” We might do that because how many people would either read (or absorb) a report titled…

“Transactionally-linked, Dynamical Business Model Behavior Using Anomalous Technologies Under Semi-Hierarchical Social Constraints.”

Yeah, it’s a mouthful and a mind full.

Yet, strangely – and this does get strange, 2025 appears to be the year that enough subsections of Ground Truth are being released that a cohesive patchwork of “interlocking conspiracies” might reveal themselves to be operating.

Other than meaning “All the Decks are Stacked” for small “investors” there are lots of other considerations, as well.

A few headlines will warm us up, but these are necessary because they are the telemetry of the (hidden) Dynamical Business Models.

We present this as a “slow but short read.”  Don’t be in a hurry to read through this morning’s report.  Take your time and play with the concepts as we run through them.

Still too obtuse?

Well, how about something shorter?  How’s this for a title, then:  “Understanding Linked Conspiracies.”

Better?

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2025’s Action Plan

This being a holiday, we will be focused mainly on the ChartPack. But we do have a few goodies…  This is the day of remembering what we’re doing and what Life is all about.

While it may sound a bit like Chairman Mao’s criticism-self-criticism, the modern student of management science will find many templates in the corporate world as well.

Our favored approach is pretty simple:  Review the data, compare these with last year, and – having identified gaps – work out a plan to close them in the coming year.

It’s not hard…until, that is, you get around to actually doing it.

Plus, we will share from recent videos we have been taking in that may improve other parts of your life.

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A Long Wave Look Ahead

The long – and larger – cycles in economics is our focus today.  Sure, a few stories off the wires with our (occasionally) acerbic remark.

But with the buzz of the presents wearing off, and perhaps still smarting a bit from our discussion of the economy’s “elevator to nowhere” problem (mythical growth versus inflation adjusted quality of life metrics, this is a good time to pause and reflect on “What next?”

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Earthbound Marvels

Merry Christmas and happy Chanukah! There wasn’t going to be a column today, but the urge to write was running strong so here we are…

We will pass on most (but not all) of the daily news flow.  Plus we still have the rest of the week to get through…

And, above all, we are keeping an eye on “named days” because Earthquakes, just to name one class of news event, have a way of getting “holiday names” pinned to them, Good Friday in 1964 and the Boxing Day quake, if you don’t remember Banda Aceh.

Today?  What I hope passes muster of science-based speculation into the recent flurry of activity in the skies.  Which is kind of appropriate, given the date.  Things in the sky have a way of “leading wise men”.

Oh, the website winner is announced, too.

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A Website Under the Tree

George announces plans to “play Santa” for one lucky subscriber this coming week. As we will be giving away a whole website with hosting. This would make the perfect gift for someone interested in the link between genetics and diet.  Why, done right, this could launch the lucky winner (who ideally would be “medically-minded”) into orbit. I can picture a YouTube channel, podcast, or even books to come from this.  Maybe money, too.

This website is already “roughed in” over here.  The niche is the under-developed space between genetic predispositions and what people actually eat.  And how it’s all tied-in to long-term health.

A strange story behind how it arose (one of my “dream things’). But, already using some of the principles (which come with the site) I’ve lost 5-pounds since Thanksgiving.  But wait!  There’s more!  I will also provide the first year of basic site training, as well.

If you like medicine, like to cook, and like to share?  This is your present, needing only to be claimed.

Open only to subscribers and the winner will be pulled randomly from the list of interested parties (if any – remember this is all just a hair-brained idea so far…)

Open to subscriber’s only. Application deadline is Tuesday noon.

– – –

The arrival of Winter assures us another season will be along. But lingering is whether the political weather will really change.  A point the continuation of government (without a shutdown) does bring to mind.

A stroll through headlines as we slow our roll into the holiday and this morning’s ChartPack, too

Thus, two cups ought to do it.  And leave some goodies out for the reindeer.

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Prospects for a Digital GlobalRev

Want to build a counter to the Weapons of Mass Deception? Today we examine the Tower of Babel, and the role of conceptually extensible, functional, peer-to-peer social networks (without censoring middlepersons and dataware), In order to think a bit in guerilla terms about meaningful digital change.

With $37 /$158 trillion of debt and climbing unsustainably can you even question whether the system is broken? (Ahem. Seriously?)

Present UAP hysteria and the recent election aside, there is a growing demand for change, as we see it: signs of a global revolution based on peer-to-peer internet use is one possible path. Future risk is amplified here in late 2024 by the number of countries facing regime change and close calls of state, just in the last month.

We count Canada, Germany, Ukraine, Russia, Georgia, Syria, Taiwan, and South Korea (8) enumerated countries and in “governance hot water.” Can the American losers of 2024 leave peacefully?.

Besides our own country, the European Union which is entering the “high social cost” of their open borders fiasco, too.  There, like the U.S.  Synthetic Growth may have sounded like a good idea, early on.  But over time, the initially stimulative effects of SynGrowth wash out.

What’s left is not only a pile of bills (since new populations require investment). But also there’s the matter of the changing internal expectations of a country’s NuPop. Cats or dogs for dinner?

More on this, as we’re kicking it – waiting for this afternoon’s Big Rate Reveal.  Which – if our judgment of the Fed is anywhere near right – could be a disappointment for the Bulls.

Drilldown in our morning ChartPack. Where the market action Tuesday might be a pre-shock of more downside to come. Expect a “buy the rumor” upside open.

Collapse closing in?  Mean as people get the message that “things are changing” and there’s no one at the wheel?  Especially you know who.

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Woo-Woo and the Land Grab

Woo-woo in the weather and the energy impact of the near-east mess highlight today’s perspective.  Because the parties are lining up to get as much of (the former) Syria as each can That’s prime energy-transportation real estate down the road.

The woo-woo is where we start in our Focus section, though. Because something odd has been going on.

But wait! There’s more: the Consumer Price report on Inflation is out And markets are anxious for some clarity here At least if you missed our note on the Fed going political with unjustified rate drops going into the election Piper needs to be paid?

That’s where we get into the ChartPack, too. So, a lot of material and many things in motion here just 14 days until Christmas and Hanukah begins…

Put on the pot – there’s so much to go over this morning, the report runs north of 4,000 words.

How long to read it?  “Reading 4000 words can take anywhere from ;an hour to two hours depending on the individual’s reading speed, the complexity of the text, and how focused they are while reading.

Plan three cups or a fresh pot.

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’25 Preview: Markets, Data and Fuse Events

Over the past week with our consigliere, some thoughts on near-term future have evolved. Strangely, the year ahead is looking more bi-polar than ever.  The “Reasonable Middle” is still missing in action.

A pick up in the general news flow is cited, too. We begin with today’s ADP report and then launch into a world of yet another play for regime change by some of the forces that brought you Ukraine.

Then there’s our ChartPack.  Which keeps defying gravity. To the point where you’d think the song in the musical Wicked was the new theme in finance.

Fun morning?  Well, tell me what your idea of a good time is, Mr. de Sade?

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Danger for the Elves

A stock market event we referred to as the “slaughter of the elves” took place a few years back.  2018, but that’s from memory, and with enough turkey in the bloodstream, recall is a bit fogged.

Still, desperate people (not wanting to leave office) and people who want to undercut whoever follows (ahem…) may be driven to desperate acts.

With markets setting a new record in our Aggregate Index it’s easy to make the case that we can keep rising forever.  Still, there’s this stuff called “gravity” and this other thing called financial reporting.  ‘ner the twain shall meet again?

Which gets us to noodling on what kind of month is will turn out to be.  A short cup’s worth though.  Don’t want to “slow your roll” in the click festival, right?

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Downsizing Book Begins, Black Friday Paranoia

Root Canal Tuesday leads to Coast-to-Coast Wednesday night which then segues into Turkey Thursday around here. But before we roll, some important housekeeping items for even our non-subscribers to the $40/year Peoplenomics site.

Safe Computing Reminders:  We are at “peak hacking” between now and early January.  Don’t open emails you aren’t expecting.

Next, make sure all of your software is up to date.  This can be a bit daunting since Microsoft is “slow-rolling” the Win11 release of 24H2.  As a result, many Win11 users are still on 23H2.

Similarly, make sure your browser(s) are up to date and set your security preferences.

Finally – and now we’re into the “Paranoia can be useful” part:  There is a small, but nevertheless non-Zero chance that one of America’s “un-friends” could use the long holiday weekend to wreak havoc on us – as in the U.S.

Put yourself in the position of, oh, China and you want Taiwan.  What better weekend than to take down DNS servers and go for a massive cyber-attack than Black Friday, eh?

Most people don’t realize how the Domain Name System works.  But, the short version is that when you type a website name into your browser address line, that name is send to what’s called a DNS server.  The name is then routed to a specific numerical Internet address.

One simple way to wreck e-commerce, therefore, is to attack these DNS servers.

Should something like this ever happen, you would not be able to use banking or online shopping.  Because of security concerns, the IP addresses of secure institutions is seldom shared.

A few sites, like this one (since one of my books, Broken Web that was written in 2012 warned of it) understand the risks of DNS and denial of service attacks.

In the event of an actual (computing) emergency, we have paid the extra dough to have a “static IP address.”  Please make a note of it:

http://190.92.156.129

You (verging on becoming a compu-geek) will notice that this is NOT a secure website.  Because the SSL (secure socket layer) involves still more computery things.

Should anything go terribly wrong with the web, we plan to continue posting and with tons of radio and satellite video downlink capacity we can bring up if need be, meaning we may be able to get a handle on things, we might still be here….

Yes, of course this is paranoia and we pray nothing happens.  BUT foreign governments, a world full of crooks, and even factions within our own country (think false flag ops) have different than Constitutional agendas.

Safe clickings and pass the gravy!

For ham radio ops: 7.299 MHz lower sideband at:15 and :45 past the hour. Recognition code “business model”.  With a hat-tip to William of the Radio Ranch for quantifying some of these plans.

Now, for Peoplenomics subscribers, the rest of the morning’s news and the financial ChartPack.

All others are returned to their “regularly scheduled programming.”

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