We will know (for sure) tomorrow. But one thing seems clear: our models of the financial future are poised for a major decline in the next week or two.
Not that it will happen: No one knows the future. But money does call the tune, so should be amusing to see what the “bid is.”
A few headlines but the real work is in the ChartPack today. When in doubt? BrainAmp.
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This is what happens when you run afoul lessons in my recent book “The 100-Year Toaster.“ Companies make decisions as they mature to increasingly benefit executives and shareholders while the original Customers get screwed. I could insert a book-length treatise on this cyclical aspect of the SDLC, but you wouldn’t read it, so where is the gain?
Much of the time, things roll along for several iterations of corporate-centered decision-making, but in the end, the will of the Customers will prevail. Their needs will be met. Or, they will move on. Microsoft is at such a “soft knee” of future right now.
This is a tale involving the guts of computer programming. And how demanding a particular piece of physical hardware (TPM) will likely – over time – merely speed up the process of proprietary operating system declines.
If it evolves (as we expect) it will be driving more transitions to Linux and OpenSource. Still, at its core, it’s because the implicit 100-Year Toaster rule (that you don’t screw the people who put you on the map) was first deprecated and then taken out back for a smoke at the wall.
A few headlines and sizing up the Chinese A.I. stock market jitters – along with the U.S. Fed decision this afternoon in our ChartPack, too. 24-charts for you this morning.
Between which, we will be noodling whether “giving MSFT more time before reformatting our stack of i7 non-TPM Win10 machines to Linux” is merely Fool’s Hope.
Mouse click speeds and my number of typo’s per minute couldn’t give a rip, one way or the other. Which is a terrible Big Truth for marketers to face…
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Ah, the headlines – sounds like government waste. But today we have a dandy example of weaponized accounting to kick off the neurons.
And, after that, we’ll consider the odds of a major downside Monday which floated to the top of today’s ChartPack.
Now toss lightly with a sprinkling of politics and…gee, looks like the chemistry and water treatment term “settling time” for a change.
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Can we learn something about markets from noticing how people “forget” things? Over a hundred years ago, some basic research into human psychology laid some important groundwork. Which we rip through, helped by our A.I. accomplice (research helper).
This is a neat bit of research because it points out one of the more promising branches of A.I. deployment. Namely, how humans can find a great deal of “tillable soil” by focusing less on silver bullet (singular) solutions (to all that ails us). Instead, we hope there’s much more to be “deep learned” from exploring interdisciplinary contexts and learning templates.
Also today, the ChartPack looks at how the Day After Biden worked out in markets. Not much grieving, by the look of it. But the Ebbinghaus/Ure work has thrown off a very useful work product – a new way of looking at markets – in the ChartPack…
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Or, how an obscure paper on complexity in computer programming and committee generation showed us what to expect in post-fire California. Yep, a big one to wrap our heads around. because this one defines a great deal of what to expect in the modern world.
Toss in the market results in the extensive ChartPack, and certainly, a good time will be had by all…
If you are into practical implicates of socio-cybernetic modeling, then partner, this one’s for you.
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In our Focus today, a discussion of how to improve personal decision-support. See, all of us who are life-long learners sometimes lose focus on the importance of “personal product development.”
Before we tackle that, however, Consumer Prices just out. And yes, they’re up.
In the ChartPack today ventures into financial pugilism as the Future will “duke it out” with Inauguration this coming Monday.
There’s a lot to weigh in here, so let’s start with the anchor..
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Not widely mentioned anywhere is that this Future was clearly seen almost a month ago. While there are many technologies that presently “look at Future” the success I speak of was specifically via remote viewing.
Plus, with the market weakness Friday, a study of our ChartPack today will be most interesting as well.
A number of headlines – though you can pick these up many places – are also worth a mention not for their specifics, so much as how they begin to weight the future into certain potential outcomes.
With that, pour a cup and let’s dig into it.
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A rather startling chart in this morning’s ChartPack series. As we explore a line-up with the prototypical 1929 extreme blow-off and present day market behaviors. We’ll outline what could be a financially devastating remainder of 2025.
TMB versus MMB. Yeah: Trump Means Business versus Money Means Business. As long as it’s the War Party’s wars and pandemic plans. Just freaking dandy.
Still, we pause long enough in our “twice weekly Devolution checks” to offer another chapter in our latest book. On the art of Downsizing,
But even before that joy and partying breaks out (12 to go!) there’s still this matter of financial collapse and the crater in the JOLTS report ahead of the just out ADP Jobs report.
Oh, and a dilly of a ChartPack, if I do say so…The coming year as the potential to rival the slide into the Great Depression and we have a couple of charts that illustrate that risk.
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We could title this morning’s remarks something generic. Oh, like “How the World really works.” We might do that because how many people would either read (or absorb) a report titled…
“Transactionally-linked, Dynamical Business Model Behavior Using Anomalous Technologies Under Semi-Hierarchical Social Constraints.”
Yeah, it’s a mouthful and a mind full.
Yet, strangely – and this does get strange, 2025 appears to be the year that enough subsections of Ground Truth are being released that a cohesive patchwork of “interlocking conspiracies” might reveal themselves to be operating.
Other than meaning “All the Decks are Stacked” for small “investors” there are lots of other considerations, as well.
A few headlines will warm us up, but these are necessary because they are the telemetry of the (hidden) Dynamical Business Models.
We present this as a “slow but short read.” Don’t be in a hurry to read through this morning’s report. Take your time and play with the concepts as we run through them.
Still too obtuse?
Well, how about something shorter? How’s this for a title, then: “Understanding Linked Conspiracies.”
Better?
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This being a holiday, we will be focused mainly on the ChartPack. But we do have a few goodies… This is the day of remembering what we’re doing and what Life is all about.
While it may sound a bit like Chairman Mao’s criticism-self-criticism, the modern student of management science will find many templates in the corporate world as well.
Our favored approach is pretty simple: Review the data, compare these with last year, and – having identified gaps – work out a plan to close them in the coming year.
It’s not hard…until, that is, you get around to actually doing it.
Plus, we will share from recent videos we have been taking in that may improve other parts of your life.
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The long – and larger – cycles in economics is our focus today. Sure, a few stories off the wires with our (occasionally) acerbic remark.
But with the buzz of the presents wearing off, and perhaps still smarting a bit from our discussion of the economy’s “elevator to nowhere” problem (mythical growth versus inflation adjusted quality of life metrics, this is a good time to pause and reflect on “What next?”
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Merry Christmas and happy Chanukah! There wasn’t going to be a column today, but the urge to write was running strong so here we are…
We will pass on most (but not all) of the daily news flow. Plus we still have the rest of the week to get through…
And, above all, we are keeping an eye on “named days” because Earthquakes, just to name one class of news event, have a way of getting “holiday names” pinned to them, Good Friday in 1964 and the Boxing Day quake, if you don’t remember Banda Aceh.
Today? What I hope passes muster of science-based speculation into the recent flurry of activity in the skies. Which is kind of appropriate, given the date. Things in the sky have a way of “leading wise men”.
Oh, the website winner is announced, too.
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George announces plans to “play Santa” for one lucky subscriber this coming week. As we will be giving away a whole website with hosting. This would make the perfect gift for someone interested in the link between genetics and diet. Why, done right, this could launch the lucky winner (who ideally would be “medically-minded”) into orbit. I can picture a YouTube channel, podcast, or even books to come from this. Maybe money, too.
This website is already “roughed in” over here. The niche is the under-developed space between genetic predispositions and what people actually eat. And how it’s all tied-in to long-term health.
A strange story behind how it arose (one of my “dream things’). But, already using some of the principles (which come with the site) I’ve lost 5-pounds since Thanksgiving. But wait! There’s more! I will also provide the first year of basic site training, as well.
If you like medicine, like to cook, and like to share? This is your present, needing only to be claimed.
Open only to subscribers and the winner will be pulled randomly from the list of interested parties (if any – remember this is all just a hair-brained idea so far…)
Open to subscriber’s only. Application deadline is Tuesday noon.
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The arrival of Winter assures us another season will be along. But lingering is whether the political weather will really change. A point the continuation of government (without a shutdown) does bring to mind.
A stroll through headlines as we slow our roll into the holiday and this morning’s ChartPack, too
Thus, two cups ought to do it. And leave some goodies out for the reindeer.
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