Problemology: Fed Ahead

The deeper concern is that several warning systems are lining up at once: weakening market breadth, deteriorating state-variance readings, vulnerable moving-average structures, and an Aggregate Index pattern that is beginning to rhyme with prior manic tops. History never repeats perfectly, but it does have a bad habit of reusing familiar machinery when money, leverage, war and policy mistakes arrive together.

That does not mean “sell everything Monday morning.” It means risk has shifted. A bounce could still appear, especially around support and ahead of the Fed, but we would treat strength as suspect until the market proves otherwise. The full ChartPack lays out the likely sequence, the critical levels, and why the next few weeks may matter far more than the daily headlines suggest.