Outlook from the ’29 Replay Model

Odds appear to be increasing that we are entering the larger Wave 3 down in markets.  Not that we won’t rally first; of course we will.

But consider where our Aggregate Index work was on November 8, 2021:  41,953.86 .  Based on the close Tuesday, it had rallied from a low of 30,870.04 June 16th of this year.  In financial market wave theory, this was a drop of  26 percent.

The good news is that since the mid-June low, we had rallied (to last Wednesday) 18.87% which was a fine run.

Today – for entertainment purposes only – we continue looking for clues as to what is likely next.  If you’re thinking “Well, a wave 1 down, a wave 2 up, means we wave 3 down is pending?”  Give yourself a gold star.

Even if we make another rally  into early September (9th) the word “pending” quickly evaporates.

But more as we take a deep dive into financial history to figure out what presentry may have in store for us.

After Durable Goods and a check of the sideshows, of course.

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