The 45-day Technical Picture

I bet you’re wondering what’s ahead of the economy, don’t you?

Well, not to worry, mon ami, we have the answers.  A discussion from Robin Landry who has missed all the big declines like 2008/2009 and 1987 and 2001… and of course our own Trading Model which signaled the present downturn nicely by going to cash on July 3rd.

So here we go…just a few headlines but then a serious drill-down into what to expect in the next 45-days.

Oh, and I didn’t mention, but in the pictures of the bullet holes in my airplane, those pictures are all looking UP from the bottom of the airplane…some people weren’t clear on that.  Yes, I was laying on the hangar floor taking the pics and no one called Greenpeace.

Reader Note: I’ve been invited to chat with George Noory again on Coast to Coast AM on Monday night/Tuesday morning.  It will screw up my sleep pattern, but it’s always fun to chat with George and I expect we’ll have lots of call-in time, too.  Like they used to say – “Check local listings.”

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The Coming "Retirement Crash" (Part 1)

Think the Market have been tough lately?  Only foreplay compared to the larger picture.

What most lack is the follow-thought thinking about what happens to government transfer payments and Social Security when the market enters a protracted Bear.

Everything going on in the world around you is still in pretty good condition.  And as we mentioned in last weekend’s report, container traffic from Asia is actually up a good bit compared with year-ago levels, so the end of the world isn’t here.

And even Monday of this week after the Dow had dropped more than a thousand points, the Baltic Dry Shipping Index was still in the mid 900’s.  This is an index which had been 40 percent lower in 2009.

There is no point wishing for a lower market, it’s baked in the cake.

Around Peoplenomics, though, the next problems becomes our focus.  And that NEXT set of PROBLEMS will be what happens in the event the long wave economic outlook which says this is merely the start of the Second Depression works out to be true?

Coffee, a few headlines, and charts.  Then  we’ll shovel into the “grim stuff.”

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Sunday Special: An Option Radar Oddity

Quick!  What has five graphics plus nine charts?

Normally, we don’t get up and start work at 5 AM on a Sunday, but as shown in our report Saturday, this is anything but a “normal” weekend.

So here’s the plan:

First I’m going to show you how to build your own D.Y.I. OptionRadar  To do this, it helps to be able to know your way around a spreadsheet pretty well, including charting functions with trends.

Secondly, we will discuss the two oddities on the OptionRadar:  Market closure in December and a strange attractor in the S&P 1,450 area.

So much for a weekend off, eh?

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The Long Wave View of this Week’s Market Decline

Good news and bad for you.   The good news is the market is closed on weekends.  The bad news is follow-on downside is possible into Tuesday, at which  point a turnaround is possible.

Even though our Trading Model has been short 7 out of the last 8 weeks, it’s still a worrisome possibility in our charts that this is a Wave 1 down, not a IV correction before a final romp higher.  We’ll give you the trading targets and the charts in a minute. 

The real problem we all face is this:  Your retirement is under attack in a serious way now, a topic we will cover more in coming weeks.  Whether by handing it out to immigrants, or the falling rates of return due to low interest rates, retirements are not looking good.

The short-term problem with the future is that it’s a “negotiation” and all the interested parties who have some skin in the game will try to push things one way, or the other.

What to do? 

We skip our usual headlines this morning and propose a novel course of action for the Fed to take before its next meeting.  It’s a longish report since I’m distilling it all down to the bare essentials as best I can.  But as our long-running Global Index shows, the global finance is a closed system.  And we’re all locked in this prison cell, like it or not.

We will attempt an integration of market technical analysis, information analytics, futuring, and a discussion of what the real-time present economic condition of America is.

Three cups and maybe four worth.

Note to New Readers:  If you are not familiar with “long waves” in economies, please see the wiki entry here for a discussion.

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